Only hope for this market now is a massive 🌮 with Iran
Bessent balked on bond buybacks
Warsh capitulated and hiked
Both made it loud and clear that this is Trump's mess and his alone to fix
@aleabitoreddit I love your takes on AI but I think long term speaking we are getting bags handed in entire AI trade, I hope to be wrong but we aren’t making any new highs in photonics, infrastructure, or memory names.
Happy to be wrong!!!!!!
THE CATASTROPHIC CORRUPTION OF THE TRUMP TARIFFS
“Imagine the government ➕ $100 to the price of something you buy in the name of creating more jobs in America.
You pay the extra $100.
Later, the SCOTUS rules that the government never had the authority to impose the charge. No jobs were created & everyone is $100 poorer.
You would assume at the very least that you get your $100 back.
You don’t.
The company that collected the $100 gets to keep it & they can even take some of their ill-gotten profits & donate it (as a kickback) to the government (officials).
Making matters more despicable, imagine that while the legality of that $100 charge is still being fought in court, the family firm of a US cabinet official out promoting the policy he knows is illegal.... buys the rights to those future refunds, when it is found to be illegal.
That’s what happened with Donald Trump’s tariffs.”
Seeing some incorrect $AVGO earnings numbers floating around right now.
The $13.088B number being reported as “sales” is NOT revenue..
That’s GAAP net income.
Actual Q3 revenue was $29.591B
More importantly, AI semiconductor revenue came in at $16.7B, +221% YoY, with Broadcom guiding for $21.7B next quarter.
Pretty important error..
I'm glad the leverage bros moved from AI stocks back to Hyerliquid and biotech like $MRNA, so maybe we'll see a faster recovery.
Aside from that just some TLDR stuff:
- $EWY up, primarily from SK Hynix buybacks (they're just too profitable), and Samsung Foundry roughly ~10-15% price hikes.
- $SKHY unveils CPO roadmap?? Apparently they're doing something with photonic interposer that links to memory, so I gotta look a bit deeper into this
Probably going to be more TAM expansion, more supply chain beneficiaries (eg. lasers, PICs, packaging) off this.
- $YMTC pursuing IPO next quarter following CMXT's successful IPO.
The Chinese IPO market is just going brrr from Unitree to memory makers.
US needs to do something similar rather than IPOing companies at trillion dollar valuations already.
- Tyntek limit up there's now order visibility through 2028, given photodiode demand imbalance for photonics.
Elazr GM did say the entire optical supply chain was facing major shortages... I'll probably look more at high-end PD bottlenecks next.
- MS forecasts a 50% Q/Q price increase for DDR4 for Q3, and 10%+ increase for Q4 2026. (Nanya/2408, Windbond/2344, should be happy).
- China reportedly delays clearance from germanium, quartz-based materials, and neodymium magnets To taiwan.
So I'll probably have some fun looking into supply chains disruptions there over cup noodles.
- High-end PCB drill shortage (still ongoing), Kawei (5498) said AI DCs, servers and optical communications are driving demand for PCBs, HDI and package substrates, while tungsten prices are rising.
Though the world's five largest drill manufacturers are aggressively expanding capacity, supply remains far below overall market demand
Just stuff I found interesting recently, obviously $MRNA stuff is too.
Uhh Citadel?
> Say emergency rate hike. More crashes/liquidations follow
> No rate hike
> Reaches out to buy liquidated hedge fund portfolios
> buys billions of Situational Awareness holdings.
> Says AI bull case is intact
>markets rally
> Sells AI stocks into the buying pressure
I’m just stating the timeline here…
Stock market crashes are extremely rare events. What many today call a “crash” are merely mild corrections. If I was to pick a time when a true crash is possible it would be January, 2029. Just before Trump leaves office when the daily market pumping ends. 💯🌮
An Aussie discovers Texas Road House for the first time. Epic!
The World Cup needs to be permanently held in the US. It offers the most for the teams and the fans. 🤣🇺🇸🇦🇺
@TheBronxViking lol…..just because you see Alabama you think everyone has fetish for cousins…very intelligent…..acting all cool wow, don’t you feel all proud about making fun of people online