Drazen Cvija

@CvijaDrazen

Earth

Joined December 2019

114 Following

67 Followers

419 Posts

CvijaDrazen retweeted

Bull Theory

@BullTheoryio

9 months ago

🚨BREAKING: Silver prices are exploding due to a severe global supply shortage. The physical market can no longer meet soaring demand. Here is what is actually going on 👇 1. China is changing the rules. Starting January 1, 2026, China will restrict silver exports. To export silver, companies will now need government licenses. Only large, state approved firms qualify: - At least 80 tonnes of annual production - Around $30 million in credit lines This effectively blocks small and mid size exporters. China controls roughly 60–70% of global silver supply. When China tightens exports, global supply drops immediately. This is the same tactics China used with rare earth metals. 2. The silver market was already short supply. Silver has been in a structural deficit for 5 straight years. That means demand is higher than supply every single year. For 2025: - Global demand: 1.24 billion ounces - Global supply: 1.01 billion ounces That is a gap of 100–250 million ounces. And this gap is expected to get worse after China’s export limits. Mining supply is not growing: Silver mining is mostly a by product of copper and zinc mining. New mines take 10+ years to build, Ore quality is falling, Recycling is not enough to fill the gap. There is no quick fix here. 3. Physical silver inventories are collapsing. This is where it gets serious. - COMEX inventories are down 70% since 2020 - London vaults are down 40% - Shanghai inventories are at 10-year lows At current demand, some regions hold only 30-45 days of usable silver. This is why physical premiums are exploding. In Shanghai: - Physical silver trades at $80+/oz - COMEX prices are much lower This price gap means buyers are paying extra just to get real silver. 4. Paper silver is completely disconnected from reality. There is an extreme imbalance between paper silver and real silver. The paper to physical ratio is around 356:1. That means: - For every 1 ounce of real silver - There are hundreds of paper claims If even a small percentage of buyers ask for real delivery, the system breaks. Markets understand this. That is why price moves are becoming vertical. 5. Industrial demand keeps rising. Silver is not just a safe haven metal. It is critical for: - Solar panels - Electric vehicles - Electronics - Medical devices Industrial use now makes up 50-60% of total silver demand. There is no substitute for silver in many of these uses. Banks and institutions are reacting to: - Supply limits - Physical shortages - Paper market risk Silver is not rallying because of fear. It is rallying because a real supply squeeze is playing out in real time.

BullTheoryio's tweet photo. 🚨BREAKING: Silver prices are exploding due to a severe global supply shortage.

The physical market can no longer meet soaring demand.

Here is what is actually going on 👇

1. China is changing the rules.

Starting January 1, 2026, China will restrict silver exports.

To export silver, companies will now need government licenses.

Only large, state approved firms qualify:

- At least 80 tonnes of annual production
- Around $30 million in credit lines

This effectively blocks small and mid size exporters.

China controls roughly 60–70% of global silver supply. When China tightens exports, global supply drops immediately.

This is the same tactics China used with rare earth metals.

2. The silver market was already short supply.

Silver has been in a structural deficit for 5 straight years. That means demand is higher than supply every single year.

For 2025:

- Global demand: 1.24 billion ounces
- Global supply: 1.01 billion ounces

That is a gap of 100–250 million ounces. And this gap is expected to get worse after China’s export limits.

Mining supply is not growing:

Silver mining is mostly a by product of copper and zinc mining.

New mines take 10+ years to build, Ore quality is falling, Recycling is not enough to fill the gap.

There is no quick fix here.

3. Physical silver inventories are collapsing.

This is where it gets serious.

- COMEX inventories are down 70% since 2020
- London vaults are down 40%
- Shanghai inventories are at 10-year lows

At current demand, some regions hold only 30-45 days of usable silver.

This is why physical premiums are exploding.

In Shanghai:

- Physical silver trades at $80+/oz
- COMEX prices are much lower

This price gap means buyers are paying extra just to get real silver.

4. Paper silver is completely disconnected from reality.

There is an extreme imbalance between paper silver and real silver.

The paper to physical ratio is around 356:1.

That means:

- For every 1 ounce of real silver
- There are hundreds of paper claims

If even a small percentage of buyers ask for real delivery, the system breaks.

Markets understand this. That is why price moves are becoming vertical.

5. Industrial demand keeps rising.

Silver is not just a safe haven metal.

It is critical for:

- Solar panels
- Electric vehicles
- Electronics
- Medical devices

Industrial use now makes up 50-60% of total silver demand.

There is no substitute for silver in many of these uses.

Banks and institutions are reacting to:

- Supply limits
- Physical shortages
- Paper market risk

Silver is not rallying because of fear.

It is rallying because a real supply squeeze is playing out in real time.

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CvijaDrazen retweeted

MartyParty

@martypartymusic

9 months ago

Understanding regulatory changes and their effects on the centralized dollar valuations in crypto. 2025 has seen more positive regulatory progress in the adoption of digital assets, blockchain network adoption and integration into the tradfi and banking system than ever before. This is fundamentally BULLISH. But why does the price drop? Firstly, there is no "price" of digital assets. There are over 600 exchanges all over the world buying and selling the same assets and running their own synthetic order books. The "price" of crypto tends to follow the dominant exchanges, meaning the exchanges buying and selling the most crypto, called "volume". All other exchange prices will instantly catch up and follow the dominant volume exchange price. The primary issue with this is that the dominant spot exchanges are also the dominant derivative exchanges selling "bets" to traders with extreme leverage. Because there has been no regulation of crypto these offshore exchanges can manipulate the "price" in their synthetic order books however they want to extract maximum liquidity from the gamblers ("traders"). With the advent of regulation, primarily from the SEC and CFTC and similar sister organizations worldwide, there is now a urgency from these exchanges because their window of manipulation is closing. This is why we have seen the most hostile leverage and liquidation events in history leading to the regulatory regime change. This led to the leverage reset we just witnessed. This event may be bearish to those that were liquidated, but it is bullish for long term investors as it means the asset class is being cleaned of leverage and manipulation, and valuations will more align with fundamentals and be less aligned with speculation which is manipulated to extract liquidity. Spot pressure: Another key aspect of regulatory change is that we have seen the approval and adoption of regulated tradfi ETFs, Stable Coin issuers and the integration of digital assets and blockchain rails into the traditional finance institutions. Now the narrative was that ETFs and Banking integration would send the prices to the moon, but that is not how this works. Institutions dont acquire assets at the top of the market, they create a discount and aquire the assets in an accumulation phase. This is equally true for the new banking regulations, allowing banks to offer digital asset trading and services to their clients. They will create discounts for their clients and wont buy the tops. Criminals have exited crypto: Another major driver of the sell pressure created by regulatory progress is that any criminally aquired asset stash will be sold before it is seized by law enforcement. Understand crypto has been used by criminals since the start of the networks. It was relatively unpoliced until 2025. Countries can seize these assets to aquire them in a budget neutral manner. The criminals, especially in Asia, exited crypto for fear of seizure. Long term holders looking to exit: Another driver of the sell pressure was from long term "OG" holders that were looking to exit. They took the oppertunity at the ATH and rushed out during the leverage reset adding to the selling pressure. So as you can see the market movements are exactly as one would expect. A leverage reset was engineered to remove "tourists" and to offer institutions a discount to enter the market and accumulate digital capital and Stable Coin/RWA network stake at discount, bad actors and long term holders looking to exit, sold. This is short term bearish, long term bullish. If you are an investor you should love this as it leads to mainstream adoption, regulatory clarity, and fundemental valuations. If you are a newcomer looking to turn dollars into more dollars in a short timeframe, you were punished and should leave or become an investor with a longer time horizon. Investing is a long term practice. The larger the participants, the larger their size and therefore the larger their discounts, but the stronger their hands. 2025 was an institutional accumulation and regulatory integration year. If you on a long term investment timeframe this is bullish. Note: Always make sure you are investing in regulated and adopted assets. Few digital assets will survive the regulatory regime change. This is the perfect time to re-address your speculative portfolio and move to regulated and adopted assets with clear technical and commercial advantages. 2026 is a year of liquidity explosion, all the events leading to 2026 were to prepare for this liquidity. Those that survived, managed risk, and held the assets will be rewarded. Those that didnt will become FUDers, bears, and haters or crypto. Its that simple.

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