Dougie Kass

Seabreeze Capital Partners LP

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

This is remarkable. I wish had the means of verifying.

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

what has happened to our country?

[Acyn @Acyn]

Q: How many individuals take advantage of birth tourism?

Trump: I'll tell you right now, hundreds of thousands. You have one man came in with a family had said he had 56 children. Another one came in—they said they had 98 children

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

The S&P Short Range Oscillator is at 2.93%, increasingly overbought. @jimcramer @tomkeene

[Anthony Scaramucci @Scaramucci]

To all my friends on X, I have a favor to ask you.

My new book, All the Wrong Moves, comes out in September, and I wrote it for people like you, people who are paying attention, who can see that something has gone wrong in this country, and who want to understand how we actually got here.

From my upbringing in a blue-collar family on Long Island, to Wall Street, to my very public failure in Washington, I've had a front-row seat to how the system works, how it breaks down, and what it costs ordinary people when it does.

This book is about the anger-based populism we're living through right now, where it came from, what's driving it, and what we can actually do to heal and improve the society we all share.

My favor is to pre-order a copy and tell a friend to get one too.

The country is starving for honest analysis and real solutions. This is my attempt to contribute.

Thank you. I mean it. ❤️

[Michael Taylor @Mike_Taylor1972]

@DougKass Your work is appreciated!!
Feet to fire.

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

And Dan Ives @dives redundant.

[Andy Etnyre @AEtnyre1968]

@DougKass No surprised @TheJudgeCNBC was pumping …..he’s got Tom Lee on right now to spew his BS again 🤡

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

@SeabreezeLP @TheStreetPro
I Want to Take You Higher

*  And thank you (Falettinme Be Mice Elf Agin)

*  Given the superior reward vs. risk that I see, I have substantially increased my cannabis holdings over the last month...

"Beat is getting stronger

Music gettin’ longer, too

Music is a flashin’ me

I want to I want to I want to take you higher"

-Sly and The Family Stone, I Want to Take You Higher

“Be greedy when others are fearful.”

– Warren Buffett

The legions of retail traders and investors in cannabis over the last half a decade (aka “the walking dead“) have gotten absolutely decimated in the space.

Resultingly (and in the absence of institutional involvement in the sector), the demand/supply equation is problematic as the illiquid trading conditions are suboptimal — having left retail unable to sustain any price cannabis stability and appreciation.

Of course, in a market that is momentum-oriented (“buyers live higher, sellers live lower”), the continued selling in cannabis begets more selling.

It is my view that this has created a unique longer-term investing opportunity for the reasons mentioned in the body of this post — with upside reward at roughly 4x downside risk.

Most importantly, it is likely that the rescheduling of adult recreational use of cannabis will be implemented in the relatively near term.

Almost as important will be the possibility of some retroactive relief (probably back to 2023 when HHS granted relief for medical marijuana usage) from the accumulated and large tax obligations (UTP or Uncertain Tax Position) imposed by Section 280E in the IRS Code:

UTP stands for Uncertain Tax Position. It refers to tax deductions or credits—frequently related to Internal Revenue Code Section 280E, which historically barred cannabis businesses from claiming ordinary business expenses—that multi-state operators carry as financial balance-sheet liabilities while disputing or awaiting federal reform.

– AI Overview

As noted previously, I am growing much more optimistic about the prospects for share-price appreciation in the cannabis complex. Here are some of the reasons for my enthusiasm:

* I am extremely confident that rescheduling of both medical and adult recreational use will pass in the next few months. The consensus view is much more skeptical (measured by Polymarket) providing investors with an “overlay.” (In betting terms it’s a selection where the offered odds are higher than the true probability. In the case of cannabis stocks they are discounting a too low probability of rescheduling than I expect) — ergo, I am getting a better payout! (As mentioned above, some retrospective relief of IRS Code 280E will likely follow, serving to reduce current UTP (tax debt obligations) and increase the intrinsic value of cannabis companies).

* Reverse splits for many companies have set up for uplistings on the senior U.S. exchanges — to be implemented in the near term. This improves the possibility of institutional involvement.

* More relaxed custodian rules will also likely set the stage for active institutional interest in the group.

* Speaking of institutional ownership, I like getting ahead of it.

* The recent debt refinancings have eliminated the frightening debt maturity cliff that some feared. Both interest rates and maturities are favorable for the group.

* Based on this week’s EPS releases, industry fundamentals (volumes and pricing) have stabilized.

* Given the above, expectations are extraordinarily low.

* Massive absolute and relative underperformance over the last five years has created a long runway for appreciation.

* The equity capitalization of the five largest cannabis players only totals about $5.5 billion!

* I expect industry consolidation over the balance of the year and it is not out of the realm of possibility that tobacco or consumer packaged goods companies try to get a toehold in the cannabis sector through the takeover of several of the top-five individual cannabis companies.

Again, for emphasis — this is a speculative space so comply with your risk disciplines and appetite.

As for me, I relish the weakness as an opportunity based on my previous comments.

Hall of Fame baseball player “Wee” Willie Keeler (who weighed only 140 lbs and stood only 5’4″) famously explained his high batting average by saying he aimed for open spaces on the baseball field where fielders were not standing:

“Keep your eye clear and hit ’em where they ain’t.“

In cannabis, we are hitting ’em where they ain’t.

Finally,��thank you (Falettinme Be Mice Elf Agin)!

BY Doug Kass · Aug 6, 2026, 1:35 PM EDT @shadddales @thedalesreport @V_arrell @fritzalders @kylekazanceo @_AaronMiles_ @JasonGWild @WolfOfWeedST @Bkov9 @business @msnbc @cnn @tomkeene @TheJudgeCNBC @timseymour

[Seabreeze Partners @SeabreezeLP]

The case for cannabis

"I Want to Take You Higher"

Now on the blog tab of https://t.co/2GZ8seYpnd

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

More Tales From Nvidia - And More Ironies (Issue #232) @thestreetpro

Two definitions of irony:

* Softbank needs to use their stock in Open AI to fund their next investment into Open AI: https://t.co/YpYZLyuX7t. Google, who actually in theory has money needs to sell more debt to fund their investments into AI, and credit spreads blow out further

* Microsoft is telling their employees to use less AI because it is too expensive, when they are trying to shove it down everyone’s throat and disclose that most of their growth is coming from Open AI, whose big investor needs to use their stock to fund its next investment into Open AI. I cannot keep up: https://t.co/TPT631c9zx

Meanwhile Google shocks with another $25 billion bond offering - and hyperscaler credit spreads blow out. @SquawkCNBC @andrewrsorkin @beckyquick @joesquawk @TheJudgeCNBC @carlquintanilla @saraeisen @SullyCNBC @cnbcfastmoney @cnbchalftime @convertbond @peterboockvar @gnoble79 @KeithMcCullough @SamofAmerica @RPKent @KellyCNBC @HedgeyeDJ @guyadami @whitneytilson @tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1 @annmarie @ferrotv @business @edzitron @TheDomino @DarioCpx

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

@thestreetpro

More Tales From Nvidia - More on Circular Deals, Insider Sales, Executive Stock Compensation and The Ratio of Debt To AI Production "Units"  (Issue #  229!) $NVDA

"If you're playing a poker game and you look around the table and can't tell who the sucker is, it's you."
- Paul Newman

First, look at the picture below (on the @thestreetpro site) - they are going on sale now!  Special offer, get it while it’s hot!!

This of course is consistent with token prices cratering.

Equity prices, seemingly do the opposite, which is contradictory but does not make much sense.  Such is life...

Amazon's management tells investors how great things are, then Jeff Bezos turns around and files to sell $4 billion of stock (https://t.co/N9HGY2qHjB).  The sellers of stock (almost every insider at every tech company whose stock has ripped) are seemingly much more aware of the underlying fundamentals and valuations than the buyers of stock.
The incentive structure for executives rewards them in huge form for behaviors that drive their stock prices up over the short term.  Once the stock prices go up, they will do anything to keep the shell game going, as evidenced by all of the circular financing, so they can keep selling more stock at elevated prices.  That is their incentive structure.  If it all blows up, they still come out way ahead.  The money from the stock sales stays in the bank, they keep their jobs, fire all the extra people they hired, and exempt themselves from all of the fallout.  Quite the deal if you can get it.

Regarding the sale offer below, is a very interesting analysis/chart which shows the INCREMENTAL return on capital for the hyperscalers is cratering.  In the June quarter the group increased its LTM EBIT 20% year over year.  It took almost a 2x (38%) increase in deployed capital to achieve that growth.

This reminds me of the U.S. economy overall and the amount of incremental dollars of government debt it takes to increase a unit or dollar of GDP!One would think that some very  hard spending decisions will have to be made soon  because unlike the U.S. government, the spenders are not the world's reserve currency. 

This is all prior to token prices cratering (in fact it included the benefit of token maxxing in the June quarter) and irrespective of the fact that an enormous amount of demand is coming from businesses like Open AI which are far from self-sustaining entities.

If the spigot gets turned off for any of these players... look out below _____________________________________________________

Post Script

Further on the issue of token growth (or lack thereof) and massive price cutting, I would not be surprised if the entire industry turns into something not much different from an electric utility.  It seems there should be some sort of intelligent router that lets customers blindly procure tokens, on the basis of good enough to do the job at the best possible price.  All of it, including the models, is a pure commodity. 

Instead of making a choice and buying from a particular provider, it should just be the best deal available at the moment.  Ex government intervention (who knows I cannot call that), it seems this is the logical outcome for the entire industry.

It may be one giant undifferentiated commodity - both the compute and the model layers.  It should be purchased by the drink, based on the best available price.  It is not challenging for it to evolve this way from a tech perspective either, it is easy to do ... (another group of charts on @thestreetpro site)

@SquawkCNBC @andrewrsorkin @beckyquick @joesquawk @TheJudgeCNBC @carlquintanilla @TheDomino @SaraEisen @guyadami @cnbcfastmoney @cnbchalftime @SullyCNBC @tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1 @ferrotv @annmarie @business @gnoble79 @KeithMcCullough @SamofAmerica @RPKent @HedgeyeDJ @WhitneyTilson @peterboockvar @convertbond @edzitron @DarioCpx

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

I don't understand alot of my posts, either! Enjoy the weekend DR.

[Dave_R @pgh_dave]

@DougKass I only understand about 27, maybe 28%, of your posts. Once I finish reading the internet, I'm hoping to get my understanding up to 30%. Love your posts.

[Sharemaestro @smarketdynamics]

@DougKass Keep speaking that truth! Someone has to hold them accountable, and there are too few doing so. Retail investors are easily sucked in by the media machine that is programmed to conspire against them. Great to see you holding them accountable so publicly.

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

son of aeolus

[S3 Mary Jane @BiggieSmallscap]

@DougKass Sisyphean task

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

https://t.co/SNJh2FT3Gk

[+60.24.7.365+ 🇺🇲 @LiQuidPr0Qu0]

If memory serves me correct bro you were a regular booked guest on CNBC for years
Not sure where the fallout happened but you seem SALTY
Bad look
You're better than that
I always paid attention to your intellect & insights about the markets
Focus on that & let others be/do their thing
Stay positive and Be positive my friend
If you need to vent DM one older trader/investor to another
Public takedowns are just not going to bring good outcomes
I know a bunch of the folks at these FIN Networks and on balance they're good people trying to inform their audience
Maybe get back on the horse - start with Bloomberg as they're where more our type pay attention
They cut through alot of the noise & their financial journalists have high integrity
They can veer off a little with political bias but that seems to be an achilles heel for so many
Markets don't give a r*ts a** about your political views tbh they just don't
Remember Danny Kahneman 🙏 Thinking Fast & Slow
Re read that work as it is SO important to keep fresh
You have always been a cool dude and a well respected market voice let's not turn into the Keith Olberman of Fin X!!!
Be well
Stay well

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

thanks for your advice, it is appreciated
but i am taking the role as advocate for the retail viewers - so of which don't know better but many of them not informed properly of credentials of panelists and/or their record of investment recommendations..... as to my histrionics with @cnbc that has been thoroughly explained on twitter and @thestreetpro (basically i sent a personal email to scott wapner about cnbc being cheerleaders regarding a position taken by a leading hedge fund in apple (in reality the position was de minimis and cnbc made a very big deal about it)
i was a regular monthly guest host on @squawkbox from 2003 to 2013 - in the days where you really guest hosted the show for three hours - asking penetrating questions go show guests.
anyway, someone as cnbc intercepted my email and sent it to the ny post (without my permission) and the ny post published it as the lead article on page six the next day, the column declared cnbc was a bunch of cheerleaders and quoted my email (without my knowledge of it being rerouted)
my email sent to scott was a personal email and not intended for distribution.
https://t.co/TCuv12R8cW
CNBC cheerleaders | New York Post

[+60.24.7.365+ 🇺🇲 @LiQuidPr0Qu0]

If memory serves me correct bro you were a regular booked guest on CNBC for years
Not sure where the fallout happened but you seem SALTY
Bad look
You're better than that
I always paid attention to your intellect & insights about the markets
Focus on that & let others be/do their thing
Stay positive and Be positive my friend
If you need to vent DM one older trader/investor to another
Public takedowns are just not going to bring good outcomes
I know a bunch of the folks at these FIN Networks and on balance they're good people trying to inform their audience
Maybe get back on the horse - start with Bloomberg as they're where more our type pay attention
They cut through alot of the noise & their financial journalists have high integrity
They can veer off a little with political bias but that seems to be an achilles heel for so many
Markets don't give a r*ts a** about your political views tbh they just don't
Remember Danny Kahneman 🙏 Thinking Fast & Slow
Re read that work as it is SO important to keep fresh
You have always been a cool dude and a well respected market voice let's not turn into the Keith Olberman of Fin X!!!
Be well
Stay well

[… @Anthony_IV]

@DougKass u might remember better than me but wasn't $BROS yet another "Top Pick" from @Downtown Josh Brown that he absolutely loves?

[Seabreeze Partners @SeabreezeLP]

"More Tales From Nvidia: Circular Deals, Insider Sales, Debt-to-AI Production ‘Units’ (Issue # 231!)"

now on the blog tab of https://t.co/t72WstQ9LJ

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

As we expected (short Nasdaq) there were numerous disappointments (relative to expectations) in tech releases after the close ($SNDK (-$150), Data Dog, Western Dig, etc)... More on @thestreetpro @tomkeene @tomkeene @business @TheJudgeCNBC @cnbcfastmoney @cnbchalftime @convertbond @peterboockvar @guyadami @jimcramer