@PGDynes The planet doesn't get hotter during as a result of an El Nino. It is a transfer of heat from ocean depth to the surface as the normal upwelling of cold water off the coast of S. America stops. The planet includes the region under the ocean surface. El Nino warms the surface.
@WeatherProf The SSTA's from just east of the 3.4 region (100W - 120W) and part of the 3.0 region are close to 5C at the equator. I think the relatively modest SSTA's in the 150W-170W region are causing this event to be underestimated.
@WeatherProf If possible, I would appreciate a post about how to interpret an El Nino which is so much stronger in the eastern half of the official 3.4 region (120W - 150W) than the western half.
@charlieteshi I don't want you to be chronically ill the way that I was chronically anxious for so many years. It hurts to understand that your self-orientation involves so much suffering. Maybe that's not necessary.
@charlieteshi I want you to take a chance and talk with me. Give us an opportunity to acknowledge the pain. To grieve the loss that a young person experienced when someone they loved couldn't be the parent they needed. The trauma in our hearts isn't good for our health. Grudges aren't healthy.
@charlieteshi Once upon a time you loved me. I grasp the trauma associated with an ill parent. I didn't heal from my connection with my mother until she died. There was a lot of ancillary suffering from that. It impacted you. I don't want you to be a victim of that as long as I was.
@WeatherProf Just a heads up .... it seems in the last day or two that the surface temp anomaly in the west portion of the Nino 3.4 region (150w-170w) declined slightly while in the 120w-140w, the temp anomaly increased. Looks like heat is moving east from 3.4 region toward 3 region.
@WeatherProf What's the relationship between that subsurface heat and the severity of the El Nino? Does it make the El Nino more durable? Officially, an El Nino is defined by surface temps, not subsurface temps.
@WeatherProf Can you explain the practical relevance of the subsurface heat? Does it have any impact on the conditions which will be noted by humans living on the Earth's surface?
@WeatherProf This is nuanced. CO2 solubility is declining but not less than zero. Ocean is warming and more CO2 is still going into it. Just a lower proportion than previously.
@WeatherProf 7 consecutive months of increasingly severe forecasts. If the trend continues, the next month forecast will be still higher. This graph is telling us that our forecasting has a lot of room for improvement.
The climate science community is politically incompetent. They don't have any policy or leaders they can guide citizens to. They just point out the obvious .... that we're heading toward disaster with no solutions.
@WeatherProf@spann Imagine a world in which the climate experts got behind the candidates who had the policy they supported instead of representing themselves as politically inert.
@WeatherProf@spann Our identities are more nuanced than meteorologist / politician. That's a disavowal of the role as citizens in a democracy. A meteorologist isn't responsible for participating in solutions to climate change. A citizen is.
@WeatherProf Climate education = we're in deep doodoo.
Q: What should we do to avoid the worst?
A: Silence.
Climate education is safe and pays the bills. Challenging the root causes takes courage. Stay safe.
@WeatherProf You can document wind shear in 2D by looking at an angle parallel to the Earth's surface. That way you can show wind speed and direction at different altitudes. Just have to let go of the map.
@WeatherProf The weather education is genuinely appreciated. But the value is diminished when it is not coupled with a solution. This is a systemic failure of the climate science community. No policy to address the problem.