Scott

[Cole Grinde @GrindeOptions]

@optionscjp A combined business especially with these two companies will have so many opportunities and synergies.

Also, $TSLA shareholders will should receive a premium if they’re giving up the growth realization of Robotaxi and Optimus.

[Scott @Coding_Zombie]

@carnivoregymguy @MentoviaX Because they won't give up voting power for nothing. Also you need 50% of all votes, not just those who voted, so any retail you can get helps.

If you don't think there will be a premium you are delusional.

[Scott @Coding_Zombie]

@Aaron4kid @TeslaBoomerPapa SpaceX revenue growth is all smoke and mirrors. Best case we get space compute in any meaningful capacity by 2033. Terrestrial compute will be abandoned as soon as the merger is done.

On the other hand robotaxi is ramping today and Optimus is a 2027 story.

[Scott @Coding_Zombie]

@wallstreetkid87 @MentoviaX

[Scott @Coding_Zombie]

@Hazy19L @TomerHacohen @SpaceX Not a good comparison. MRVL + Lite were not controlled by the same person and relative scale and synergies are different.

SpaceX has had a huge run and Elon is BS'ing about the growth to get the deal done.

SpaceX shareholders would be lucky to get robotaxi + Optimus revenue.

[Scott @Coding_Zombie]

@Hazy19L @TomerHacohen @SpaceX Tesla is trading below the 2021 price and 20% below all time high. If you think there is a 30% premium baked into the stock you are delusional.

It's obvious Elon wants this merger done and soon. The vote will never pass unless the offer is at least ATH and Elon knows this.

[Tomer Hacohen @TomerHacohen]

Predictions:

1. Spacex-Tesla merger will be announced middle of December.
Offer will be $560 floor with 4:1 shares exchange ratio.

2. Voting will be held approximately 20/1. Vote will pass with 64% of all shares. Could be video live stream with tesla earnings talk.

3. @Spacex earnings will be 12/1. Live video stream and talk on the deal.
Revenue run rate of $150b and guidance to $200b.

4. Gamble: @Tesla_Optimus gen 3 unveil by end of January.

5. Starship 16 orbit refueling, end of January-beginning of February.

@elonmusk what do you think?

@wholemars @SawyerMerritt @TeslaBoomerMama @teslaownersSV @TeslaLarry @CernBasher @nerdalert @bradsferguson @farzyness @DirtyTesLa @DillonLoomis @heyitsyashu @davelee @herbertong @Teslaconomics @ICannot_Enough @JoeTegtmeyer @thejefflutz @DoctorJack16 @ShrimpTeslaLong @TSLAFanMtl

[Vekay @rajuvamsi007]

Thanks to @TeslaBoomerMama for this beautiful table.
That 4.0 row with $TSLA at $591 is the most likely ratio.

50% Premium - Elon promise to TSLA holders ✅
51% Ownership - Tesla was the first to go public ✅
33% Elon Stake - Reasonable Skin in the Game ✅
74% Voting Share - So that Elon cannot be ousted ✅

I think 4.0 is the right number every way you see it!!

[Derek Wang @derekhxw]

How will SPCX acquire TSLA in an all-stock deal but with a floor price?
Here is what the deal structure looks like: SPCX will announce the acquisition as a stock ratio, corresponding to a market cap ratio. For example, 3.1 SPCX for 1 TSLA, which roughly put TSLA market cap equal or slightly below SPCX market cap. But how should the floor value work? The deal format will be: SPCX will guarantee the minimal TSLA price of, say, 500, at the time of deal close. What does it mean? At the time of close (which likely one year from now), if SPCX is trading below 161, SPCX has to buy TSLA at a higher ratio above 3.1. For example, if for the entire year, SPCX is unchanged at 140, then SPCX has to pay 3.57 shares for every TSLA share. If at the time of close (roughly one year from now), SPCX is above 161, then it will acquire TSLA by issuing 3.1 shares for each TSLA share.

How will TSLA stock react? When the acquirer SPCX makes the announcement, TSLA will jump to 500 with some discount, say, 480, ie, $20 risk spread. If SPCX moves above 161, TSLA will move together with SPCX at 3.1 ratio (every $1 SPCX move, TSLA will move $3.1). Then when TSLA shareholders vote to approve the deal, the spread will shrink to, say, $15. The spread will further shrink when the regulator approves the deal (likely 6-9 months from now), say, to $5. So TSLA stock from announcement to deal close will trade like:
500 - spread, if SPCX is below 161;
3.1xSPCX - spread, if SPCX is above 161.
The spread will be 20 (before TSLA shareholders approval), 15 (before regulator approval), 10 to 0 (after regulator approval). The actual ratio will be at least 3.1 or more if SPCX is below 161 at the time of the deal close.

To recap, the deal will be announced with a ratio (representing a long term market cap ratio: 3.1 would represent roughly 1 for 1 in market cap, or call it merger of equal); and a floor price in term of TSLA stock price (for example, 500). The expected deal close date will likely be announced too. There will not be any cash component involved in the deal structure.

TSLA/SPCX ratio history to today.

[Scott @Coding_Zombie]

@MirageWL8 $420 would never pass. $690 on the other hand...

[Scott @Coding_Zombie]

@JCChristopher @CuriousPejjy The market will not reflect $500 until the day it's announced. Probably shortly before or after the shareholder meeting

[Scott @Coding_Zombie]

@RivianRay @Theo_1517 @GrindeOptions The market seems to disagree with your sentiment. If you are right, you could make a lot of money selling the company short or buying puts.

[Scott @Coding_Zombie]

@Miaavswpv Should be 80% before 2027

[Scott @Coding_Zombie]

@SeanMalarkey Could definitely be the case if they do a 10:1 stock split

[Scott @Coding_Zombie]

@Theo_1517 @GrindeOptions They are about to go from one time sales of vehicles (not very profitable) to robotaxis (extremely profitable). Then there's the Optimus call option. On a trailing P/E TSLA is incredibly expensive. On a forward P/E it's incredibly cheap.

[Scott @Coding_Zombie]

@wholemars 1,302 Robotaxis what a fucking joke 😉

[Ryan McCoy 🦃⬛🟨📐 @RMcCoy30]

"To solve sustainable energy, we have to have a pickup truck"
-@elonmusk 2019

[Scott @Coding_Zombie]

@Karanx_ The demand for cybercabs will take several years of production to satiate. It will look like there is infinite demand until probably a market size 3-5x the current ride share market and 8 million cars.

Beyond that, hopefully Tesla gets back to selling cars to consumers.

[Scott @Coding_Zombie]

@TXEVDad As an investor it makes way more sense to build cybercab. The profits per cybercab will be amazing compared to selling a car.

As a consumer this really sucks. I want Tesla to sell an electric vehicle in every segment.