A lot of people are confused why semi and AI hardware so strong today, while board market is red! Oil is up, treasury yield is up, most stocks are down, why AI hardware so strong?
1. I know the yield is high, but all the hyperscalers are raising more debt to buy more chips and build more data centers! Why? Because they believe they can make so much more money, despite the high borrowing cost! So high yield is not a headwind for semi, but high yield could be a headwind for other sectors if they cannot make enough money to justify the borrowing cost! That’s why you see board market is down while semi is green!
2. AI Infra is the main catalyst for economic growth for the Trump administration. Trump knows it! He will do his best to pump AI plays! If not, Republicans will lose the midterm in a landslide!
3. Oil price will come down eventually. Latest after midterm! Iran is using the midterm as its negotiating leverage. After midterm, there is no reason for Iran to continue the war. I believe oil price will plummet after midterm! Consequently, treasury yield will come down significantly as the inflation fear caused by oil price fades! This becomes the ultimate bullish catalyst for all stocks!
So I would not be selling semi in any situation. I will only be reshuffling some positions to capture the price fluctuations, but keeping my core positions intact! Believe it or not, semi is the safest place to be right now! 😎
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