Defense AI Observatory

The Defense AI Observatory (DAIO) monitors and analyses the use of artificial intelligence by armed forces | Funded by @dtecbw I Operated by @heikoborchert

[Defense AI Observatory @Defense_AIO]

📢+++ OUT NOW: THE VERY LONG GAME+++📚
...3...2...1: We are truly excited to inform you that "The Very Long Game: 25 Studies on the Global State of #DefenseAI" has been released today. 🧵 with links to all chapters below
Get your #OpenAccess copy here: https://t.co/ybn3nyzLWc

[Heiko Borchert @HeikoBorchert]

1/14 Arab Gulf Defense AI: A Long 🧵
With all eyes focused on #AI in the war between the US, Israel, and Iran it is worth taking a look at the role AI plays in #Arab #Gulf force development.

What follows is a summary of the arguments put forward in my study "Bonds That Separate. Defense AI in the Arab Gulf States" published in October 2025 by @Defense_AIO. See https://t.co/zhyzF1xvAM

[Defense AI Observatory @Defense_AIO]

@_schuetzt @Warkhorse @vtchakarova @AntonioCalcara @Simona_Soare @MW42522637
@tala201677 @Olivier1Schmitt @IngvildBode
@HuonCurtis @Bjoern__M @Konflikt_Sicher @noahsylvia_ @jessicadorsey

[Defense AI Observatory @Defense_AIO]

📢 Fragmented Efforts: Defense AI in Brazil🇧🇷 📚
Although Brazil gradually moves towards defense AI, initatives are limited in scope, driven by individual services and fragmented, write Joao Paulo Moralez and Santiago Rivas in our latest study. See: https://t.co/GqSUB7cPED

[Defense AI Observatory @Defense_AIO]

@PucaraD @J_B_C16 @aigraae @kmartin_FRS @Mauro_Gilli @aa_gilli @ZaccagniniIvan @taiyosfc
@Katarzyna_Zysk @MichaelRaska @ckurc @kennethpayne01 @Lauren_A_Kahn @RoyLindelauf
@mmmvdooren @thinkstrat23 @Shimona_ @KitschQuixote @Sami_Jarvinen @vactivity @RCsernatoni

[Heiko Borchert @HeikoBorchert]

What Is the Role of AI in the Air Tasking Cycle (ATC)?

As with every recent conflict, it is easy to overstate the role #AI plays in the current US-Israeli military operation against #Iran. That's why it is important to separate rhetoric from reality - in particular when reporting about and commenting on the conflict and the role of AI.

The table below provides a first, quickly assembled open-source overview to indicate where AI does and does not yet play a role. Yes, AI plays a role, for example, in developing target lists and supporting dynamic targeting. But this is it - also because it remains key to keep two aspects in mind:

First, the primary motive for the use of AI in the ATC is to compress workflows and speed up staff work. Important elements of the ATC, in particular related to meaningful human control, have not (yet) been changed (although tensions regarding the lowering of thresholds are obvious).

Second, it still takes months to prepare and pre-position assets in theater. If these assets do not arrive in time your operation will be delayed - irrespective of the use of AI.

Should you want to use the overview for your reporting, please reach out by DM. Thank you.

cc @Mauro_Gilli @mchorowitz @Lauren_A_Kahn @kennethpayne01

[Heiko Borchert @HeikoBorchert]

How do armed forces learn the right lessons?

In "The West's military malaise" @WarintheFuture
correctly criticizes "a concerning lack of learning" by political and military leaders.

He continues to argue that systematically translating lessons from one military theater to another requires analysts to use four "filters:" Geography and distance, terrain, vegetation and climate, the political and cultural environment, and the capability of potential adversaries.

I would add that when it comes to analyzing adversarial capabilities what is most needed are new methods to avoid design bias in how blue thinks about red. And highly sophisticated simulation with AI-augmented non-conventional red forces is one of the best defense AI use cases.

Link to Mick's analysis for @EngelsbergIdeas https://t.co/clBdYKVbWx

Link to "His hands can't hit what his eyes can't see" for @defense_aio ilustrating the power of AI-enhanced non-conventional red force behavior: https://t.co/hZ7Gyqyv4v

cc @Olivier1Schmitt @Mauro_Gilli @mchorowitz

[Defense AI Observatory @Defense_AIO]

@_schuetzt @Warkhorse @vtchakarova @AntonioCalcara @Simona_Soare @MW42522637 @tala201677 @Olivier1Schmitt @IngvildBode @HuonCurtis @Bjoern__M @Konflikt_Sicher @noahsylvia_

[Defense AI Observatory @Defense_AIO]

📢 Controlled Adaptation and Integration: Defense AI in Belgium🇧🇪 📚
"Belgium's use of AI in defense is emblematic of a broader European pattern: cautious, collaborative and normatively anchored," writes @DanielFiott in our latest country study. See: https://t.co/mC5moeuVDh

[Defense AI Observatory @Defense_AIO]

cc @J_B_C16 @aigraae @kmartin_FRS @LLiversain @Mauro_Gilli @aa_gilli @ZaccagniniIvan @taiyosfc @Katarzyna_Zysk @MichaelRaska @ckurc @kennethpayne01 @Lauren_A_Kahn @RoyLindelauf @mmmvdooren @thinkstrat23 @Shimona_ @KitschQuixote @Sami_Jarvinen @vactivity @RCsernatoni

[Heiko Borchert @HeikoBorchert]

In "Bonds That Separate. Defense AI in the #Arab #Gulf States" published in October 2025 I asked:

"What if data centers become high value targets?" (pp. 69-70).

Yesterday, #AWS seems to have temporarily shut down its data center in the UAE as one of the company's availability zones "was impacted by objects that struck the data center, creating sparks and fire" (link below)

Once again, this incident underlines the ambivalent character of large-scale interconnected infrastructure clusters: What makes them attractive for operators and investors also makes them attractive for rogue actors - because returns and damage scale.

But while European nations are busy building digital hyperscalers, how well #prepared are EU and NATO members to address attacks against the continent's #digital #infrastructure?

[Dr Raluca Csernatoni @RCsernatoni]

Pleased to share my latest DAIO Country Study on #defence #AI in Romania 🇷🇴, examining how a frontline ally with limited indigenous capacity can engage with one of the most transformative technologies shaping modern warfare. @Defense_AIO @Carnegie_Europe👇
https://t.co/9HjEl0ivkS

[Defense AI Observatory @Defense_AIO]

@_schuetzt @Warkhorse @vtchakarova @AntonioCalcara @Simona_Soare @MW42522637 @tala201677 @Olivier1Schmitt @IngvildBode @HuonCurtis @Bjoern__M @Konflikt_Sicher @DanielFiott @noahsylvia_

[Defense AI Observatory @Defense_AIO]

📣 New DAIO Country Study📚
"How can a frontline ally with limited indigenous capability responsibly engage with one of the most transformative technologies in modern warfare?" – Check out our latest study by @RCsernatoni on defense AI in Romania🇷🇴
https://t.co/N9OQ50EP5D

[Defense AI Observatory @Defense_AIO]

cc @J_B_C16 @aigraae @kmartin_FRS @LLiversain @Mauro_Gilli @aa_gilli @ZaccagniniIvan @taiyosfc @RaquelJorgeR @Katarzyna_Zysk @MichaelRaska @ckurc @kennethpayne01 @Lauren_A_Kahn @RoyLindelauf @mmmvdooren @thinkstrat23 @Shimona_ @KitschQuixote @Sami_Jarvinen @vactivity

[Heiko Borchert @HeikoBorchert]

"Es geht bei Rüstungsprojekten um mehr als nur eine rein militärische Betrachtung"

Das ist eine meiner Botschaften in der Diskussion mit David Vogel in der aktuellen Ausgabe des Podcast @NZZ Geopolitik. Am Beispiel des #F35 diskutieren wir, dass Rüstungsprojekte neben der militärischen auch eine technologische, wirtschaftliche, politische und kommunikative Funktion erfüllen.

Wie kaum ein anderes Rüstungsprodukt ist die #F35 darüber hinaus auch ein Instrument der US-amerikanischen Ordnungspolitik, d.h. es geht um Einordnung, Unterordnung und auch um Disziplinierung.

Sie wollen mehr erfahren? Dann greifen Sie mit dem Link im ersten Kommentar auf das Gespräch zu.

cc @Mauro_Gilli @Ce_Moll @_schuetzt @Warkhorse @Konflikt_Sicher @MW42522637 @Bjoern__M @Georg_Haesler

[Defense AI Observatory @Defense_AIO]

@_schuetzt @Warkhorse @vtchakarova @AntonioCalcara @Simona_Soare @MW42522637 @tala201677 @Olivier1Schmitt @IngvildBode @HuonCurtis @Bjoern__M @Konflikt_Sicher @DanielFiott @RCsernatoni @umaima @noahsylvia_

[Defense AI Observatory @Defense_AIO]

📢 New DAIO Country Study on Indonesia 🇮🇩📚
We are happy to release "A Careful Wal on Thin Ice: #DefenseAI in #Indonesia" by Emanuel Ario Bimo and Bagus Jatmiko. Get your copy here:

https://t.co/0z8tyMfdEC

[Defense AI Observatory @Defense_AIO]

cc @J_B_C16 @aigraae @kmartin_FRS @LLiversain @Mauro_Gilli @aa_gilli @ZaccagniniIvan @taiyosfc @RaquelJorgeR @Katarzyna_Zysk @MichaelRaska @ckurc @kennethpayne01 @Lauren_A_Kahn @RoyLindelauf @mmmvdooren @thinkstrat23 @Shimona_ @KitschQuixote @Sami_Jarvinen @vactivity

[Defense AI Observatory @Defense_AIO]

@_schuetzt @Warkhorse @AntonioCalcara @Simona_Soare @MW42522637 @tala201677 @aleruss0 @Olivier1Schmitt @IngvildBode @HuonCurtis @Bjoern__M @Konflikt_Sicher @DanielFiott @RCsernatoni @umaima

[Defense AI Observatory @Defense_AIO]

📣New Study: Defense AI in the Arab Gulf Region📚
We are excited to release "Bonds That Separate. Defense AI in the Arab Gulf States" by @HeikoBorchert. Get your copy here: https://t.co/fmnEsK2ra6

[Defense AI Observatory @Defense_AIO]

cc @J_B_C16 @aigraae @kmartin_FRS @LLiversain @Mauro_Gilli @aa_gilli @ZaccagniniIvan @taiyosfc @RaquelJorgeR @Katarzyna_Zysk @MichaelRaska @ckurc @kennethpayne01 @Lauren_A_Kahn @RoyLindelauf @mmmvdooren @thinkstrat23 @Shimona_ @KitschQuixote @Sami_Jarvinen @vactivity