Baily Deeter

Next Gen Stats. Formerly @bleacherreport. Formerly on @freezingcoldtakes.

[Baily Deeter @DeeterSports]

@Crayist @OldTakesExposed Tough scene...my 11 year old self definitely had some cold takes

[Baily Deeter @DeeterSports]

@schwartzsteins @TonyReali @BaileyCarlin It takes one to know one

[Baily Deeter @DeeterSports]

Uchenna Nwosu vs Will Campbell: 5 pressures, 2 quick pressures, 1 sack on 12 pass blocks (41.7%)

Derick Hall vs Will Campbell: 5 pressures, 2 quick pressures on 12 pass blocks (41.7%)

2025 avg pressure rate for tackles: 9.6% @NextGenStats

[Baily Deeter @DeeterSports]

Seahawks pressure rate: 52.8% (would be highest in NFL by far)

Seahawks blitz rate: 13.2% (would be lowest in NFL by far)

Last year PHI had 6 sacks without blitzing once. SEA 5 sacks rushing 4. It’s like playing man up. That’s the SB blueprint @NextGenStats

[Baily Deeter @DeeterSports]

Left side of the Pats OL (rookies Wilson and Campbell): 11.0% average pressure rate allowed @NextGenStats

Right side of the Pats OL: 6.2% average pressure rate allowed

Getting after that left side is why SEA will win this game

[Baily Deeter @DeeterSports]

When Leonard Williams and DeMarcus Lawrence align on the same side, SEA generates a 43% pressure rate (would be highest in the NFL) @NextGenStats

Look for this against Jared Wilson and Will Campbell…

[Next Gen Stats @NextGenStats]

The 2025 NFL season was the year of the throwback offense, as teams moved away from spread formations to heavier personnel sets.

@jamesreber27 details how offensive sub packages are shaping the league and how the trend could define Super Bowl LX.

READ: https://t.co/C92n2l8BQ9

[Baily Deeter @DeeterSports]

Most yards per route run this season, per @NextGenStats

1. Puka Nacua, 3.8
2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 3.7
....................................................
3. Zay Flowers, 2.5

Puka and JSN had 50% more than any other WR!!!

[Baily Deeter @DeeterSports]

Fewest total air yards (cumulative distance from the LOS) of any QB in a playoff game since 2016:

Jimmy G vs GB, 2019, 24 air yards
Josh Johnson vs PHI, 2022, 41 air yards (didn’t start and played half the game!)
Jimmy G vs GB, 2021, 110 air yards

[Baily Deeter @DeeterSports]

@sraney Yup. His WRs aren’t great but every interception was at least partially (if not completely) on him

[Baily Deeter @DeeterSports]

C.J. Stroud on designed rollouts to the left - supposed to be quick and easy hitters:

Regular season: 21/23, 180 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT

Playoffs: 1/3, 9 yards, 2 INT

No QB threw more than 1 INT on a designed rollout to the left all SEASON!!!!!!!!

[Baily Deeter @DeeterSports]

There have been 241 playoff starts by a QB in the last 10 years

Among the bottom 25 in single-game EPA / DB, only 1 has won their game:

Jimmy G, -0.42 EPA / DB (-9.8 EPA total), 14th-fewest

[Baily Deeter @DeeterSports]

Best QB performances in a conference championship game by EPA (NGS era since 2016):

5. Patrick Mahomes, 2019 vs TEN, +20.1
4. Patrick Mahomes, 2024 vs BUF, +21.4
3. Patrick Mahomes, 2020 vs BUF, +22.8
2. Nick Foles, 2017 vs MIN, +23.7
1. Matt Ryan, 2016 vs GB, +36.0

[Baily Deeter @DeeterSports]

The best game (regular or postseason) that any QB has had by EPA in the @NextGenStats era (since 2016) came in a conference championship game:

+36.0 EPA!!!!

Who can name that QB?

[Baily Deeter @DeeterSports]

C.J. Stroud on play action passes:

Regular season: 66/101, 877 yards, 6 TD, 1 INT

Divisional vs Pats: 2/9, 14 yards, 3 INT!!!!!!!

[Baily Deeter @DeeterSports]

Jarrett Stidham success rate: 46.1% (since start of 2022)
Bo Nix 2025 success rate: 44.5%
League average success rate: 44.4%

Jarrett Stidham EPA / DB: +0.04
Bo Nix 2025 EPA / DB: +0.05
League average EPA / DB: -0.02

[Baily Deeter @DeeterSports]

Highest success rate of any current or past Broncos QB in any game since 2016, per @NextGenStats

1. Bo Nix, 2024 Week 18 vs KC (68.8%)
2. Bo Nix, 2025 Week 8 vs DAL (62.1%)
3. Jarrett Stidham, 2022 Week 17 vs SF (60.5%)

The Broncos have a real shot. I think they get it done!

[Next Gen Stats @NextGenStats]

Brock Purdy threw 4 touchdown passes targeting out-breaking routes in Week 16, the most in any game since 2022.

The five other quarterbacks who have done so since 2018 are Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, and Josh Allen.

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[Baily Deeter @DeeterSports]

JSN Week 4 TNF 1st half: 0 yards
JSN Week 4 TNF 2nd half: 79 yards
JSN tonight TNF 1st half: 0 yards
JSN tonight TNF 2nd half: ????????

[Baily Deeter @DeeterSports]

Not the first lateral we've seen on November 20! @CalFootball

[Arye Pulli @AryePulliNFL]

WHAT a play by the #Bills. Converted on fourth and 26th with a lateral play:

[Baily Deeter @DeeterSports]

Lowest scoring game in the NFL this season on @TNFPrimeVision just now…but a fun one!