Jasen Castillo

CoDirector @AlbrittonCGS, @BushSchool Texas A&M via OSD Policy, @RANDcorporation, & @UChicago. Fellow @defpriorities. NatSec/threat deflation. Go @Dodgers!

[Jasen Castillo @CastilloJasen]

“What lessons should US decision makers take away after one year of war in Ukraine?”

See my contribution to @defpriorities symposium here: https://t.co/YsyHILdApG #UkraineLessons

Along with @rajan_menon_ @stephenwertheim @EmmaMAshford @stephenWalt @JustinTLogan @BH_Friedman

[Jennifer Kavanagh @jekavanagh]

The era of uncontested U.S. command of the seas is ending, but this is not something to fear.
The U.S. can survive & thrive in a more competitive maritime order--without a bigger navy or more defense spending. I explain for @ForeignPolicy

https://t.co/QEdhcpQvcm

[Jasen Castillo @CastilloJasen]

Wait…this was the guy who said we should blockade the blockade and Iran would buckle under the pressure?!

[Drop Site @DropSiteNews]

Richard Haass, veteran American diplomat and longtime president of the Council on Foreign Relations, says the clock is ticking harder and louder for the U.S. than Iran amid the blockade and closure of Hormuz, and in a larger “strategic sense,” the U.S. is “losing the war.”

“We’ve seen their resilience,” he said of Iran. “We feel the pressure slightly more” than them.

[Jasen Castillo @CastilloJasen]

Aggie SecDef

[Glenn Diesen @Glenn_Diesen]

Former US Secretary of Defence and CIA Director Robert Gates on the failure of considering Russian security concerns:
- "When Russia was weak in the 1990s and beyond, we did not take Russian interests seriously. We did a poor job of seeing the world from their point of view, and of managing the relationship for the long term…. The relationship with Russia had been badly mismanaged after Bush 41 left office in 1993. Getting Gorbachev to acquiesce to a unified Germany as a member of NATO had been a huge accomplishment. But moving so quickly after the collapse of the Soviet Union to incorporate so many of its formerly subjugated states into NATO was a mistake…. Trying to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO was truly overreaching"

[Jasen Castillo @CastilloJasen]

@andrewmichta @united Ditto my flight today from Houston to Santa Fe. Dirty planes and delays without explanation. Frustrating as Premier1K

[Jasen Castillo @CastilloJasen]

@MarkDavis Imagine how Don Drysdale would have responded during the next at bat.

[Ryan Evans @EvansRyan202]

I still don't know who Hasan Piker is and you can't make me learn

[Rosemary Kelanic @RKelanic]

The fact that the China is so far ahead of the U.S. in de-risking from oil is a massive U.S. policy failure.

[Reid Tillman Smith @reidtsmith]

If I had supported this war, I’d be furious.

Iran kept its highly enriched uranium and control of the Strait. Its missile and drone arsenal proved tougher than advertised. Our Gulf allies are left smoldering and the global economic pain is still inbound. Israel is more isolated than ever and POTUS is negotiating on the enemy’s terms.

But at least we sank their useless navy again. And look on the bright side, it’s probably only halftime.

[Jasen Castillo @CastilloJasen]

@JohnJHarwood @SeizeTheNae A

[Jasen Castillo @CastilloJasen]

@A_Swidzinski All things being equal, this is not great -*if* you want to defend Taiwan.

[Franz-Stefan Gady @HoansSolo]

US reportedly committing nearly its entire JASSM-ER inventory to the Iran war. Per @Bloomberg: ~2,300 pre-war stockpile, 1,000+ already fired, & after repositioning remaining missiles to CENTCOM/UK bases, only ~425 left for rest of the world 👇 https://t.co/qqkf8ERauf

[Justin Logan @JustinTLogan]

Pivot to Asia!

[Responsible Statecraft @RStatecraft]

“It's their home turf. As somebody who's fought on the home turf of another country, you're always at a disadvantage.” -- @JamesWebb_16 on prospect of US ground troops invading Iran
https://t.co/s4GgkrtwEn

[Jasen Castillo @CastilloJasen]

@RKelanic @cherylbenson Moving to more and more punishment

[Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim]

The Iran war exposes just how mil­it­ar­ily over­stretched and stra­tegic­ally undis­cip­lined the United States has become. Within weeks, the country has poured massive quant­it­ies of scarce high-end muni­tions into a region that its own National Secur­ity Strategy deemed a low pri­or­ity just four months ago.

“The days in which the Middle East dom­in­ated Amer­ican for­eign policy in both long-term plan­ning and day-to-day exe­cu­tion are thank­fully over,” wrote the aides who penned the doc­u­ment for Trump. “We should encour­age and applaud reform when and where it emerges organ­ic­ally, without try­ing to impose it from without.”

[Eric Brewer @BrewerEricM]

The JCPOA seemed to be capable of doing it. 🤷‍♂️

[John B. Holbein @JohnHolbein1]

There's one trait where economists clearly outperform the other social sciences:

Hubris.

[Curt Mills @CurtMills]

China HATES this

[Justin Logan @JustinTLogan]

Hopefully foreign affairs columnists’ articles will start reflecting this genuine debate. Eventually.

[Jasen Castillo @CastilloJasen]

@StaciePettyjohn @RANDCorporation I remember Rodger Cliff writing about this in East Asia.