it is an unwritten rule of life that after every prolonged period of hardship and uncertainty, there is going to be a period when you are going to achieve quantum leaps across multiple areas of your life. the only requirement is that you do not give up on yourself.
Very, very true. I clocked this at age 7. People never put effort into things that will really make them great; they get distracted by things that won't. At 7, I read a lot about great men and what set them apart. It was three things:
1. Organization - Most great people I know have very organized and focused minds, leaving little room for distractions.
2. Consistency - You really become the greatest by constantly improving on your best. Most great people don't do one thing, get applause, and then go back to mediocrity. They consistently improve. Wahab Sarumi proved this in university. He saved me.
3. Discipline - Most great people need discipline to achieve the two things above. Sometimes what we call “hard work” is just discipline in action. Disciplined people always work hard, but hardworking people are not always disciplined.
Lack of discipline and a lack of delayed gratification are what typically lead to most failures. I have seen people who work hard and still do not improve because, in one area of their life, they try to overcompensate for that effort with overindulgence.
It could be liquor, leisure, or leverage, according to Charlie Munger. The three deadly sins are subtly being advertised to us daily by people who have made fortunes by capitalizing on human weakness.
Very few fortunes are made from “selling human discipline.” People buy things like gym memberships and never follow through. Most fortunes are made by people who sell to “human weakness” and they are also never high on their own supply. The biggest tech billionaires try to get their kids to largely avoid the tech they sell because they know the dangers of their product.
Discipline is all conquering, and the greatest battlefield is the mind. Our temptations change over time. Once, I was a slave to my hormones, but I was making enough money to support the habit.
I later became addicted to crisis, thinking it was hard work. So-called workaholics also lack discipline. It takes a lot of effort to say no at both extremes. I eventually found the middle way, at great cost.
I am great to my family, and that is the most important thing in the world to me.
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Fruit and Juice [also called Beyond Fruits] has had an advanced facilicity at Limuru for this since early 90s.
-They supplied Nakumatt, Tuskys, naivas etc and still supply till today
-Today they have their own branded outlets called beyond fruits shops 30+ outlets
-They focus on logistics and proper sourcing & distribution across Kenya. They do very little farming mostly of mushrooms and herbs at Ndeiya
-They also import oranges, mangoes, kiwis, berries, and other exotic fruits and have an elaborate cold chain
-Twiga did not get to this scale in volume and throughput
-In 2020, the Entire Fruit and Juici operation was valued at Kes. 1 billion. A PE called Barak was looking at putting in Capital
So Fruiti and Juici, highly profitable and efficient with a visible business model is worth 1 billion. Twiga spent kes. 25 billion trying to become Fruit and Juici. They should have just spent 5billipn to buy off Fruot and Juice and keep Change. Call Paresh Shah for a chat
Agreed. Twiga over-estimated market size, no one verified this. They then over-invested in infrastructure and technology to serve a market that simply wasn’t big enough to support the economics. The irony is that the hard part - sourcing, cold chain, distribution and volume - already existed in businesses like Fruit & Juice & even Zucchini. The better strategy may have been to buy the infrastructure, preserve the cash-generating business, and build the tech layer on top.
They failed at strategic level, and tried to then validate that by building more and more white elephants.
FMCG looks simple from outside. It isn't.
Margins are thin, competition is brutal, logistics are expensive.
Almost every region has its own 'boss' , a traditional FMCG company that knows the customers, routes, prices and competition inside out.
Folks, startups in Kenya have raised more than Kes. 62 billion to solve one problem -Last mile distribution.
After the burn, they failed:
8 tech-enabled startups set out to solve the exact same problem in Kenya: last-mile distribution to informal retailers and consumers.
Here is the capital breakdown:
• Wasoko: $152M (KES 19.8B)
• Copia Global: $123M (KES 16.0B)
• Twiga Foods: $110M (KES 14.3B)
• MarketForce: $42.5M (KES 5.5B)
• Sendy: $29M (KES 3.8B)
• Kyosk: $12M+ (KES 1.6B)
• Duhqa: $2.15M (KES 280M)
• Kune Food: $1M (~KES 130M)
Total Raised: $471.6 Million (KES 61.3 Billion)
So, how did nearly $500M evaporate across mega-funded giants and nimble early-stage plays alike?
1️⃣ Razor-Thin Margins: FMCG distribution runs on 3–5% margins. Digitizing an order form doesn't eliminate the physical cost of moving rice, flour, or meals over congested roads.
2️⃣ Subsidized Growth: VC cash was burned to subsidize delivery costs and undercut traditional wholesalers instead of fixing core unit economics.
3️⃣ Zero Loyalty: Dukas buy purely on price—down to the shilling. Retailers simply jumped between platforms depending on who was offering the biggest subsidy that week.
4️⃣ The BNPL Trap: Extending uncollateralized trade credit to informal kiosks led to massive default rates that wiped out profits.
5️⃣ The VC Winter: When global interest rates spiked and VC funding dried up, high-burn business models collapsed like a house of cards.
As MarketForce CEO Tesh Mbaabu @teshmbaabu candidly reflected after shutting down RejaReja:
"Under perfect competition, almost no company makes an economic profit in the long run... Everybody loses when the war isn't one worth fighting."
Published after he stepped down from Twiga, by Peter Njinjo @njonjo2012 this piece takes a broader and more personal look at the fallout of macro shocks, strategy disagreements on the board, public scrutiny, and starting over:
"In early 2022, the ground shifted. The U.S. rapidly increased interest rates, global capital retreated, and business models built for patient growth were suddenly exposed. Inside Twiga, disagreements about strategy and survival intensified. I believed the company needed to evolve decisively. Others disagreed... Eventually, I stepped away to pursue a different path..." "When external markers fall away—title, status, validation—you are forced to ask harder questions. What actually matters?
Whether it was a $150M giant or a $1M pre-seed attempt, this isn't just a story about failed startups—it's a masterclass in capital efficiency, the harsh realities of informal retail, and what happens when Silicon Valley playbooks collide with African markets.
I’m dropping a deep-dive breakdown uncovering the full story, the operational debacles, and the crucial lessons for the next generation of African founders.
Stay tuned. Full piece drops soon! 🧵👇
How to destroy a beloved brand.
Step 1: Put a soulless, data-driven consultant who has never even seen a basketball court or a running track up close in charge.
Step 2: He goes direct! And increase profits while destroying the retail distribution system and betraying a multitude of 20-year-long partnerships.
Step 3: Motivated and innovative competitors like On Running and Hoka rush to fill the distribution gap Nike left by abandoning its trusted partners.
Step 4: Not satisfied, he fires all the stupid creative people who can't prove any of their ideas work with hard data. What could they possibly know?
Step 5: Celebrate when milking the brand for every last cent works for about 18 months, even though the data quickly show a disaster is looming.
Step 6: OMG? Wut?
Step 7: Fire the old CEO and bring in a new one who's been with the brand since day one. He tries his best, but just too much damage was done.
Step 8: Get delisted... Go down in history as the greatest example of data-driven idiots destroying one of the most successful creative brands of all time.
The end.
Sending lots of love to the Apple community on my last day as CEO. My title changes tomorrow, but the love I have for the Apple community never will. Thank you for being a constant source of inspiration. My gratitude is endless, and I’m excited for the next chapter!
A mistake that cost me 5 years: Thinking preparation was progress. Reading every book. Taking every course. Planning every detail. Meanwhile, someone dumber than me started badly and figured it out. Preparation feels productive but it's often just fear dressed up as strategy. You learn to swim by getting in the water, not by studying water.
For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @NVIDIA signed on why open models matter.
AI will transform every industry, power every company, and be built by every country.
Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty.
The world needs both frontier closed models and frontier open models.
https://t.co/AUKzoQ5Ikb