INSTEAD OF WATCHING NETFLIX TONIGHT.
Spend 1 hour with this.
Claude AI FULL COURSE that teaches you how to BUILD and AUTOMATE anything.
The people who watch this tonight will wake up tomorrow with a new skill.
Watch it and Bookmark it now.
If you are a true long-term Bitcoin investor this is the only model you need.
It's a conviction model that is cycle-length agnostic and probabilistic—providing a range of possible outcomes rather than a single prediction at a specific time.
**Not Financial Advice**
**I Do Not Promote Trading Bitcoin**
The lower half of the model (0-50 Quantile) has an R² of 99.72%—absurdly accurate.
Where Bitcoin falls within this range depends on a multitude of external market factors, human psychology, etc.
The wide range is a statistical reflection of Bitcoin's historical volatility across its full dataset.
However, this range is narrowing over time as Bitcoin's long-term volatility continues its clear downtrend.
As a full-time, unpaid Bitcoin researcher, I'm often asked how people can best support my free content.
Just bookmark, repost, and comment on my posts :)
Follow my account + notifications on for regular updates.
Thanks for all your continued support!
— Plan C
Key Model Features
1. Quantile lines never cross—mathematically impossible.
2. Cycle-length agnostic.
3. 134,500+ data points and 1,500 lines of code.
4. Fits and stores 999 quantile levels (τ = 0.001–0.999 in 0.001 steps) and identifies which level the last price is closest to.
5. Fits the two leading decay functions (stretched exponential decay & exponential decay) and selects the better fit via quantile-appropriate AIC, using Akaike weights to identify the best-supported decay function.