Confluence Group

Trend following strategies with focus on Sector / Industry strength and rotation. Posts should not be considered advice.

[Confluence Group @ConfluenceCptl]

@TheOppReportFF @brianstelter In the 90s she was the very best. Loved her on CNBC, then over the years the “behind the scenes” rumors started to leak out and the shine wore off.

The last two decades have been an embarrassment. Hard to believe it’s the same person. I have to remember it’s all “entertainment”.

[Confluence Group @ConfluenceCptl]

@atrupar “the biggest grass company in the world, somebody said”

[Confluence Group @ConfluenceCptl]

@SethAbramson I wonder if you put yourself under the same scrutiny and introspection.

We are on year 10(?) of your schtick

[Confluence Group @ConfluenceCptl]

@DavidBCollum @chrismartenson I hate this so much. I had three pretty detailed projects in process. Blew up everything.

I was so proud of myself for scheduling the update for Friday night and they steamrolled me anyway.

[Confluence Group @ConfluenceCptl]

@GabeforColorado A great follow up study would be to analyze total office space occupied by energy companies nationwide over the past decade, and see if Denver is similar to the overall trend.

Or would that risk your narrative?

[Confluence Group @ConfluenceCptl]

@JohnGoldman @johnarnold @razibkhan The main issue is the direction. These rates are a tailwind on the way down and a headwind on the way up.

Same rate on a chart is not equal.

[Confluence Group @ConfluenceCptl]

@NateSilver538 It’s wise enough to stop you from over engineering and overfitting your strategies to past data.

If only you could apply this to the rest of your work.

[Confluence Group @ConfluenceCptl]

@cfbpredictor @AllKindsWeather @CollegeFBonX @IAKOWDustin Hello survivorship bias!

[Confluence Group @ConfluenceCptl]

@JasonL_Capital Would this allow us access to time and sales data on option chains?

[Confluence Group @ConfluenceCptl]

@themagnogroup @ThinkAppraiser This is what we did after three days of trying to reach a common sense solution in Santa Barbara.

Same exact situation. Credit card dispute solved it. Never book with a debit card.

[Confluence Group @ConfluenceCptl]

@LockCity_USA @BillSimmons @BrokeHomieCorn It’s all correlated.

The threat of these BS phantom calls makes it impossible to play good defense, which leads to the NBA becoming unwatchable.

Defending these calls will ruin the game we love. They have to fix it.

[Confluence Group @ConfluenceCptl]

@dangreenoh I stopped reading when he said “every” 100 basis points markup raises a rate by .25 percentage points.

He might be right about the first 100 bps, but it’s a decreasing return. You ain’t getting ,25 out of that last 100 bps.

[Confluence Group @ConfluenceCptl]

@HomeLoanBill @adotwill @mortgagetruth You’re on the right track.

Take your argument to its final evolution. Instead of an LO deeply involved in every file, it’s 2-3 humans overseeing hundreds of active files at once, with borrowers interacting with AI.

I’m not sure what you call it, but it’s not an “LO”. We’ll see

[Confluence Group @ConfluenceCptl]

@HomeLoanBill @adotwill @mortgagetruth My last little point - the largest individual originator in the US is now an owner of Guaranteed Rate.

He obviously doesn’t personally interact with every file. It’s a delegated, tech heavy system.

I promise he spends all day thinking about how to shrink it with AI.

[Confluence Group @ConfluenceCptl]

@HomeLoanBill @adotwill @mortgagetruth I believe differently. I think most people would far prefer to control the process by themselves, with a human middleman as the last resort, not the first.

We will see. I can promise that the industry will do everything possible to make this happen.

[Confluence Group @ConfluenceCptl]

@HomeLoanBill @adotwill @mortgagetruth I’ve retired, but you are correct that I had a strong / highly qualified client base.

“Credit counseling” as an industry may be more resilient.

[Confluence Group @ConfluenceCptl]

@HomeLoanBill @adotwill @mortgagetruth As of this exact point in time, you are correct. We are not there. Yet.

We will get there, and a meaningful % (majority) of loan originations will be 100% AI, and this will happen sooner than you think.

Plan for it, don’t hide from it.

[Confluence Group @ConfluenceCptl]

@RotoLegend @adotwill @mortgagetruth Agree that we don’t need to argue about it. And I notice you haven’t provided any specific examples.

But I would bet a lot of money on a massive (70%+) reduction in LOs, underwriters, processors, and auxiliary staff.

Every company out there is trying to leverage this.

[Confluence Group @ConfluenceCptl]

@HomeLoanBill @adotwill @mortgagetruth Before, during, and after. I still hold an active license.

[Confluence Group @ConfluenceCptl]

@RotoLegend @adotwill @mortgagetruth I think you are giving yourselves WAY too much credit for what you do. A great loan officer is responsive, communicative, and has an extensive knowledge of guidelines and workarounds. That can all be absorbed by AI.

What specific “intricacies” do you think it can’t handle?