Dave Vogel

Student of the financial markets. If you have to pay someone else for trade ideas, better to hang it up now.

[Dave Vogel @Dvogel4]

@zerohedge If the bid is accepted and you were a buyer of $PYPL just about anytime in the last 8-9 years, you just got your losses locked in lol. Terrible company.

[Dave Vogel @Dvogel4]

$SPCX hitting fresh lows. Sold a few OTM puts as I think they defend price a bit until the insiders get a chance to sell in a few weeks. If not, I get some discounted shares.

[Dave Vogel @Dvogel4]

So…rate hikes, spiking inflation, and expanded war imminent, but gold continues to bleed? 🤔

Good luck with that thesis guys.

$GLD

[Dave Vogel @Dvogel4]

Also why $GLD and $SLV have been 💩 investments in 2026 and will continue to be for years to come. They had their moment. And it’s over.

[Dave Vogel @Dvogel4]

Deflation (or at least disinflation) is coming. T-bonds already caught a whiff $TLT

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

BOOM

*OPENAI LEANS TOWARD WAITING UNTIL NEXT YEAR FOR IPO: NYT

The overpriced agentic bubble is over. Good luck

[Dave Vogel @Dvogel4]

Very similar look in $SLV. Not constructive.

[Dave Vogel @Dvogel4]

$GLD bulls taking a beating after the panic buying in Jan and it’s still not looking good going forward:

•Definitively broke 200 MA
•came back to retest & failed
•now lower low (unless it recovers in a hurry today)
•Triangle top breaking down
•USD ripping to the upside

[Dave Vogel @Dvogel4]

@zerohedge And they were all correct

[Lance Roberts @LanceRoberts]

The speculation boom since 2020 reminds me so much of what I saw from 1995 to 2000. There was a slow ramp-up, and as the bull market created overconfidence, it accelerated into the "pop."
Given that a majority of investors today have never been through a real "bear market," the amount of pain that will eventually come from the unwinding will be difficult to watch.

[Dave Vogel @Dvogel4]

So, your position is that rate hikes are imminent, but T-bond traders have been rotating into duration for a month? Including today’s post-Fed move? I’ve got a bridge I’d like to show you…

Long $TLT

[Dave Vogel @Dvogel4]

@zerohedge Not a chance

[Dave Vogel @Dvogel4]

@mark_ungewitter Serious question, by outperform does that mean going up more than? Or just falling less than? Bc both will increase the ratio and the chart suggests the latter.

Long $IWM, short $SPY ?

[Dave Vogel @Dvogel4]

Strait closed —> oil down, stocks up. The market no longer cares about Iran.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

IRAN DECLARES HORMUZ STRAIT CLOSED

Iran’s newly formed strait authority said the Strait of Hormuz is closed “until further notice” following escalating military exchanges with the United States. The IRGC also claimed the waterway is shut to all vessels, though US officials say commercial traffic continues. Once a key global oil route, traffic through the strait has already fallen to about 15% of pre-war levels, according to JPMorgan.

[Dave Vogel @Dvogel4]

@_rob_anderson @Chartfest1 @NDR_Research Analogs are suspect on so many levels. But if you want to play, the tariff tantrum bottom is in the wrong location. Fall ‘98 where it should be. Financial stress ultimately led to Fed rate cuts and fueled final blowoff tops. The Iran war dip is an anomaly.

[Dave Vogel @Dvogel4]

@Chartfest1 Bond market going to end this war scenario real quick.

[Dave Vogel @Dvogel4]

@zerohedge It’s already happened. In Japan. UST is a sideways topping process after the ‘22-‘23 ramp. Zoom out.

[Dave Vogel @Dvogel4]

@biancoresearch @McClellanOsc Because the market always gets the rate hike/cut projections correct. Wasn’t that many months ago bond traders were pricing in the initial stages of recession. And now hikes.

TL;DR The forecasts are all worthless.

[Dave Vogel @Dvogel4]

Market up, VIX up. Market down, VIX down.

What a strange environment we currently have. 0DTE options have entirely distorted market action and should never have been allowed. As if the stock market wasn’t enough of a casino already.

$SPY $QQQ

[Dave Vogel @Dvogel4]

Another has-been getting run higher $QCOM

[Dave Vogel @Dvogel4]

You know it’s very late in the game when they start running the has-been names $INTC

[Dave Vogel @Dvogel4]

@mark_ungewitter Great chart. Note the dip back toward the downtrend line before sideways. We’ve yet to see any kind of dip this time around, and a similar dip would be substantial from current levels.