@mikehtrujillo The new outstanding ballots estimate for LA county added 60,000 votes when compared with yesterday’s estimate + today’s processed. Pretty much over. I don’t know the exact math but La city will have over 40% share of that 60,000.
@LACountyRRCC This revision upwards from yesterday’s 713,000 (688,000 outstanding + 81,486 processed today = 769,486) pretty much means it’s over for Pratt. I haven’t done the new math but Raman would only likely need 9.5-10% lead over pratt, on average, for the remaining drops.
@GladysToper@ftebb@E_Barcohana@grok Latest la county estimate update has 675,000 outstanding. They processed 81,000 today. That means that their 713,000 remaining estimate from yesterday was too low. Essentially, yesterday’s estimate can be revised to 756,000. Even worse for Pratt
@0xDinoCrypto@Polymarket@saylor Tencically speaking, most markets should close as “no” based on their logic. Sports game? The game only goes final once it’s over = no confirmation until after the event period. Both teams should resolve “no” or “unclear”, regardless of the score.
@DavidPollackUSA@MrNOVApolitico You just said that only 322,000 votes remain. Just in your screen shot we can see that over 460,000 votes have been cast. Plus other candidates increase that by tens of thousands.
Last I checked 322,200/782,000 does not equal 2/3.
How the fuck did you pass the bar?
@StevenSingiser Counted votes: La city/La County 525,326/1,395,987
=.376
.376 of remains 713,000= 263,418 remaining for La city.
That would almost surely be a Pratt win, but I assume NYT and NBC have better logic coming up with 322,000 rather than 263,418, but who knows.
@StevenSingiser Well with the 322,000 LA city estimate (nbc news, NYT)and having it break 31%-20% (like first update). The remaining votes go:
Raman: 99,820
Pratt: 64,400
If added to current totals:
Pratt: 221,516
Raman: 219,629
Incredibly close.
@beautyinnis@ebbetsblues@Ron4California@rpyers@lisa_4_la Well with the 322,000 estimate and having it break 31%-20% (like first update). The remaining votes go:
Raman: 99,820
Pratt: 64,400
If added to current totals:
Pratt: 221,516
Raman: 219,629
Incredibly close. 31-20 ratio (of total batch) is the magic number
@ZacharyDonnini Great data! Yesterday you mentioned that La county told you they would give an estimate of remaining votes. Is there any update on that? I haven’t seen anything
@shshshdshf@PokiJaciii Most likely it is too little. She needs to outperform Pratt by 14% of each total drop, based on current projections. However, if outstanding ballots are beyond the projected 300k, (let’s say 360k), then this split would be okay for Raman.If it’s 400k outstanding, Raman likely 2nd
@kashyap286@Bkclaims Even worse really. It’s like they included a clause saying that they can add clauses at a later time. And then after you sign it they create a clause that says they can harvest your organs