Commodity Turtle

physical commodity trading house

[Commodity Turtle @CommodityTurtle]

@ALikhodedov @Rory_Johnston Oil just isn’t as important to the world economy as it used to be

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

After 39 Days of War, Iran Thinks It’s Winning

Reading Iran’s latest proposal, one conclusion is hard to avoid: after 39 days of war, Tehran believes it has the upper hand.

This is not a document from a regime under pressure or seeking an exit. It is a proposal from a government that sees the war as an opportunity to reshape the strategic landscape in its favor.

Iran is not just asking for an end to hostilities, it is demanding guarantees against future attacks, along with compensation and a structured mechanism to secure it, rooted in its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. That strait, it is worth recalling, was open before the war began.

Even more troubling is what the proposal does not prioritize. The nuclear issue, ostensibly a central justification for the conflict, is largely deferred. A comparison between Iran’s current terms and its prewar proposal reveals minimal substantive differences, aside from a willingness to extend the duration of a nuclear freeze. Meanwhile, the most effective tool of pressure on Tehran, the maritime blockade, is expected to be lifted before serious nuclear negotiations even begin.

This puts Washington in a bind.

If the administration accepts the proposal, it will face an immediate and uncomfortable question: what was the war for? The likely outcome would be a stronger Iranian regime, newly enriched by sanctions relief, and a nuclear framework that closely resembles earlier proposals, essentially a return to the familiar formula of the #JCPOA -constraints in exchange for economic benefits.

But rejecting the proposal offers no easy alternative. It raises a different question: can additional military pressure realistically force Iran into a more favorable position? At this stage, the answer appears extremely doubtful.

One more point worth noting: has anyone heard recently about meaningful restrictions on Iran’s missile program or its network of proxies?

There’s a simple reason for that is there aren’t any. And there likely won’t be, at least not if the United States is seeking a diplomatic resolution.

In practice, this means that even under a potential agreement, some of Iran’s most consequential sources of power like its missile capabilities and regional proxy network, would remain largely untouched. That reality only reinforces the broader concern: the possible emerging framework does little to fundamentally alter Iran’s strategic posture.

The result is a strategic dilemma with no clear off-ramp. Either the United States moves toward an arrangement that largely reflects Iran’s terms, or it continues escalating in ways that are unlikely to change Tehran’s calculus but are almost certain to deepen global economic instability.

Iran’s proposal sends a clear message: it does not intend to concede.

The harder question is what Washington intends to do about it.

#IranWar‌

[Commodity Turtle @CommodityTurtle]

@HFI_Research @Quanttzu Tell that to disty markets - wouldn’t want to be short July jet crx or gasoil structure rn
Roof city

[Sohaib Abbas @sohaibab9]

Trump bragging how oil should be a lot higher in his CNBC interview in our 8th week of the conflict & more than 500mmbl of affected supply all the while running a price manipulation racket inhibiting true price discovery is prolly all thats needed to pretty much guarantee us 200$ WTI now.

While i’ve always believed this ends with a deal & Iran normalization/ reintegration into the region, i couldn’t possibly believe there’s was this much Ego & Hubris to drag this out for as long as it has.

Unless this can be resolved within next 2 weeks with Trump taking the L ie worse deal than JCPOA he’s been dragging his feet on, will wake up one day with a violet move upwards in WTI as this confidence game of everything perfectly fine & under control cracks & shatters.

Ground invasion = Price Spike 📈
Time delay/ Negotiations = Price Spike 📈

A deal needs to happen ASAP to save the markets here prolly even <48-72hrs here

[Commodity Turtle @CommodityTurtle]

@HFI_Research yeah but citrini analyst nº3 saw lots and lots of boats transiting the strait??

[Commodity Turtle @CommodityTurtle]

@MBjegovic @citrini *huge bong rip* listen bro strait of Hormuz not a big deal (tiny supply loss!!) media panicking for NO reason

[Commodity Turtle @CommodityTurtle]

@MBjegovic @citrini *huge bong rip* listen bro strait of Hormuz not a big deal (tiny supply loss!!) media panicking for NO reason

[Commodity Turtle @CommodityTurtle]

@TheSpeculator0 Yeah the strait of Hormuz is closed

[Commodity Turtle @CommodityTurtle]

@WarrenPies @TMTLongShort Export ban would be catastrophic for rest of world - particularly for middle distillates - and negative impact would likely spill over to the US anyway.
Doesn’t mean they won’t do it!

[Commodity Turtle @CommodityTurtle]

@calvinfroedge oilprice dot com

[Commodity Turtle @CommodityTurtle]

@Foxy_Trader967 #SpookyFridayThoughts

[Commodity Turtle @CommodityTurtle]

@Foxy_Trader967 @AlgomaticTrade Bro he’s the best trader AND he’s betting against Wall Street

[Commodity Turtle @CommodityTurtle]

@Foxy_Trader967 @CRUDEOIL231 Cracks to zero mate send em to goblin town

[Commodity Turtle @CommodityTurtle]

@Foxy_Trader967 @CRUDEOIL231 i love it when fundies shuffle around a bit

[Commodity Turtle @CommodityTurtle]

@BenniKim Why would the Iranian discount disappear ? fewer willing buyers / longer crude balance whilst more Iranian bbls on the market relative to non sanctioned bbls - sounds like a recipe for discounts to deepen

[Commodity Turtle @CommodityTurtle]

@macrocephalopod @therobotjames @Foxy_Trader967
This is too funny

[Commodity Turtle @CommodityTurtle]

@Foxy_Trader967 Or perhaps figurative crooks?

[Commodity Turtle @CommodityTurtle]

@Foxy_Trader967 As opposed to metaphorical crooks?

[Commodity Turtle @CommodityTurtle]

@SpotMonthEnergy @ImSoSarah But what if &lt;PnL&gt; is the vernacular across the whole floor??

[Commodity Turtle @CommodityTurtle]

@tchiling What+/- confidence range would you put on that 1.1 mbd? Sounds like you think we'll revise tighter? Via demand or supply?