🇱🇧🇮🇱 Chaos in Beirut right now
Crowds have completely taken over the streets, burning tires and blocking roads in fury over the Lebanese authorities signing an agreement with Israel.
They say it legalizes Israel's occupation of South Lebanon and gives Netanyahu immunity for war crimes.
This could escalate fast.
Writer: Sol
There are now only two possibilities: either bankers and Bessent are on cocaine and are aggressively shorting it ahead of the 4th of July, or overleveraged degens from Korea, Japan, and the West are going to crash the world economy with all their leverage. The possibility that both are true isn’t impossible either.
@JDVance@WhiteHouse The US is changing the agreement and then plays stupid.
This crap did work in the past but Iran ain’t taking your shit. The US needs to come home and focus on Americans.
CBC refused to include a comment from Pierre Poilievre to balance their coverage of Carney’s press conference.
Pierre spoke and took questions for 56 minutes. (Video below)
The CBC included 0% of it.
The CBC is the state broadcaster and only exists because Canadians are forced to pay for it through their taxes.
The very least it can do is cover all sides of the issues.
Don’t mistake tanker counts for normalization.
On June 24, Hormuz saw 62 transits—41 out, 21 in
But 68% of tanker oil headed to China.
This is a one-sided reopening
China gets barrels; the West gets risk.
#Hormuz#Oil#China#Iran#EnergySecurity
@WhiteHouse@SecKennedy After bankrupting them with a stupid war where 70% of farmers could not afford the sky high fertilizer prices. Planting season is over now
Here's my analysis of the Strait of Hormuz situation for the last 24 hours.
As I noted yesterday, I was seeing a lot of vessels using the Oman route to exit. This was following the announcement by Oman and IMO. The IRGC retailiated today on a vessel, but even after the attack, I am still seeing transits. It's a lot less, but there are vessels willing to take the risk.
On the inbound front, the flow is still heavily restricted. Whatever outflow we are seeing today is unsustainable as there are not enough non-Iranian tankers going in. In particular, we need empty VLCCs going in to load up crude. This is just a trickle so far.
In my view, the traffic in the Oman lane will lead to more escalation by IRGC. Without throttling flows entirely in the Southern lane, IRGC will lose control of its leverage over the Strait. If they act, then it's a question of what the US does after.
I think this is only the beginning.
I have included the time lapse video with names using @MarineTraffic data and the list of inbound tankers.
The cost of the Iran War has been massive. Direct military costs will likely approach $100 billion.
But the total could be closer to $1 trillion when long-term costs from inflation impacts, debt interest payments, and veterans’ benefits are included.
My @Morning_Joe Chart