Liam Peach

Senior EM economist covering Russia, Turkey and Eastern Europe @CapEconEmerging 🇬🇧

[Vladimir Vano @vladimirvano]

RT @EuromoneyConf: @Peach_Liam of @CapEconEmerging speaking on #inflation & #green #transition at @EuroMoney #CEE #Forum 2024 in #Vienna #Austria #emCEEForum

[Liam Peach @peach_liam]

Gulf financing is important, but not a route to permanent macro stability while monetary policy remains so loose. Lira depreciation to 30/$ is looking increasingly plausible in the coming months. It could get there more quickly if the policy shift continues to underwhelm. 4/

[Liam Peach @peach_liam]

Big decision by the CBRT today. Given the scale of the inflation problem, a 500bp hike to 20% is probably necessary, but I fear another underwhelming hike. The slow and steady tightening is pushing the limits on what policymakers can get away with. 1/

[Liam Peach @peach_liam]

But the room for error is now incredibly small. The impression I’m building is that Erdogan still has the CBRT in a straight jacket. Even if rates are raised to 30%, there are serious doubts about whether rates will be kept high for long enough to address Turkey's imbalances. 3/

[Liam Peach @peach_liam]

Striking chart in Poland on private sector credit to GDP in the NBP's latest fin stability report. This is one of the largest credit contractions in EMs atm. Likely due to higher int rates, low housing demand, tighter credit availability and legal risks around FX loan settlement.

[Liam Peach @peach_liam]

My column in the FT today on the policy adjustment that Turkey's economy now needs to make. This starts with a large #lira depreciation. Today's 6% fall vs $ is a positive step and further weakness lies in store. The next step needs to involve a sharp rise in interest rates.

[Financial Times @FT]

Turkey needs a significant adjustment in the lira https://t.co/8fF3RvjmQD | opinion

[Liam Peach @peach_liam]

@bneeditor Russia gas exports likely to be 0.8% of GDP lower this year with current TTF gas prices than if prices had stayed at Sep/Oct level. Will bring CA surplus down to a dangerously low level of 2% GDP by year-end - point at which external rebalancing becomes necessary

[EuromoneyConferences @EuromoneyConf]

@peach_liam from @CapEconEmerging speaking about Energy security: the costs of keeping the lights on at the #emCEEForum

[Liam Peach @peach_liam]

@jakluge I hold a similar view that these macro risks are not being fully appreciated atm. I don’t think Russia needs to get a CA deficit for this to materialise, a surplus of <2% of GDP in 2024/25 will start to bite and necessitate a rebalancing

[Victoria Craig @VictoriaCraig]

So, why is #Russia slashing interest rates when inflation is running at 17% and in an environment where many other global central banks are raising rates?

@peach_liam has all the answers: https://t.co/Nb1mSfBLVh

[Chris Marsh @GeneralTheorist]

Where are the Central Bank of Russia reserves kept? Well, a decent chunk are held as deposits with central banks, the BIS, or the IMF. Indeed, the deposit share of reserves increased sharply in 2018 when they were forced to sell US Treasuries...

@M_C_Klein

[Grzegorz Siemionczyk 🚲 @GSiemionczyk]

Polski sektor przemysłowy ma za sobą okres spektakularnego rozwoju. Przed sobą zresztą też - twierdzi @peach_liam z @CapEconEurope w bardzo dobrej analizie tego fenomenu. Produkcja w PL jest powyżej poziomu, na którym byłaby, gdyby pozostała na przedpandemicznej ścieżce wzrostu.

[European Central Bank @ecb]

Roses are red
Violets are blue
We’ll keep financing conditions favourable
‘Til the crisis is through

#ECBmyvalentine #ValentinesDay

[Narodowy Bank Polski @nbppl]

"Obecny poziom stóp procentowych jest właściwy i najlepiej odpowiada obecnej sytuacji. Jednak w pierwszym kwartale następnego roku możliwe jest dalsze obniżenie stóp. Prowadzimy w NBP odpowiednie analizy możliwych okoliczności i potencjalnych skutków takiego obniżenia”.

[Nataliya Vasilyeva @Nat_Vasilyeva]

Devastating news from Minsk: the Belarusian foreign ministry has stripped dozens of locals journalists working for foreign media of their press accreditation, affecting the entire bureaus of Reuters, AP, AFP, Deutsche Welle. 1/2

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

TOTALLY CRAZY! #Tesla hits $2,000 a share after 378% rally this year ahead of the stock split and as shorts are running away. #TSLA is now up 40% since announcing the stock split without any other major catalyst happening in the meantime.

[Gannon Breslin @gannonbreslin]

“The name of the company, Eastman Kodak Co. It is a cutting edge high-tech generic drug producer out of the Midwest awaiting imminent patent approval on the next generation of COVID vaccines that have both huge military and civilian applications now.”