Josef

[JJ Zachariason @LateRoundQB]

Speed Scores for the running backs who ran their 40s. These are official times via https://t.co/SzOdI4Grpm.

Mike Washington has the second-highest Speed Score in the ZAP Model database, which goes back to 2011. Keith Marshall only beat him by 0.05.

[Ryan Heath @RyanJ_Heath]

My biggest takeaway from the Draft is that the 12/13 personnel trend is real.

There will be a bigger edge than ever in fantasy to identifying who is playing in 1- and 2-WR sets, and which teams will still live in 11.

These are efficiency hacks. Will be exploring in my content.

[Ron Stewart @RonStewart_]

RB hit rates by Round since 2017. What sticks out?

[Jacob Gibbs @jagibbs_23]

A WR prime = ages 25-29, per the work of @RyanJ_Heath

This thread will compare the most productive WR primes of the 2000's

Top-five in yards per route run:
2.97 - Julio Jones
2.87 - NICO COLLINS
2.73 - Tyreek Hill
2.67 - A.J. Brown
2.64 - Antonio Brown

(Yard per route data = 2013-24)
(All data filters out games aged 24 or younger as well as 30 or older. We're only looking at data from "prime age range")

Top-five in yards per game:
104 - Julio Jones
102 - Antonio Brown
100 - Calvin Johnson
93 - Davante Adams
92 - Marvin Harrison

[Hayden Winks @HaydenWinks]

"win the flex"

[Ryan Heath @RyanJ_Heath]

Using FIRST DOWNS PER ROUTE RUN (1D/RR) to identify fantasy football sleepers

Over the past few years, this stat was better than YPRR, TPRR, air yards share, and tons of others at predicting fantasy points per game.

Here’s who I’m targeting based on it (via @FantasyPtsData)

[Davis Mattek @DavisMattek]

The insane disparity between 1st round rookie WR fantasy points per game and Day 3 WR points per game

Since 2014 there have 47 RD1 WRs; 24 of those WRs scored > 10 PPR points per game

There have been 87 Day 3 WRs (who got on the field); 8 of those players scored 10 > 10 PPR points per game

Almost startling how much you can control for fantasy points by just sorting by draft capital

[Skrip @P2WFantasy]

What does it take to be the WR1 overall in Fantasy Football?

I looked at the last 10 seasons, pulled the WR1 numbers, averaged the data then….

Projected forward to 2025 for a list of WR’s who could finish WR1 in Fantasy Football this season ⬇️

[Ryan Heath @RyanJ_Heath]

If a player scores 10, 15, or 20 fantasy points in a given week, how many Wins Above Replacement does it lead to?

Pretty much the same in each bucket at every non-QB position.

In other words, stop drafting TEs over WRs you think will outscore them straight up.

h/t @LGilbertFF

[Scott Barrett @ScottBarrettDFB]

Average Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of the ____ most valuable player in fantasy over the last five years

overall = 4.50
2nd = 3.73
3rd = 3.28
4th = 2.90
5th = 2.63
6th = 2.43
7th = 2.24
8th = 2.11
9th = 2.01
10th = 1.88
11th = 1.75
12th = 1.66

What does this mean?

Imagine we knew exactly how many fantasy points every player would score in 2025 and in what weeks they would score those points.

If you were the 1.12, what would be a fair price to pay for the 1.01?

If you assumed all of your leaguemates drafted their players in line with their WAR, your whole roster in combination would still be less valuable than the 1.01.

The most valuable player in fantasy (in any given year) is worth roughly 4.50 WAR, but your first 5 picks....

the 1.12 (12) = 1.66
the 2.01 (13) = 1.53
the 3.12 (36) = 0.18
the 4.01 (37) = 0.12
the 5.12 (60) = -0.46

...add up to only 3.03 WAR, before we start getting into negative value players (which starts at pick 4.06)

This is the power of the power law in fantasy.

[Ron Stewart @RonStewart_]

Since the Legendary 2017 RB Draft Class,

Round 2 RBs>>>>>Round 3 RBs

[Josef @Dynasty_PoPo]

@nickercolano Ward, Hunter, Harvey, Loveland, Dart, Ebuka, Burden

[Zachary Krueger @ZK_FFB]

@EmanTweetz @AlfredJF Even Josh Allen (16.3%) and Dak Prescott (16.7%) had relatively strong P2S% for their CFB career and have been very good NFL QBs.

An immediate red flag for me is anything above 20% P2S in college. If it's below that, I'll give you at least a chance.

[Ryan Heath @RyanJ_Heath]

Been quieter on here lately because I’ve been working on this behemoth.

An extensive study on the career arcs of the top RBs, WRs, and TEs spanning two decades. Packed with actionable takeaways for your fantasy team in 2023.

I hope you’ll give it a read

https://t.co/LOIJS3GZ99

[Matthew Berry @MatthewBerryTMR]

An annual tradition! The 25 Most Interesting Things I Heard at the #NFLCombine2024 - Over the years this column has a pretty good track record... It's posted now and as always 100% free. https://t.co/gIvXsLzf9j

[EK 🦾🤖🦾 @ekballer]

Just popping the ol' Pick Value Cycle Chart out again, as per some requests.

Here's the article where I explain what to do with it as well: https://t.co/zENi9du1hC

[Jared Smola @SmolaDS]

Spent most of the past month building 2024 fantasy football projections. (Available now @DraftSharks!)

Here are 132 things I learned throughout the process.

https://t.co/tH6aPSy1vF

[Adam Harstad @AdamHarstad]

I have other heuristics that I think are good but need some workshopping from a slogan standpoint.

"Be willing to trade any non-core asset for future firsts", for instance. Again, the heuristic has nuance (what counts as a non-core asset?), but the rule is simple.

[Jax Falcone (scott) @DynoGameTheory]

In summary:

1. Day 1 or 2 early declare
2. 6’4” / 245 pounds +
3. 4.70 40 or better
4. 100 or more speed score
5. 14 or more career YPC
6. 20% + share of TDs/Yards
7. 15% + share or receptions
8. 1.60 + YPTPA
9. 10+ career TDs

These tight ends are big and fast.

[Anthony Amico @amicsta]

Put even simpler, we should value what the scouts think!

For more on this topic, check out my full article (linked), and be sure to follow @EstablishTheRun for all of your dynasty fantasy football coverage this draft season!

https://t.co/tR8EuGGwth