Research update: my paper "Economic policy statements, social media, and stock market uncertainty: An analysis of Donald Trump’s tweets" is now available online at the Journal of Economics and Finance.
https://t.co/Edegj8zW6L
The bartender asks, "Aren't you going to come in and react to the news?"
The EMH replies, "If the news was actually significant, I’d already be at the bar with a drink in my hand. And besides, I’m not moving until the Inflation Risk Premium pays for my tab!"
The Efficient Market Hypothesis walks into a bar.
The bartender says, "Hey, did you hear the news? Inflation expectations are shifting because of a new media narrative!"
The EMH just sighs and stays at the door.
1/2
@petrogustavo Cuando se cancela la visa, automaticamente se puede esperar que se niege la entrada via ESTA. Se rechaza la entrada al individuo no solamente al documento de identificación.
🇺🇸🇮🇱 David Schwimmer:
“Stand with your Jewish friends and colleagues against hatred. Say that what’s happening in our campuses and schools is unacceptable. Say anything in solidarity with the Jewish community.”
Media coverage of inflation has a significant and asymmetric effect on consumer inflation expectations, from @cconces, @PascalFrank12, and Jane M. Ryngaert https://t.co/ji6ltWWjfX
Super interesting!
"Soft Landing or Stagflation? A Framework for Estimating the Probabilities of Macro Scenarios" by Eric Engstrom.
"Recent changes in trade policy and ongoing global economic developments have introduced new sources of uncertainty into the U.S. macroeconomic outlook. These developments—ranging from shifts in tariff schedules to geopolitical conflict—may affect both inflation dynamics and the trajectory of real economic activity. Against this backdrop, forecasters and policymakers may find it useful to assess the probabilities of various macroeconomic scenarios."
https://t.co/jKoeI5L06h