Casey Sprake

Market Strategist at AG Capital. Translator of global macro trends into actionable investment insights. Always asking "what if" to manage risk and cut noise.

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

Data is everywhere, but clarity is rare.

I keep a close eye on what’s happening in the global economy and financial markets, and focus on explaining what it means in practical terms for portfolios and our clients.

Everyone has an opinion on the market, but very few understand what’s actually driving it.

I track the signals, not the noise - rates, liquidity, global flows, turning complex market developments into clear, useful insights that support better investment decisions and client conversations.

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

This is a pretty big signal that India wants to deepen its bond market by competing on tax rather than just yield or inclusion in global indices.

If they also follow through on cutting the 20% withholding tax on interest, you’re suddenly looking at Indian government bonds priced much more like a “developed market carry trade” than a classic EM risk premium story.

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

@Polymarket If they also follow through on cutting the 20% withholding tax on interest, you’re suddenly looking at Indian government bonds priced much more like a “developed market carry trade” than a classic EM risk premium story

[Wandile Sihlobo @WandileSihlobo]

The 12.5% tariffs the U.S. intends to levy on South African goods will be challenging. Still, it is far better than where we are coming from, where South Africa had to face a 30% tariff. In agriculture, some of our competitors, like Australia and New Zealand, will face a similar tariff level. The U.S. remains an important market for South Africa’s agriculture, accounting for around 4% of exports valued at US$15.1 billion in 2025. Citrus, raisins, table grapes, and wine are amongst the most exposed industries. Again, oranges, juices and nuts still have exemption from these tariffs, which helps a bit.

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

Next they’ll ban breathing so they can sell “official FIFA air” at 200 bucks a gulp. Seriously though, I may not be the biggest soccer fan myself, but at what point do these World Cup add‑on costs become so ridiculous that fans just stay home and watch? They are already struggling fill out the stadiums as is

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

@FinanceGhost Curious how you’re thinking about this playing out in practice: does Dis‑Chem respond by doubling down on in‑store experience, or do they have to chase the same delivery arms race and sacrifice margin to keep up?

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

Really smart breakdown. Most people only chase ‘dream properties’, but you’re zooming in on fundamentals- location, cash flow, risk and time horizon. Although if you shift focus towards the Western Cape, it feels like you're cooked either way- whether you're looking to rent or buy😞

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

Inflation, interest rates, and credibility. Not exactly light breakfast radio topics, but incredibly important for every South African right now.

I joined Hot Business with Jeremy Maggs to unpack why a small, pre-emptive interest rate hike could actually prevent a far bigger inflation problem down the line. We discussed the Reserve Bank’s new 3% inflation target, rising fuel and food pressures, and why inflation expectations matter just as much as inflation itself.

It’s a difficult balancing act between protecting households already under pressure and maintaining long-term economic stability.

Catch the full interview below to hear why I believe the SARB’s credibility is facing its first real test:

https://t.co/cTZcKTWkm7

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

@PioneerColumn22 For this year definitely- it has been a masterclass in how strategic turbulence can be more rewarding than keeping the system steady. The incentives are now clearly skewed in that direction.

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

https://t.co/i2zv18SLdz

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

@KabeloWorldWidz My first date with my husband was an ice cream date. The fact it was for an ice cream was why I actually even agreed to meet him. It works 😅

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

@SimonPB SA’s longest-running romance clearly isn’t on Netflix, it’s in the showroom. Our love affair with Toyota just keeps rolling while everyone else fights over the rebound😅

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

@FinanceGhost Imagine signing off that sentence and thinking, ‘Yes, this perfectly captures our operational challenges’😂

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

@AdrianSaville Honestly, at this point I’m just waiting for the fourth horseman to ride down Jan Smuts. Anything else still left to hit Joburg? Jeepers

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

@JvanLogg Weaponized incompetence?

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

@dramadelinquent Same here, I also don’t carry a card (and never will). I prefer my loyalty on aeroplane mode

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

What happens when the world’s economic wiring starts to fray?

Adam Smith’s invisible hand was never meant to wear a Stars and Stripes glove, yet for decades, it effectively did.

American power hard-wired the global economy, and the Hormuz shock has reminded investors just how fragile that wiring has become. In a world where the hegemon is less willing or able to underwrite stability, South African investors, in particular, need to rethink how they manage risk, inflation, and diversification.

The accompanying graph from BCA Research traces the rise and fall of global economic powers from the 1800s through to the projected 2040s, revealing how successive empires shaped the global economy before the United States emerged as the dominant hegemon.

As global power shifts and old assumptions are challenged, what does this mean for investors and the future of markets?

Read the full article below.

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

https://t.co/i2zv18SLdz

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

@JuniorBuffett Crucial timing, before the anticipated El Nino season hits

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

Such an important point: where China and India treated the private sector as a key partner in lifting people out of poverty, South Africa still too often frames business as a threat rather than a catalyst. If we want inclusive growth and jobs at scale, we have to build a social compact that rewards enterprise, investment and risk-taking instead of stifling it.

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

@MichaelJordaan Historically, large marquee IPO's tend to signal the peak of a capex boom...

[Casey Sprake @CaseySprake]

Love this. A solid pre-nup isn’t about anticipating failure, it’s about respecting each other enough to talk honestly about money, protect assets, and avoid future conflict. Do you think couples are becoming more open to seeing marriage contracts as part of modern financial planning rather than a taboo?