Connor Martin

Author of THE SILVER FISH. National security fellow @CFR.

[Connor Martin @ConnorMauthor]

My latest for @CFR_org. Let me know if you agree in the comments.

https://t.co/E4DKGQDneU

[Sebastian Mallaby @scmallaby]

Update on my bet that OpenAI has a 50/50 chance of running out of money by next summer. I know I may be wrong here— this is what 50/50 means. But here’s how I see it.

The positive: OpenAI has overtaken Anthropic in terms of weekly revenue, according to OpenRouter data from July. Reflects OpenAI’s scientific excellence, which has always stood in contrast to its shaky business foundations. Impressive that @sama and @gdb have lost loads of senior scientists and yet they still replenish the brain trust.

Not so positive: Anthropic appears to enjoy far more customer loyalty. Twelve month retention rates are almost double OAI’s. (H/T @FT). But, tbf, this may just reflect a period when Anthropic’s models improved faster, and maybe the tables have turned.

The chief OAI worry is the same as it always was: cash burn. Latest numbers indicate that OAI expects to lose $280 billion by 2030, even though revenue is forecast to 10x between now and then. That implies a massive fund-raising challenge. OAI is running an experiment not only in an unprecedented technology; it is also testing the depth of global capital markets.

OAI has used the recent hacking scares to postpone its IPO, which might have been hard to pull off anyway. So it has to raise money privately. Already, the last fund-raising round included a bunch of financial engineering—conditional future cash promises, promises of compute in lieu of cash. OAI has also tried to finance data centers by leaning on Nvidia in its guise as the central bank of AI. See the $105 billion NVidia guarantee on the Ohio data center.

How many more nimble financial tricks can OAI pull? Especially in a climate where the political backlash against AI is growing and open weight competition is intense?

Here’s what to watch for. OAI financial partner, SoftBank, is plotting the near-term IPO of its data-center builder SB Energy. If that plan runs into trouble, there will be knock-on effects for SoftBank and hence a hit to SoftBank’s ability to pour fresh money into OAI.

[Connor Martin @ConnorMauthor]

@simonmontefiore @AAKnopf Beautiful cover for the US edition, dare I say I prefer it to the UK cover- it’s usually the reverse!

[Council on Foreign Relations @CFR_org]

The heads of rival AI labs in the United States found rare common ground over the weekend when they called for a slowdown in the technology's development after a series of incidents pushed the once-abstract risk of self-improving AI into the center of public debate.

But it "seems apparent that [Anthropic and OpenAI] view this as a kind of prisoner’s dilemma: neither one wants to unilaterally slow itself down without some assurance that the other would not take advantage of that fact," writes expert @ConnorMauthor.

[Connor Martin @ConnorMauthor]

My first piece as visiting fellow @CFR_org is up! Talking AI safety, China, and prisoner’s dilemmas. LMK what you think in the comments. https://t.co/GGG61kPUvA

[S Sebag Montefiore @simonmontefiore]

Summer reading. Recommend all these…

[3500graywolf @3500graywolf]

Great novel 5 ⭐️ @ConnorMauthor my review below. @MysteriousPress @simonschuster @CharlesCumming @CrimeReads @mccloskeybooks @goodreads @jordan_harper @spybrary @MerleNygate @TheThrillerZone @WinslowBookClub @NPR

[S Sebag Montefiore @simonmontefiore]

Summer Reading Today

(Last Lazy Days)

[Connor Martin @ConnorMauthor]

@simonmontefiore Great choices! Hope you enjoy The Silver Fish! Didn’t know Robert Harris had a new one— ordering it now.

[S Sebag Montefiore @simonmontefiore]

My Summer reading selection:

[Connor Martin @ConnorMauthor]

Sometimes Digging for the Truth Can Be a Slippery Slope | BookTrib. https://t.co/DbycXmounN

[Connor Martin @ConnorMauthor]

https://t.co/uE2PX1kcAY

[Connor Martin @ConnorMauthor]

My latest piece, for @Lithub's @CrimeReads: Writing Spy Thrillers Grounded in Real-World Foreign Policy https://t.co/aW6S3WBe04. Give it a read, and check out The Silver Fish, available wherever books are sold! #thriller #spynovel

[Connor Martin @ConnorMauthor]

The U.S. has all the tools needed to lead next wave of advanced telecom network technology (think #5G, #fiber optics, and #AI coming together to change the world). ICYMI, check out this piece in @ProSyn, which I was lucky to work on with Liza Tobin and Warren Wilson.

[Special Competitive Studies Project @scsp_ai]

Leading in advanced networks technology is key to maintaining a global competitive advantage, argue #SCSPTech’s Liza Tobin, Warren Wilson, and Connor Martin. Read the full piece in @ProSyn below.

[Connor Martin @ConnorMauthor]

Great to write about how the U.S. and E.U. can align on #AI for @scsp_ai with former colleagues Liza Tobin and Rama Elluru. Check out our take below. 👇

[Special Competitive Studies Project @scsp_ai]

In this week’s edition of 2-2-2, #SCSPTech’s Rama Elluru, Liza Tobin, and Conor Martin discuss the importance of collaborating with the EU to ensure economic prosperity as generative AI unlocks new possibilities. ⬇️
https://t.co/2Sk3kGM9gf

[Special Competitive Studies Project @scsp_ai]

In this week’s edition of 2-2-2, #SCSPTech’s Rama Elluru, Liza Tobin, and Conor Martin discuss the importance of collaborating with the EU to ensure economic prosperity as generative AI unlocks new possibilities. ⬇️
https://t.co/2Sk3kGM9gf

[Connor Martin @ConnorMauthor]

It was a privilege to get to work on the critical issue of #friendshoring with colleagues from @scsp_ai, and to guest post in @Noahpinion's newsletter last month. Check it out here ICYMI: https://t.co/pv3MsGldmp

[Connor Martin @ConnorMauthor]

@SlaughterAM Rising tide of Jihadists on Twitter: social networks meet illicit networks. http://t.co/8Ji163Jl

[Connor Martin @ConnorMauthor]

@SlaughterAM FP: extremist Saudi clerics spreading hate thru soc media. @21Statecraft tools can cut both ways: http://t.co/Nildesct

[Connor Martin @ConnorMauthor]

@SlaughterAM @21Statecraft dissident Wang Dan to Chen: come to US, you can still make change thru twitter/weibo http://t.co/KllAuR43