Duncan Mcclements

[Duncan Mcclements @DuncanMcClement]

@MattRyanTucker @bswud @TACJ Yep mean substitutes in econ sense: can spend more at margin on transmission upgrades to reduce CM (imports/diversification so less need for reserves). Means that CM drop overstates saving bc driven by transmission substitution, breaking this apart messy so used today's values

[Duncan Mcclements @DuncanMcClement]

@MattRyanTucker @bswud @TACJ CM/transmission are substitutes: T-4 cleared low partly bc more transmission, Ben James has TNUoS £40→£105/HH. Low CM/more transmission are mirror image. Used current values for both in blog, didn't decide split; headline maybe lower but gap not v big: if full £22 ~9% of total

[Centre for British Progress @BritishProgress]

💫 We’re launching the Centre for British Progress

Our founding essay: Rediscovering British Progress is a case for growth that drives shared progress, rooted in Britain's values and industrial heritage.

It all starts with a postcard from 1870 👇

https://t.co/3CKCERU7Y2

[Duncan Mcclements @DuncanMcClement]

@ChrisSpoke @inferencemag 3-9pp above 2-3pp typical growth!

[Duncan Mcclements @DuncanMcClement]

NEW: Why will AI probably not cause explosive economic growth in the immediate term?

The story in San Francisco goes like this: Soon we'll create AI researchers → they'll recursively self-improve → superintelligence → 30%+ economic growth

Reality might differ. Here's why:

[Duncan Mcclements @DuncanMcClement]

Want the full analysis with detailed methodology and data?
Read more at @InferenceMag: https://t.co/WxZbMK523u

[Duncan Mcclements @DuncanMcClement]

Why so "low"?
Capital: new workers need capital
Baumol effect: least-automated sectors bind
Engel effect: wealth goes to harder-to-automate services

[Duncan Mcclements @DuncanMcClement]

@bpritcha @inferencemag In the renewables case, batteries are £11.62 of the £106 cost - so large prices falls only have small direct changes. Indirect effects are also small - an additional 24GWh of batteries even if free would only reduce costs by £5 via greater renewables potential

[Inference @inferencemag]

In the next 2 years, newly built AI datacentres will demand roughly 200 times as much power as Liverpool!

👇Our proposal below sets out how the UK can catch this wave of growth and build a new industry for the future

[Adam Smith Institute @ASI]

🚨 New Paper Alert 🚨

🐔 𝐶𝑜𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑑 𝑈𝑝

✍️ Duncan McClements and Jason Hausenloy

❗ In the first calculation of its kind in the UK, we found that our planning system is costing the UK economy 𝐮𝐩 𝐭𝐨 £𝟏𝟑𝟖.𝟓 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 👇

[Maxwell Marlow 🇺🇦 @maxwell_marlow]

Really cool blog by the excellent Duncan McClements and Jason Hausenloy on mandatory insurance being superior to regulation.

@MRJKilcoyne

https://t.co/vtyXb6neCl

[Jason Hausenloy @jasonhausenloy]

Are overly prescriptive regulations why Britain is stuck? In our latest post, "Insuring Progress", @DuncanMcClement and I analyse how outcome-based regulation & mandatory insurance can boost growth in childcare, energy, housing.

Link: https://t.co/BxoJnyl91z

(Our entry for the @txp_io blog prize)

[Model Thinking @model_thinking]

1/12 🧵 Exploring an intriguing idea: could schools and universities be funded by a % of future student income, rather than upfront fees? This model may reshape the education landscape and the workforce in the #UK.