Cuban Sheikh

Exiled but not daunted

[Cuban Sheikh @CubanSheikh]

@ankurnagpal Who is your DI provider?

[Cuban Sheikh @CubanSheikh]

@John_Hempton King Dollar

[Cuban Sheikh @CubanSheikh]

@valuemaverick1 @rsandler21969 @mario_cibelli @ShortSightedCap Maybe small cap managers should invest in PE GPs if they believe in the asset class

[Cuban Sheikh @CubanSheikh]

@dalibali2 Nice. Check your numbers on EMR. Incl SBC in your Earnings for P/E and you’re good.

[Cuban Sheikh @CubanSheikh]

@TihoBrkan How much of the FCF is SBC?

[Cuban Sheikh @CubanSheikh]

@nachkari Like the Koch bros?

[Cuban Sheikh @CubanSheikh]

@Post_Market @amankapadia @gnoble79 Struggling competitors?

[Cuban Sheikh @CubanSheikh]

@Adam_Wyden @patrick_oshag Brunello buys fabric from Zegna so not really a good comp v loro in that sense

[Cuban Sheikh @CubanSheikh]

@_clarktang So you have a 3-yr stack for Core CPI of 11.6% YE. Seems like acceleration rather than deceleration. So core CPI running ~3.5%+ trend. Market seems to be saying real rates will be ~0% by year end. Should treasuries have any term premium? Seems like 10yr could easily move higher.

[Cuban Sheikh @CubanSheikh]

@FullySynergized @JunkieValue @scroogecapital Don’t think organic deleveraging is the only path.

[Cuban Sheikh @CubanSheikh]

@Adam_Wyden @FullySynergized @JunkieValue @scroogecapital ‘23 seems unrealistic. Wouldn’t mind but I think ‘24/‘25 much more likely but yes that’s the glide path.

[Cuban Sheikh @CubanSheikh]

@masterly_in @bizalmanac What % of restaurants survive 10 years? That’s what you’re implying w/ 90% gross retention. Avg restaurant lasts ~4 years. Given more successful restaurants likely have higher payment volumes, gross retention at TOST probably shakes out very close to ~80% over time. Maybe 85%.

[Cuban Sheikh @CubanSheikh]

@S_curvecap ST balance of power shifted towards OTAs during COVID when leisure was the only horse in the market. In a proper reopening business comes back, and chains will be at their full strength. That’s when any given day new risk can present itself.

[Cuban Sheikh @CubanSheikh]

@S_curvecap Do the math… Current GBV/night = ~$130 * 15% take rate = ~$20/night of revenue * EBITDA Margin of 35% = $7/night of EBITDA. $2 of EBITDA at risk from loyalty parity. And then I might have to compensate customers for value on Wifi (one example) as high as $5/night.

[Cuban Sheikh @CubanSheikh]

@JohnHuber72 @JerryCap @S_curvecap GOOG can earn profits from a more fragmented base of customers (I.e. hotel operators) that would likely drive higher pricing in auctions for the same exact clicks. Not nearly as symbiotic as you might think when you consider the substitutes. CAC rails are not exclusive to OTAs.

[Cuban Sheikh @CubanSheikh]

@marcelolima The people don’t know how. Not a clue. Shortage of software business talent that understands how to grow with financial discipline. Not that hard to grow without any discipline.