Canadian Energy Analysis

Canadian Energy. Former sell side scrub, IR punching bag, corporate schmuck.

[Canadian Energy Analysis @CdnEngyAnalysis]

Capital discipline in the Canadian Oil & Gas industry? Let’s find out. A thread.

[Canadian Energy Analysis @CdnEngyAnalysis]

@NuggetCapital They must know something!

[Canadian Energy Analysis @CdnEngyAnalysis]

@atelicinvest My vote is $PEI.NE

[Canadian Energy Analysis @CdnEngyAnalysis]

@ShaleTier7

[Canadian Energy Analysis @CdnEngyAnalysis]

@ShaleTier7 Is this really the tagline you want to be known for?

[Canadian Energy Analysis @CdnEngyAnalysis]

@ShaleTier7 Begging management not to do anything stupid right now:

[Canadian Energy Analysis @CdnEngyAnalysis]

Need more details to determine if this new carbon tax agreement is better or worse than current; less bad is still bad, and bad is bad.

[Canadian Energy Analysis @CdnEngyAnalysis]

I asked AI to write a haiku for $TOU:

Tourmaline drifts low,
Charts whisper unmet promise—
Patience thins like fog.

[Canadian Energy Analysis @CdnEngyAnalysis]

Golfing with a couple of juniors:

Them: you’re really good

Me: I used to be

Them: what happened?

Me: I got old

Them: oh

Me: ☠️

[Canadian Energy Analysis @CdnEngyAnalysis]

@JamieHeard5

[Canadian Energy Analysis @CdnEngyAnalysis]

@LUV2SKIPOW Breaking: Local man in top 1% of the wealth spectrum decries strength of top 1% of real estate market. More news to follow at 6PM.

[Canadian Energy Analysis @CdnEngyAnalysis]

@tt74kenn

[Canadian Energy Analysis @CdnEngyAnalysis]

@ShaleTier7 Mega top.

[Canadian Energy Analysis @CdnEngyAnalysis]

@ShaleTier7 Remember how great things were in 2016? Man, those were the glory days.

Few.

[Canadian Energy Analysis @CdnEngyAnalysis]

This guy is one of the few on here who is actually taking an objective view of $SES. It should not trade at 16-18x; 11x is a gift.

[Commodity Adjusted EBITDA @FCFNextYear]

The $GFL / $SES.TO merger getting this contentious wasn't on my bingo card.

My position is unchanged: this isn't the optimal outcome for either party. That said, $SES.TO shareholders are getting a good price today. At 11x forward (announced price) or ~10.5x using current $GFL price, investors should take their ball and go home. For continued energy beta via OFS, I'd point you to $CEU.TO, a best-in-class specialty chemicals biz trading at 9.5x that's tied to production (vs. drilling activity), much like $SES.TO's base biz.

My comment below on preferring $SES.TO standalone is b/c a combo with $GFL is sub-optimal for both sides.

$GFL shareholders want truly non-cyclical CFs. Adding OFS pressures the multiple by muddying the story and weakens $GFL's ability to do accretive SW M&A, especially opportunistic M&A in economic downcycles.

For $SES.TO shareholders, the standalone growth profile gets watered down by the broader $GFL. That's not to say $SES.TO is a "waste" biz whose chart will grind up and to the right, as many suggest. When the next energy downcycle hits (and it will), the multiple will compress dramatically. But $SES.TO holders should be given the chance to trade around that growth profile and energy cycle volatility.

My near-term view on $SES.TO is positive: the Iran situation should inject a geopolitical risk premium into oil that we haven't seen in a decade+. Layer on renewed focus on security of supply, which will point major crude and products buyers to NAM. $SES.TO's core business will benefit because it supports Canada's long-life resource base and an oil price anywhere close to US$80 is great for basin-wide profitability and will support healthy activity levels.

If $SES.TO's multiple keeps grinding higher as generalists conflate commodity CFs in a constructive oil price environment with business quality, this opens the door to accretive M&A of actual waste assets and a longer-term pivot. That's the additional optionality in the $SES.TO thesis, but it requires that the oil price remains high enough for long enough. Once again, this highlights $SES.TO's exposure to energy beta.

[Canadian Energy Analysis @CdnEngyAnalysis]

@EnergyCynic Same position, same thinking as you.

[Canadian Energy Analysis @CdnEngyAnalysis]

@ShaleTier7

[Canadian Energy Analysis @CdnEngyAnalysis]

@ShaleTier7

[Michael "Barnacle" Spyker @ShaleTier7]

Are you serious? I don’t know your CAGR and you don’t know mine — nor do I care. You could be -99% or +9,999% on the year and I’d still engage because this is my sector.

Why not take a minute to wonder why it's just accumulating there? In January of 2026, FOB Vancouver pricing was ~$500/t, that 10 million tonne pile would be $5 billion! So why weren't they selling it then?

There’s a reason that it sits there; because you transport sulphur via rail to Vancouver, and then you need space at a dry bulk terminal. The Port of Vancouver can handle 3 million tonnes a year of sulphur exports. At that rate, if *just* Suncor owned the terminal (they don't), it would have >3 years to export their Suplhur.

But, Suncor isn't the only Sulphur exporter from Vancouver; and they're not the only oil sands mine in Fort Mac. In terms of free terminal space, there's ~2,000 tonnes a day of export capacity, if you're lucky, or 0.73mt/yr, so at that rate it'd take Suncor almost 15 years to sell their Fort Mac inventory.

But Suncor isn't the only Oil Sands mine with Sulphur, nor the only Sulphur producer in Alberta! So they're competing with everyone else for that terminal space.

And to even get to the Vancouver terminal; you need to rail your Sulphur. So you have 3 bottlenecks to get your Sulphur from Fort Mac to the Port of Vancouver; your rail terminal/transloading capacity, your ability to book rail cars, and your actual dry bulk terminal capacity in Vancouver.

And every single Sulphur producer in the province (i.e. everyone with an oil sands mine, refinery, or sour gas plant), is trying to export their Sulphur.

So you end up with highly depressed local prices for Sulphur (why Cavvy/Pieridae did their infamously poor deal with Shell) -- much like AECO gas, it's trapped in the province. You're effectively using TTF pricing to mark AECO reserves in the ground with no ability to land that gas in Europe. It's ridiculous and a fundamental misunderstanding of commodity markets.

Again, I don't know your returns, nor do I care; but if you're going to be so freaking cocky about a claim so bold, and tell me to "google it" -- at least make sure you're right, and have done at least one second-order google search yourself.

[Canadian Energy Analysis @CdnEngyAnalysis]

Trying to implement AI at a big bureaucratic organization:

Me: Copilot is useless, can we get Claude instead?

IT: No.

Me: but we could cut so many people if you let us use Claude.

IT: No. Case resolved. Ticket closed.

IT email: Please complete this short survey.

[Michael "Barnacle" Spyker @ShaleTier7]

Please for the love of everything holy if you are an E&P do not do anything stupid.

Do not buy back your shares after running your cashflow at $110/bbl WTI. No they're not cheap. The time to buy back stock was every day over the last year.

Do not buy new assets. The time to buy new assets was every day over the last year.

Do not grow. If you couldn't grow over the last year economically, you are almost certainly not going to be able to maintain your new-found production levels when the market reverts. You are not the low cost producer.