Cash With Dara

chasing cheddar 🧑‍🍳

[Cash With Dara @CashWithDara]

One of the biggest questions in general is what are the impacts of ai agent proliferation?

How long will ai agent proliferation take?

How do we measure progress?

What reprices as drivers do or don’t unfold?

Payments in stablecoins + ID thru blockchain and NFTs, what else?

[Cash With Dara @CashWithDara]

@pmarca @TMTLongShort what if… the 🇨🇳 are ✅ and the goal is to build out the kill ⛓️‍💥 and then grow it into a life ⛓️‍💥 and eventually EarthOS to program the 🌍 and beyond 🚀

step 1️⃣ relevant now. Time to think about defining states, drivers, subsequent path, and implications

[Cash With Dara @CashWithDara]

@TMTLongShort More humans are needed initially to implement and develop ai software and hardware. Then many many less are needed.

[Cash With Dara @CashWithDara]

@citrini The government knows they need to properly financially incentivize their private sector partners. If it nationalizes, it deletes the capitalistic incentives that result in national outperformance

[Cash With Dara @CashWithDara]

@CRUDEOIL231 I agree on 3. The Chinese government values control (internally and regionally) above all else.

[Cash With Dara @CashWithDara]

@crux_capital_ @TSDR_Trading Don’t listen to him. You are very good at what you do and you market yourself transparently

[Cash With Dara @CashWithDara]

@TMTLongShort Nice

[Cash With Dara @CashWithDara]

@conksresearch Is that fr?

[Cash With Dara @CashWithDara]

@stevehou When?

[Cash With Dara @CashWithDara]

@edgeofarete @iatskar @gondorfi Ty

[Tropical Value @tropicalvalue]

https://t.co/VIdJMGdygI

[Cash With Dara @CashWithDara]

@tropicalvalue Curious what you think? You should have more followers.

[Cash With Dara @CashWithDara]

@tropicalvalue Amazon, though I do not have real risk behind this call.

Jassy = second founder, +bezos. Conviction by going FCF flat. Close with government. Ripe for AI integration (software & hardware), large moats and critical to economy.

Bonus, Amazon gift card closest thing to US $.

[Cash With Dara @CashWithDara]

@orrdavid The true shape of risk is the probability distribution; volatility is just the second moment (3rd skew, 4th Kurtosis). Higher vol relationship is whatever the shape the curve is at the part the higher vol pushes it out to, which is exponential but not always just squared imo

[Cash With Dara @CashWithDara]

@acemoney21 @ContrarianCurse @JaredKubin ⬇️

[Jared L Kubin @JaredKubin]

🟥Today's "RED BOX" : INTC🟥

If you watched Ep 5... I talk about Red Boxes... there is a monster RED BOX hitting everyone's risk screens today... INTC ... why?

INTC is +25% premkt ... Long Onlys and Hedge Funds funded their crowded memory, optical, and NVDA/AVGOs with the TXNs (see yesterday?) and INTCs of the world... Long Onlys ... my best guess... 50-100bp underweight.... could be more tbh?

These are FORCED buyers at this size and this kind of move ... why?

"tracking error"... every bp higher the red box gets louder on the risk screen… on $5T of benchmarked AUM that's $15-30B of price insensitive demand chasing $3B of daily liquidity…

Layer in HF shorts capitulating = another $1-3B lifting offers(?)

Do the math… 14-18 days of run rate ADV to close the hole…prob 3-5x todays volume?.... and the holders of size? Well you can read about them... are they sellers here? maybe...prob not? Retail and systematics can't absorb this alone

28M shares in the pre-mkt The tape is offerless

Red boxes don't close in a session… they are long grinds until the PM either gets to weight or gets fired

today you're watching the AI barbell become the AI noose in real time 🟥

[Cash With Dara @CashWithDara]

@crux_capital_ Excellent article

[Cash With Dara @CashWithDara]

@OnodaCapital @MidwestHedgie They have the most relationships

[Cash With Dara @CashWithDara]

@Tallow_beach Attempting to read into your response, it’s likely a supply side story, as participants are not uniformed, and if they were unsophisticated, more lenders would likely jump in if they had excess capacity and competitively maintain/drive down rates.

[Cash With Dara @CashWithDara]

@Tallow_beach Thanks 🙏, I appreciate the guidance.

I guessed based on narrative (proliferation of retail leverage) and ur prev tweet.

As a non “basis tradoor” how would you suggest I discern what’s going on / if it matters?

Would you be so kind as to share what you do think is going on?

[Cash With Dara @CashWithDara]

@Tallow_beach What if I think that the price of leverage can increase without the quantity of leverage decreasing because demand is unsophisticated/price insensitive?

I am not a funding trader. Curious if you have thoughts. Sometimes you share your good analysis.