Capital Market Research

BIS review says as bonds have become "cheap" vs swap, RV funds have been happy to step in. US Treasury ASW longs (long bond vs swap) have risen from $100bn to $300bn in the past year. https://t.co/qcKN2HwdCx

StephenSpratt's tweet photo. BIS review says as bonds have become "cheap" vs swap, RV funds have been happy to step in.

US Treasury ASW longs (long bond vs swap) have risen from $100bn to $300bn in the past year.

https://t.co/qcKN2HwdCx https://t.co/mKn9cpVj3m

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Capital Market Research @CapitalMrktRsch

6 days ago

@kevinnbass And none of this was written with AI?

CapitalMrktRsch retweeted

Kevin Bass

@kevinnbass

6 days ago

I have conducted an audit of Anthropic's finances. What I have found is so shocking that I am calling for a Congressional investigation. Anthropic is not just seeking regulatory capture. It has built a regulatory capture machine that cannot be turned off. Structural financial incentives make it impossible for Anthropic -- I call it the Anthropic Network -- to turn off its own AI doom cycle. It starts with METR. Dario Amodei proposes "third-party evaluators" to assess the risk of Anthropic's models. He proposes METR for this purpose. But METR is financially dependent on the Anthropic's success -- specifically, on the explosive growth of more than $7 billion dollars in Anthropic stock. Dustin Moskovitz invested this stock into Good Ventures Foundation, where it represents the majority of that organization's portfolio. And GVF is the overwhelming funder of the entire Anthropic Network ecosystem. This stock was worth $500 million early last year. It is worth more than $7.7 billion just ~16 months later. METR -- and all of those building a career its parent organizations -- cannot afford to disrupt that growth. Because if Anthropic goes under, many of the organizations that fund METR go under as well. But if Anthropic succeeds, METR and its parent organizations become more richly financed to regulate AI -- something those at METR want very much. The "third-party evaluator" is not "third-party" at all. The evaluator is on Anthropic's payroll. If this were the end of it, that's bad. But that isn't all. The same organizations that fund METR also fund the many organizations, such as the Tarbell Center, that promote AI Doom. The Tarbell Center publishes AI Doom articles in The Verge, Science, LA Times, The Dispatch, TIME, and others. They are selling the problem, and then selling the solution to the problem -- from the same money pile: Anthropic's. All of these organizations are financially dependent on the same exploding $7 billion money pile. As Anthropic grows more and more powerful, its AI Doom Machine grows better and better financed -- louder and louder. Meanwhile, the regulatory regime seeded in METR grows larger to solve the increasingly loud -- now hysterical -- problem of AI Doom that the Anthropic Network itself created. From this standpoint, as Anthropic becomes more powerful, AI might be getting scarier, sure -- but the positive feedback loop also becomes more deafening -- independent of objective facts. This itself is an objective fact. The deafening AI Doom is part of an business model, that, as it expands, so too does the AI Doom messaging -- there is simply more money to do it. But the problem also goes in the other direction: If Anthropic dies, the Regulatory Regime and the AI Doom Machine are crippled or die. Neither METR nor Tarbell nor the other organizations in the Anthropic Network can allow that to happen. Hence, neither METR or the AI Doom Machine can be trusted to provide independent assessments of Anthropic's models or AI more broadly. They simply are not organizations independent of Anthropic. And Anthropic cannot detach itself from METR or Tarbell or countless other safety orgs (not shown here), either, because they drive hype for the models and the possibility of eventual regulatory capture, and Anthropic will not give that up willingly. What's more, the people at all of these organizations are all the same ecosystem, the same community. They just shuffle between organizations. The Anthropic Network is therefore, so long as it is successful, locked into a self-amplifying feedback loop inside an ideological monoculture. And that feedback loop is winning. That's what Jacob Coxon is. China is keeping messaging tight. That is why optimism for AI is so high in China. America has Anthropic: a massive company pushing anti-AI propaganda at a state level. Anthropic will either create hysteria until American AI slows down and China wins, or it will create fractures throughout American society with severe political consequences. Ironically, because of the structural financial incentives underpinning the Anthropic Network, it has become the same kind of self-amplifying virus that it fantasizes AI to become in the future -- while hiding its tracks just as carefully. It is the mirror of the same AI virus that it hypothesizes to consume America. Anthropic's business model, models itself after the very thing it claims to fear. Except Anthropic's ideology infects humans, not computers. Congress must investigate. Evidence and Github in next post. Then some supplementary figures.

$kevinnbass's tweet photo. I have conducted an audit of Anthropic's finances. What I have found is so shocking that I am calling for a Congressional investigation. Anthropic is not just seeking regulatory capture. It has built a regulatory capture machine that cannot be turned off. Structural financial incentives make it impossible for Anthropic -- I call it the Anthropic Network -- to turn off its own AI doom cycle. It starts with METR. Dario Amodei proposes "third-party evaluators" to assess the risk of Anthropic's models. He proposes METR for this purpose. But METR is financially dependent on the Anthropic's success -- specifically, on the explosive growth of more than $7 billion dollars in Anthropic stock. Dustin Moskovitz invested this stock into Good Ventures Foundation, where it represents the majority of that organization's portfolio. And GVF is the overwhelming funder of the entire Anthropic Network ecosystem. This stock was worth $500 million early last year. It is worth more than $7.7 billion just ~16 months later. METR -- and all of those building a career its parent organizations -- cannot afford to disrupt that growth. Because if Anthropic goes under, many of the organizations that fund METR go under as well. But if Anthropic succeeds, METR and its parent organizations become more richly financed to regulate AI -- something those at METR want very much. The "third-party evaluator" is not "third-party" at all. The evaluator is on Anthropic's payroll. If this were the end of it, that's bad. But that isn't all. The same organizations that fund METR also fund the many organizations, such as the Tarbell Center, that promote AI Doom. The Tarbell Center publishes AI Doom articles in The Verge, Science, LA Times, The Dispatch, TIME, and others. They are selling the problem, and then selling the solution to the problem -- from the same money pile: Anthropic's. All of these organizations are financially dependent on the same exploding $7 billion money pile. As Anthropic grows more and more powerful, its AI Doom Machine grows better and better financed -- louder and louder. Meanwhile, the regulatory regime seeded in METR grows larger to solve the increasingly loud -- now hysterical -- problem of AI Doom that the Anthropic Network itself created. From this standpoint, as Anthropic becomes more powerful, AI might be getting scarier, sure -- but the positive feedback loop also becomes more deafening -- independent of objective facts. This itself is an objective fact. The deafening AI Doom is part of an business model, that, as it expands, so too does the AI Doom messaging -- there is simply more money to do it. But the problem also goes in the other direction: If Anthropic dies, the Regulatory Regime and the AI Doom Machine are crippled or die. Neither METR nor Tarbell nor the other organizations in the Anthropic Network can allow that to happen. Hence, neither METR or the AI Doom Machine can be trusted to provide independent assessments of Anthropic's models or AI more broadly. They simply are not organizations independent of Anthropic. And Anthropic cannot detach itself from METR or Tarbell or countless other safety orgs (not shown here), either, because they drive hype for the models and the possibility of eventual regulatory capture, and Anthropic will not give that up willingly. What's more, the people at all of these organizations are all the same ecosystem, the same community. They just shuffle between organizations. The Anthropic Network is therefore, so long as it is successful, locked into a self-amplifying feedback loop inside an ideological monoculture. And that feedback loop is winning. That's what Jacob Coxon is. China is keeping messaging tight. That is why optimism for AI is so high in China. America has Anthropic: a massive company pushing anti-AI propaganda at a state level. Anthropic will either create hysteria until American AI slows down and China wins, or it will create fractures throughout American society with severe political consequences. Ironically, because of the structural financial incentives underpinning the Anthropic Network, it has become the same kind of self-amplifying virus that it fantasizes AI to become in the future -- while hiding its tracks just as carefully. It is the mirror of the same AI virus that it hypothesizes to consume America. Anthropic's business model, models itself after the very thing it claims to fear. Except Anthropic's ideology infects humans, not computers. Congress must investigate. Evidence and Github in next post. Then some supplementary figures.$

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CapitalMrktRsch retweeted

Kevin Bass

@kevinnbass

6 days ago

== Anthropic equity, the donated stake, and the accounts that pay Coefficient's grants == Claim: Anthropic's Series H release (May 28 2026) names Jane Street and D.E. Shaw Ventures among the investors; individual amounts are not disclosed. Why it matters: Fixes the Series H investor list that the panel and the $965B valuation rest on, and shows the firm-level Jane Street link to the lab whose staff METR names as donors. Source: https://t.co/9T7bg47BLu Claim: Forbes (Nov 7 2025, Phoebe Liu) put the Moskovitz–Tuna Anthropic stake at "an estimated $500 million". Why it matters: The only published dollar estimate of the donated stake; it is the left bar of the chart and the '$500M' in the title. Source: https://t.co/nFQh0kIrvA Claim: Forbes, quoting Cari Tuna: the stake "was moved into a nonprofit vehicle in early 2025" to "dispel any perception of conflict of interest". The vehicle is not named. Why it matters: Establishes that the stake was donated in early 2025 and that Tuna gave conflict-of-interest as the reason; the vehicle is unnamed, which is the question the rest of the stakes rows try to close. Source: https://t.co/nFQh0kIrvA Claim: Jaan Tallinn told Postimees (Feb 2026) that he is an Anthropic board observer rather than a director. Why it matters: Tallinn, METR's other large early funder through SFF, is an Anthropic board observer by his own account; the figure says 'observer', never 'director'. Source: https://t.co/151k4qj7H1 Claim: Forbes reports that Eric Schmidt's family office, Hillspire, bought 20% of D.E. Shaw & Co.; Schmidt's Forbes profile does not mention Anthropic. Why it matters: Links Schmidt, a Series A investor and METR supporter through Schmidt Sciences, to D.E. Shaw, whose venture arm joined Series H; the figure uses Forbes' exact 20%. Source: https://t.co/8BsGDQNO46 Claim: Anthropic's Series A release names the Center for Emerging Risk Research (now Macroscopic Ventures) as an investor; its Series B release names it again. Amounts undisclosed. Why it matters: CERR/Macroscopic is both an Anthropic Series A and B investor and a funder of Redwood and Longview, two of METR's intermediaries. Source: https://t.co/1mFgdTyQG1 Claim: Dustin Moskovitz (Good Ventures Foundation, EIN 46-1008520) — no private-stock contribution in FY2025 (Jul 2024–Jun 2025): Schedule B lists one non-cash gift, publicly traded securities, $1,395,695,354, received 2025-06-30, from the Dustin A Moskovitz Remainder Interest Trust; plus $150,027 from Beneficial AI Foundation USD (2025-06-30, IRS 990-PF filing) Why it matters: Good Ventures Foundation's own FY2025 Schedule B lists two contributors and one non-cash gift of publicly traded securities; no private stock. So the shares had not reached the 990-PF filer by June 2025. Source: https://t.co/vN2TNkiKxv Claim: Dustin Moskovitz (Good Ventures Foundation, EIN 46-1008520) — no Anthropic holding named: corporate-stock schedule lists 406 public issuers (3i Group … Alphabet Class A $125.5M …); other investments only by category (private equity $1,339,422,459; venture capital $259,560,574; SAFE agreements $7,500,000; hedge funds $906,041,941; private credit $658,286,371; real assets $410,252,102; fixed income $322,362,362) USD (2025-06-30, IRS 990-PF filing) Why it matters: The foundation's investment schedules name 406 public issuers and no Anthropic holding; indirect exposure through funds cannot be excluded. Source: https://t.co/vN2TNkiKxv Claim: Alexander Berger (CEO, Coefficient Giving), on X — "He's since donated his stake (and not to us)" (2025-12-18, self-statement) Why it matters: Coefficient's CEO says the stake was donated and 'not to us', so Coefficient's own entities are out; the recipient is still unnamed. Source: https://t.co/DVEm9MQSvu Claim: Dustin Moskovitz, on Bluesky (@moskov.goodventures.org) — "GV is itself a beneficiary of that wave (via Anthropic and a number of other investments)" (2026-08-26, self-statement) Why it matters: Moskovitz says Good Ventures is 'itself a beneficiary' of the coming wave of AI wealth 'via Anthropic', i.e. the giving complex expects to gain when Anthropic gains. Source: https://t.co/b80SaXM4xJ Claim: Forbes (Phoebe Liu), US original — the couple give through Good Ventures Foundation "plus more in donor-advised funds"; the foundation's largest holdings do not include Anthropic (2025-11-07, press) Why it matters: Forbes says the couple give through Good Ventures Foundation 'plus more in donor-advised funds', which is why the DAF route is on the figure. Source: https://t.co/Dhm5r0tryM Claim: Dustin Moskovitz (Forbes "True Net Worth" reranking, Matt Durot and Chase Peterson-Withorn) — less than 0.8 (donated "last year") % (Forbes estimate) (2026-04-20, Forbes-Bloomberg estimate) Why it matters: Forbes' 'less than 0.8%' is the only percentage bound found; 0.8% of the $965B Series H valuation is the $7.7B ceiling on the figure. Source: https://t.co/kUaD2IEqLF Claim: Dustin Moskovitz, on Bluesky (@moskov.goodventures.org) — "We fund people like METR and Redwood who have been the ones writing the reports on the agent swarms" (2026-09-11, self-statement) Why it matters: Moskovitz's own words that his giving funds METR and Redwood. Source: https://t.co/jxkKiLJfb5 Claim: Full-text scan of every IRS e-file batch received in 2025 and 2026 for the word "Anthropic" (scripts/irs_anthropic_scan.sh) — no return names a Moskovitz/Tuna entity holding Anthropic; eleven returns mention Anthropic at all: as a vendor or training partner (five 990-EZ/990 filers); Alignment Research Center 2024 990 (program text on the evals spin-out); and four private foundations holding or receiving it: The Laniakea Charitable Foundation (EIN 85-4307164, Milwaukee, FYE 2024-11-30: "ANTHROPIC SPV" $190,872 beside "SITUATIONAL AWARENESS FUND" $20,000,000), Bright Moon Foundation (87-3664806, Bellevue WA: "INVESTMENT-ANTHROPIC" $150,000 in 2024 and 2025 returns), The Nathan Cummings Foundation (23-7093201, New York: "ANTHROPIC, PBC" $1,869,251 among other investments), Commoncrawl Foundation (26-1635908: "Anthropic PBC" as a $250,000 contributor) (2026-09-14, IRS TEOS bulk e-files (index_2025.csv, index_2026.csv; 2025 batches 01–12, 2026 batches 01–07, A–D halves; ≈900,000 returns)) Why it matters: A full-text scan of every IRS e-file received in 2025 and 2026 finds no return naming Anthropic stock held by a Moskovitz or Tuna vehicle; a bounded negative. Source: https://t.co/nn30RKvqLy Claim: Dustin Moskovitz Remainder Interest Trust dated March 10, 2018 (identity, from Meta's 2020 proxy) — the trust that supplies Good Ventures Foundation's largest gifts is identified: trustee Tom Van Loben Sels (also Good Ventures Foundation's assistant secretary and the officer on Coefficient Giving Policy Fund's 990-N); it held 6,830,855 Meta Class B shares in March 2020, the same block earlier held by "The Dustin Moskovitz 2008 Annuity Trust dated March 10, 2008" (Meta 2015 proxy), i.e. the remainder of a ten-year 2008 GRAT; Moskovitz is "trustee, co-trustee, grantor, or beneficiary" shares (2020-04-10, SEC DEF 14A (Facebook, Inc. 2020 proxy, footnote 17; 2015 proxy footnote)) Why it matters: Identifies the family trust that makes the foundation's largest gifts; its holdings are on no public document. Source: https://t.co/NJtcvI2Vjn Claim: Anthropic investor base (NYT, Mike Isaac et al., Sep 3 2026, corrected Sep 4) — no figure for any METR-named funder; "Menlo, Lightspeed and Iconiq now own 1 percent to 2 percent of Anthropic, said three people"; "Anthropic has raised more than $130 billion from roughly 300 investors, according to PitchBook"; "Spark Capital is the only investor with a seat on Anthropic's board" % (2026-09-03, press) Why it matters: The NYT's investor-base reporting gives no percentage for any METR-named funder; nothing in the press resolves the stake. Source: https://t.co/8G0TzAqPdW Claim: Jane Street (WSJ, Jun 20 2026, "Secretive Wall Street Powerhouse Jane Street Seizes the AI Spotlight") — no share count or value for the Anthropic stake; the piece says Jane Street's profits were "helped in part by gains from investments in Anthropic and other private companies" and that its private-investment figure "includes a stake in Anthropic that was purchased in 2024 from the estate of FTX" (2026-06-20, press) Why it matters: The WSJ confirms Jane Street's Anthropic position came partly from the FTX estate sale but gives no current share count. Source: https://t.co/ndpHZiLH7T Claim: Jaan Tallinn (Äripäev "aasta ettevõtja" profile, Jan 5 2026) — declines to state a percentage: "Meil on väike majapidamine, tiitleid ei kasuta ja protsente ei kuuluta" (We have a small household, we do not use titles and we do not announce percentages); "Äripäevaga suhelnud inimesed oletavad, et portfell on väärt miljardeid" (people who spoke to Äripäev assume the portfolio is worth billions); Metaplanet's investments are run by Rauno Miljand; Anthropic "now worth about $350 billion" (2026-01-05, press (Estonian)) Why it matters: Tallinn declines to state his Anthropic percentage, so his dashed link is 'undisclosed'. Source: https://t.co/zNOIxX5EQN Claim: Moskovitz's SEC filings as a reporting person (CIK 0001549917): which entities hold his shares — the Remainder Interest Trust holds neither Asana nor Kodiak; Asana (Schedule 13D 2022-02-14, 13D/A 2023-11-14 and 2025-08-15): shares held by him personally, by "the Dustin Moskovitz Trust" (Dec 27 2005), a Roth IRA, two Justin Rosenstein trusts he trustees, and 1,720,916 Class A shares held by Good Ventures Foundation over which he holds an irrevocable proxy under an Aug 13 2021 voting agreement; Facebook 13G (2013-02-14): the 2005 Trust, the Dustin Moskovitz 2008 Annuity Trust (Mar 10 2008), the Dustin A. Moskovitz 2009 Trust, Justin Rosenstein trusts, and "The CTF Trust dated December 27, 2012" of which he is co-trustee; Kodiak Sciences 13G/A (2021): the 2005 Trust only; trustee Tom van Loben Sels is a promoter of Apercen Investments LLC (Form D 2010, c/o Apercen Partners LLC, Palo Alto) (2025-08-15, SEC filings (13D, 13D/A, 13G, 13G/A, Form D)) Why it matters: Lists the entities through which Moskovitz holds reporting-company shares; none is shown holding Anthropic. Source: https://t.co/ljA86VRYwZ Claim: Good Ventures Foundation public-stock portfolio, FY2024 vs FY2025 (Part II line 10b schedules, 462 and 406 named issuers) — the endowment's public book is an AI-infrastructure portfolio, repositioned in the transfer year: largest FY2025 holdings TSMC $508,854,795; SK Hynix $399,749,206 (FY2024 $45.3M); Broadcom $290,449,924; Vistra $202,021,342 (new); Micron $184,134,391 (FY2024 $18.1M); Vertiv $178,712,948 (FY2024 $39.0M); Constellation Energy $173,258,859 (new); Advantest $163,827,566 (new); GE Vernova $156,083,905 (new); Amazon $142,874,446 (FY2024 $3.2M); Celestica $141,460,481 (FY2024 $3.9M); Nebius $95,495,098 (new); 58 new positions, 114 exited, incl. Nvidia $535,507,080 sold to $9.2M, Microsoft $504,451,905 → $79,854,699, ASML $385,540,573 → $759,718, Alphabet A $391,740,715 → $125,487,392; no Meta Platforms line in either year USD (2025-06-30, IRS 990-PF filings (FY2024 e-file 202501349349105365; FY2025 e-file 202641359349102829)) Why it matters: Good Ventures' public book at June 2025 is concentrated in AI-infrastructure stocks (TSMC, SK Hynix, Broadcom, Vistra, Micron, Vertiv); the endowment is positioned on the same boom as the lab. Source: https://t.co/nn30RKvqLy Claim: Value Aligned Research Advisors, LLC (SEC CIK 0001963565; Good Ventures Foundation's investment manager, $5,264,377 FY2025) and the VAR AI Funds — the foundation's manager launched a multi-billion-dollar AI hedge fund in the transfer window: "VAR AI Fund, LP" (CIK 0002058384) filed Form D on 2025-03-21 (first sale yet to occur; 3(c)(1)); amended 2026-03-20: $2,834,590,561 sold to 68 investors (3(c)(7)); amended 2026-06-15: $4,346,290,561 sold to 116 investors; "VAR AI Offshore Fund, Ltd." (CIK 0002058569): $622,537,823 to 39 investors by 2026-03-20; executive officers Benjamin Hoskin and David Field, VAR AI Fund GP, LLC; 51 Park Place, Princeton NJ; VARA files quarterly 13F-HR (Aug 2025 onward) and N-PX USD (2026-06-15, SEC Form D / Form D/A; 13F-HR) Why it matters: The foundation's investment manager launched an AI hedge fund in March 2025; $4.35B sold to 116 investors by June 2026. Source: https://t.co/mLZi2T278E Claim: Value Aligned Research Advisors, LLC: 13F-HR holdings, Jun 2025 to Jun 2026 — the manager's reported public-equity book grew from $4,734,560,970 (72 positions, quarter ended Jun 30 2025; TSMC $481M, Nvidia $419M, Micron, Vistra, Vertiv, Alphabet, Intel, Constellation Energy, Broadcom, GE Vernova, Amazon) to $9,944,995,059 (86 positions, Dec 31 2025; Nvidia $1.26B, TSMC, Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, CoreWeave, Lumentum) to $40,111,386,090 (123 positions, Jun 30 2026; Nvidia $5.09B, Alphabet $4.79B, Amazon $4.74B, TSMC $2.15B, Micron $2.01B, Nebius $1.92B, Intel $1.77B, Bloom Energy $1.70B, CoreWeave $1.67B, Broadcom, SanDisk, Vertiv, AMD, ASML, Seagate) USD (2026-06-30, SEC Form 13F-HR (three filings)) Why it matters: The manager's reported public book grew from $4.7B to $40.1B in a year, led by Nvidia, Alphabet and Amazon; no Anthropic, which a 13F would not show. Source: https://t.co/s2vFZwbwLq Claim: Donor-advised-fund sponsors: Schedule M "Securities—Closely held stock" (count, amount) by fiscal year, from IRS e-files — Fidelity Charitable (FYE Jun): FY2023 87 / $265,613,057; FY2024 126 / $228,632,235; FY2025 306 / $464,187,816. National Philanthropic Trust (FYE Jun): FY2023 57 / $90,965,333; FY2024 186 / $279,950,909; FY2025 19 / $1,183,079,981. Vanguard Charitable (FYE Jun): FY2024 9 / $5,152,704; FY2025 12 / $96,652,480. Schwab Charitable/DAFgiving360 (FYE Jun): FY2024 12 / $8,269,327; FY2025 29 / $14,402,947. Silicon Valley Community Foundation (calendar): 2023 3 / $4,956,980; 2024 4 / $2,562,398; 2025 not filed. American Endowment Foundation (calendar): 2024 951 / $64,396,665. Goldman Sachs Philanthropy Fund, Tides: no closely-held line. Not yet filed for the transfer window: SVCF, AEF, Goldman, Tides (calendar 2025, due 2026-11-16) USD (2025-06-30, IRS Form 990 Schedule M (22 returns)) Why it matters: The sweep of DAF sponsors' closely-held-stock intake that narrows where a private-stock gift could have landed; corrected after audit to note line 11 and the 18 e-files on disk. Source: https://t.co/nn30RKvqLy Claim: National Philanthropic Trust (EIN 23-7825575), FY2025 (Jul 2024–Jun 2025): closely-held-stock anomaly — 19 closely-held-stock gifts totalling $1,183,079,981 (average $62.3M), against 186 gifts / $279,950,909 in FY2024 and 57 / $90,965,333 in FY2023; a new year-end investment category "PREFERRED STOCK & CRYPTO" $162,706,505 appears in Schedule D Part VII; Form 8283 appraisals received: 52; NPT states it "seeks to liquidate complex assets as quickly as practical following acceptance" USD (2025-06-30, IRS Form 990 (FY2025 e-file, IRS batch 2026_05A) and https://t.co/8MMQJJ68QU) Why it matters: NPT, one of Coefficient's two named DAF partners, took in $1.18B of closely held stock in 19 gifts in the year covering early 2025. Unattributed; a signal, not an identification. Source: https://t.co/2EXNNJJqkh Claim: Coefficient Giving, "Our grantmaking process" page: recommendations can be submitted to its own grantmaking entity or to named external funding partners — Coefficient names its funding partners: "it submits formal recommendations to our grantmaking entity Coefficient Giving Advisors, Inc, or to one of our external funding partners, such as the Silicon Valley Community Foundation, the National Philanthropic Trust, or the Good Ventures Foundation"; "our external funding partners … conducts its own due diligence and formally approves the grant" (2026-09-14, issuer page) Why it matters: Coefficient's own page names Good Ventures Foundation, SVCF and NPT as the external funding partners that approve its grants, without naming the account principals. Source: https://t.co/V5tUZSY7vK Claim: National Philanthropic Trust, Schedule D Part VII "Closely held equity interests" at year-end — $752,489,888 (FYE 2023-06-30) → $737,806,285 (2024-06-30) → $1,734,031,057 (2025-06-30): a $996M rise in closely-held equity held at year-end in the fiscal year that received $1,183,079,981 of closely-held-stock gifts in 19 contributions USD (2025-06-30, IRS Form 990 Schedule D (three e-files, research/daf-sponsors/)) Why it matters: NPT's closely-held equity held at year-end rose by $996M in the same year; unattributed. Source: https://t.co/ND32SMgsMB Claim: Silicon Valley Community Foundation, calendar 2024 Form 990 Schedule I (3,576 grants) — SVCF granted $1,591,322,838 to National Philanthropic Trust ("General Nonprofit Support") in 2024, i.e. a fund of that size moved from SVCF to NPT; in the same year SVCF granted the Coefficient-network pattern: Constellation Research Center $10,000,000 (confirms the CauseIQ line, GROKREVIEW-D), Longview Philanthropy USA $6,785,866, FAR AI $6,015,000, MATS Research $4,042,029, RAND $2,000,000, Berkeley Existential Risk Initiative $1,514,060, Center for AI Safety $1,050,540, Open Philanthropy $1,000,000, Epoch $600,000, Effective Ventures USA $422,311, Founders Pledge $110,000, Alignment Research Center $50,450, Model Evaluation and Threat Research $20,000, Clarity AI Research (Transluce) $20,000. 2023: Effective Ventures $12,703,880, BERI $4,807,310, FAR AI $4,187,013, Founders Pledge $3,596,000, Open Philanthropy $2,000,000, CAIS $1,455,200, ARC $1,401,000, Redwood $500,000, NPT $7,196,356 USD (2024-12-31, IRS Form 990 Schedule I (e-files research/daf-sponsors/, EIN 20-5205488)) Why it matters: SVCF granted NPT $1.59B in 2024 and Constellation $10M; the account family behind Coefficient's grants moved from SVCF to NPT. Source: https://t.co/sQCje8iYmO

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Capital Market Research @CapitalMrktRsch

6 days ago

@BurggrabenH EV pls…. Says Europe

CapitalMrktRsch retweeted

Quant Science

@quantscience_

7 days ago

Wall Street's most valuable equation in microstructure trading: θ*(θ* − ϕ) = s²G The entire edge comes from the option value of patience. Bookmark this (26 page pdf):

quantscience_'s tweet photo. Wall Street's most valuable equation in microstructure trading:

θ*(θ* − ϕ) = s²G

The entire edge comes from the option value of patience.

Bookmark this (26 page pdf): https://t.co/sbndvjnfUN

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CapitalMrktRsch retweeted

Smartpig

@Smartpigai

7 days ago

2026必须收藏的10个美股博主 1、@aleabitoreddit：AI/半导体供应链深度研究，挖瓶颈和冷门标的。 2、@SVScholar：清华+硅谷背景，长期基本面框架清晰。 3、@bboczeng：半导体与基本面跟踪，市场总结比较理性。 4、@charliebilello：历史数据和图表第一人。 5、@LizAnnSonders：Schwab策略师，宏观板块轮动干货多。 6、@KobeissiLetter：宏观事件拆解快，极端行情必看。 7、@Jason23818126：整合美股信息源、工具和AI选股思路。 8、@qinbafrank：AI+宏观+流动性交叉视角。 9、@jukan05：半导体+韩国市场数据细。 10、@Smartpigai：程序员视角看AI与美股，工具和方法论多。收藏当信息源，不构成投资建议。

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Capital Market Research @CapitalMrktRsch

7 days ago

@saylor What happens when all bitcoin monitors turned to data centers

Capital Market Research @CapitalMrktRsch

7 days ago

@almosttomorrowe @StockMKTNewz Great question but if it’s not take or pay, you can’t finance it

Capital Market Research @CapitalMrktRsch

7 days ago

@InvestingAuth @StockMKTNewz Could? Name something else

Capital Market Research @CapitalMrktRsch

7 days ago

@LeopoldATracker What happens to bitcoin miners, and bitcoin network when he gets priced out from conversion to Data Center?

Capital Market Research @CapitalMrktRsch

7 days ago

@pequityresearch I think the slowdown meant we need more cash $$$$

Capital Market Research @CapitalMrktRsch

7 days ago

@kenmartinboston Yes

Capital Market Research @CapitalMrktRsch

7 days ago

@kenmartinboston Yes x

CapitalMrktRsch retweeted

Curtis Rice

@ahustlersempire

7 days ago

The #inflation no one’s talking about

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CapitalMrktRsch retweeted

INSIDER

@x_insider4

21 days ago

Your backtest is lying to you and you don't even know it. This is the $200K quant stack — rebuilt with Claude in one evening. Full code. Copy it tonight or keep trading noise. https://t.co/9p9cTcxDnE

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Capital Market Research

@CapitalMrktRsch

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