Capital Economics EMs

Insights and research on emerging markets from Capital Economics. Subscribe: Follow our other accounts:

[Tony Tassell @TonyTassell]

Turkey needs a significant adjustment in the lira - opinion column from @peach_liam of @CapEconEmerging https://t.co/RVluMejmR7

[Vivien Lou Chen @vivienlouchen]

I wrote this in October but credit goes to Capital Economics and Neil Shearing. #psychic https://t.co/mw2bohZaIA

[Capital Economics China @CapEconChina]

We're hiring!

Over the past month we've published on China's power cuts, dev debt, the 10y property outlook, decoupling, port backlogs, mon pol...

If you're an economist and interested in these issues, we'd like to hear from you. (Role is in Singapore)
https://t.co/QTYvLSQ1Km

[Ben Arnold de Vera @benarnolddevera]

In @InquirerBiz’s poll, only Capital Economics’ @ghleather77’s September inflation forecast (an outlier because the majority projected 5-5.2%) was correct.

[The Banker @TheBanker]

[Video] We discuss the wider implications of #China’s central bank #digitalcurrency with Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics

Free to view: https://t.co/4B7BdqeCJ3 #CBDCs @CapEconomics

[Capital Economics @CapEconomics]

We're on Substack! Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is sharing his weekly note via a new Substack newsletter, starting with this week’s take on the problems associated with the highly polarised global debate about inflation’s return. https://t.co/Y8UpMa2xLV

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

Analysts from Capital Economics, a consultancy, reckon that China's statistics have looked particularly fishy since 2012 https://t.co/9AU6yZ03eb

[Capital Economics China @CapEconChina]

For China’s export sector, the rise in demand for facemasks, webcams and the like in response to the pandemic has almost entirely offset the collapse in global demand for everything else. Extraordinary (though it probably won't last).

[Alex Holmes @AlexCapEcon]

The Capital Economics team won 5 of the 12 available awards in Asia, including Singapore, Korea, the Philippines, Malaysia and New Zealand

[Capital Economics Commodities @CapEconComms]

CE #Commodities team scoop 9 awards for accuracy of 2019 price forecasts.

https://t.co/dI77sfN7sA

[Capital Economics EMs @CapEconEmerging]

The Capital Economics Asia team won 5 of the 12 Forecast Accuracy awards from Consensus Economics last week. Some fantastic work over the past year.

[Consensus Economics @ConsensusEcon]

We are pleased to announce the winners of our 2019 Forecast Accuracy Awards for the Asia Pacific region. Please see the following link for more details #GDP #Inflation https://t.co/9RblKzf027

[Capital Economics EMs @CapEconEmerging]

among other things, demonetisation looks more painful in the data now.

More (paywall): https://t.co/d9c3Rak4TQ

[Capital Economics EMs @CapEconEmerging]

India's stats office just made some really quite large revisions to the last three years' GDP

[Capital Economics China @CapEconChina]

Two distinct trends in China this past week: Infection numbers are improving. Economic numbers are not. Passenger traffic is down 84% y/y, car sales 92%, cinema tickets 99% property sales 83%.

Plenty of data though. Charts here: https://t.co/NKfsSB2g8E

[Capital Economics EMs @CapEconEmerging]

We've just published our latest outlook. After abrupt slowdowns in 2019, growth in many EMs will pick up this year. But recoveries will be weaker than many are anticipating. And we think that growth in China will slow as property construction cools. https://t.co/DDecr9yZTC

[Capital Economics Global @CapEconGlobal]

3 Key Takeaways from our 2050 World #GDP Rankings: 1) China fails to overtake the US as the world's largest economy. 2) Indonesia, India & Philippines leap up the rankings. 3) Italy drops out of the top 10. #worldin2050

See our Long Term Global Outlook: https://t.co/iYhuaXsSSK

[Capital Economics EMs @CapEconEmerging]

Countries in Africa and Emerging Asia are set to be worst, and most quickly, affected by climate change. This adds to other structural headwinds that many EMs face in the coming decades.

Read more in our Global Economics Focus here (paywall): https://t.co/8kYkATKnd3

[Capital Economics EMs @CapEconEmerging]

The November #PMIs point to diverging prospects for EM manufacturers. Conditions appear to be improving in Emerging Asia but deteriorating in Emerging Europe. #EMchartoftheday

See more here (paywall): https://t.co/uMX9zG2SFv

[Capital Economics EMs @CapEconEmerging]

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) left its key rate at 13.50% today, preferring instead to use unconventional measures to boost the economy. We suspect that most of these policies will fail, prompting a rate cut in late 2020.

See more here (paywall): https://t.co/z4I5pMP4LV

[Capital Economics EMs @CapEconEmerging]

Data from @Hacienda_Arg show that Argentina's government owe over $60bn next year. We expect haircuts on some local-law debt and international bonds. Average recovery values are likely to be around 50%. #EMchartoftheday

See more here (paywall): https://t.co/z7foOgEB4O