Jesse Trades

Head of Bitcoin Strategy @smarterwebuk |

Creator of Bitcoin valuation framework used by @saylor |

Views my own. past: Stanford MBA, Bain & Co

[Jesse Trades @Croe_web]

This is the biggest story in finance. Yet few are aware what's happening.

[Jesse Trades @Croe_web]

This post was seen by ~1M people yesterday. A few more thoughts on the topic...

A. "Steady lads, deploying more capital"

This is the infamous meme that comes from the Terra/Luna implosion. Crypto people have scar tissue from the May 2022 implosion of this algorithmic stable

[Jesse Trades @Croe_web]

Strategy had ~6 months of USD set aside as a dividend cash reserve.

The market did not like that. That was part of why STRC traded down to $82 per share last week.

What did Strategy do?

Calmly raised $335m more of capital, using most of it to increase dividend cash reserve t

[Jesse Trades @Croe_web]

SpaceX holds 6% of its corporate treasury in Bitcoin.

[Jesse Trades @Croe_web]

There's only 4.6% of #Bitcoin left to be mined.

In 2 years, it will be just 3.1%.

At this point, new supply issuance will be cut in half permanently.

People are currently focused on when the bear market is over (is it now? in 3 months?)...

[Jesse Trades @Croe_web]

STRC down to $82.6 today. Here's my read:

1. Strategy is fine. If everything stays as is, they can pay STRC dividends for 32 years. If BTC appreciates at ~2% CAGR, they can pay dividends indefinitely.

2. Why the sell-off? This appears to be a liquidation cascade

[Jesse Trades @Croe_web]

At @smarterwebuk we think "Net Bitcoin per Share" is an important metric to track an Amplified Bitcoin treasury strategy.

For this reason, we have added this metric (alongside "Gross Bitcoin per Share") to our analytics dashboard.

[Jesse Trades @Croe_web]

I didn't mean it

[Jesse Trades @Croe_web]

I’m sick of it. The Bitcoin gloom and disappointment. Don’t you see what is underway?

When you close your eyes, there’s one number you should see in your mind: $500T of fiat assets.

That’s how much global asset value is sitting in Bonds (fixed income) & Money (M2 fiat currenc

[Jesse Trades @Croe_web]

Apparently @TrustlessState from @Bankless has sold all his Ethereum?

Looks like my 2021 prediction was off by a year.

As a former altcoiner, eventually all roads lead to Bitcoin.

It's painful to accept at first, but then all the cognitive dissonance disappears and a ste

[Jesse Trades @Croe_web]

One Big Thing you should know in Bitcoin today:

SpaceX holds 6% of its corporate treasury in Bitcoin.

Here's the quick rundown...

[Jesse Trades @Croe_web]

"UK Asset Landscape" now published.

Key takeaway: the UK commands ~6% of global asset value, and more of global money and equities.

In my opinion, the UK is one of the most attractive capital markets for BTCTC strategy.

Document on @smarterwebuk website. Link in comments.

[Jesse Trades @Croe_web]

6 years of fairly regularly posting analysis & writing about Bitcoin to hit 100k followers. Thanks all!

Was never my plan... just wanted to share the world-changing, Once-in-a-Species implications of Bitcoin.

Buckle up! BTC is still <1% of the way to end state ($10m / BTC)

[Jesse Trades @Croe_web]

In the last year, the world has printed 9.3% more money.

Global M2 money supply has reached $141T in 2026.

When inflation starts to run hotter again, they will blame it on Iran and other proximate factors.

But the root driver is the money printer has been running hot

[Jesse Trades @Croe_web]

The One Big Thing you should know in Bitcoin today:

A White House official hinted a big announcement about the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Here's what you should know...

[Jesse Trades @Croe_web]

One Big Thing you need to know in Bitcoin today:

Strategy is on pace to buy 300,000 BTC in the next year. 2x as much as will be mined.

What does this mean for the price of Bitcoin?

[Jesse Trades @Croe_web]

In the last year, the world has printed 9.3% more money.

Global M2 money supply has reached $141T in 2026.

When inflation starts to run hotter again, they will blame it on Iran and other proximate factors.

But the root driver

[Jesse Trades @Croe_web]

Heatmap showing Bitcoin price levels being mentioned on Twitter over the last 2 years.

Line across middle? That's mentions of $100k - red hot when we broke through in 2024.

Now? $60k and 50k are being talked about.

Fascinating data being mined by @SullyMichaelvan

[Jesse Trades @Croe_web]

At @smarterwebuk, we like accumulating more Bitcoin.

[Jesse Trades @Croe_web]

The market is rewarding responsible leverage for Bitcoin treasury companies.

- Strive has 41% amplification and trades at a 1.33x mNAV.
- Strategy has 33% amplification and trades at a 1.27x mNAV.

Just over a month ago @smarterwebuk had ~0% leverage and traded