$ASTS from $37 to $237 in 18-24 months
That's the projection
And you won't care then if you added between $30 - $60.
You will look back and see that this was a straight forward retest of the 200 WMA...standard for Wave 2.
Rakuten and AST SpaceMobile are launching Rakuten AST, a joint venture to build a D2D satellite network in Japan๐
With $1B in support from Japanโs MIC, Rakuten AST will build disaster-resilient, uninterrupted communications infrastructure for Japan.
https://t.co/qvvmzdFyG3
$ASTS: ๐จJLEO appears to have been awarded!! ๐ฏ๐ต๐บ๐ธ
This is a ~1B subsidy by the Japanese government that will essentially cut CapEx by 50% for costs related to the build and launch of a BlueBird constellation.
Details are pending release by @AST_SpaceMobile / @Rakuten_Mobile. Iโd expect some kind of joint PR.
$ASTS: ๐จCLEAR STREET REITERATES BUY RATING AND $115 PRICE TARGET
AST Moves Toward Full Integration
Summary
While the market is overly focused on launch bottlenecks, AST's announcement of its own reusable 20-ton rocket, Blacklift, moves it toward full vertical integration and addresses the longer-term concern. Powered by Firefly Aerospace's (NASDAQ: FLY, NC) Miranda and Vira engines, Blacklift targets first flights in late 2028 with up to five BlueBirds per launch. Key points heading into 3Q26 earnings Monday, November 9, after the close:
Full integration: Blacklift would complete AST's end-to-end model
Near-term relief: Watch for AST's 2027Eโ2028E launch outlook
Sovereignty: Expect updates on sovereign deals as governments seek network control.
Spectrum: Separate from earnings, FCC action on Ligado's pending SkyTerra Next application could come at any time.
We reiterate our Buy rating and $115 price target (20x 2029E adjusted EBITDA of ~$2.1B vs. ~6x at $30 today).
Key Points
Full integration costs ~$1.3B. Blacklift would complete AST's end-to-end model and cut reliance on Falcon 9, with SpaceX (SPCX, Buy) reportedly turning away new bookings beyond 2028 (Bloomberg). The Firefly deal includes ~$800M upfront ($400M cash; 10โ14M Class A shares) for a perpetual engine license, $250M for the first three rockets' engines, and $250M for three years of engineering support. That is ~$900M in cash and ~3% dilution, vs. $3.7B in pro forma 2Q26 cash and restricted cash.
Near-term relief depends on two rockets returning. ULA's Vulcan targets a return to flight Friday, November 13, after a nine-month grounding. A successful flight would indirectly help AST by freeing Falcon 9 capacity, though AST has not publicly confirmed Vulcan contracts. A December New Glenn return would restore AST's high-capacity option at up to eight BlueBirds per launch.
Sovereignty is a growing tailwind. Vodafone's (NASDAQ: VOD, NC) Tim Boddy said at Network X in Vienna that the AST venture is a stronger sovereign option than Starlink or Amazon, as its core network and radio infrastructure sit in Europe under the Luxembourg JV deal (Light Reading).
Spectrum is the opportunity the market is missing. AST's Ligado agreement gives it 80+ years of rights to up to 45 MHz (40 MHz of L-band) for $550M at closing, pending FCC approval. SkyTerra Next would put L-band payloads on 96 AST satellites. Iridium (IRDM, Neutral) opposes, alleging spectrum hoarding; Ligado disputes it. At 45 MHz x 340M POPs x $1.10 per MHz-pop (SpaceX paid ~$1.00 for EchoStar's 50 MHz, ~$17B), approval implies up to $16.8B in value, vs. an ~$11.7B market cap at $30.
AST, a satellite company that competes against SpaceX, announced that it is building its own rocket that will be powered by engines from Firefly https://t.co/y7mMiA2PPM
WHAT IS NEXT FOR $ASTS?
My personal view, from a technical perspective
We told you where this was heading, while everyone was chasing it at $100+, we were waiting for $29
Right now $ASTS is following structure and doing a beautiful ABC corrective move for Wave 2. Once it finds support, the big Wave 3 move to $234 is next
But first I want to see support. Two important levels:
- The 0.786 fib level, which it closed above last week
- The 200 WMA
Earnings are on Monday. Letโs see if they can execute, and if the post-earnings reaction recaptures the 200 WMA
Letโs see
NFA
$ASTS is impossible to ignore right now
Hitting $28 could complete the structural drawdown we were tracking
We're opening our first position on Monday
Eyes set on $250 (+670%) long-term
This will be our second space stock alongside $PL
Our recent Robinhood Chain spotlight introduced us to some exciting projects, and one that's been getting plenty of community support is @internet_monkes by @gmhunterart! ๐
Internet Monkes is a collection of 5,000 pixel-art NFTs on Robinhood Chain, combining nostalgic internet culture with an interactive collecting experience.
At the heart of the project is MONKE Tech, a system where collectors can put their NFTs to work, earn BANANA, and redeem rewards through the Internet Jungle.
Here's what makes the ecosystem interesting:
๐ 5,000 unique Monkes featuring 24ร24 pixel artwork
๐ MONKE Tech lets holders earn BANANA, an in-game currency rather than a tradable token
๐ด The Internet Jungle features 1,200 Monkes reserved for collectors to discover and redeem
๐ Collector-exclusive raffles and rewards, including rare Monkes
๐ Transparent, independently verifiable raffle results, giving collectors a way to audit how winners are selected
The team has also been building out its Gallery and other collecting experiences, creating more ways for holders to engage with their NFTs.
We love seeing projects experiment with NFT utility and community-driven collecting!
Building something ambitious on Robinhood Chain or beyond?
The RARI Creator Fund is looking to support creators bringing innovative ideas to life!
Apply here: https://t.co/x4KyUmVIL0
Special shoutout to some of the active members of the Monke community:
@redrumgm@gmhunterart@imafckretard@MIR_NFT@Just_Almeida@yesSMMR@cocoloco73_@VersaceBoysRH@lexbigboycrypto@hystiebeans@Cryptomoons1
Who else from the Monke community deserves a shoutout? ๐
Really appreciate the recognition and support.
This is just Season One of what we're building on @RobinhoodApp.
The MONKE Gallery goes live in the next few hours, and we're already working hard behind the scenes on what's coming for Season Two.
it's MONKE SZN โก๏ธ