I’ve joined @ycombinator to build @Exosat_
As the world becomes more multipolar, enterprises and governments are nervous about dependence on Starlink or Chinese state-owned satellites for critical network infrastructure
Meanwhile, much of the world still has no reliable connectivity and other providers face years of delay and need millions of dollars just to build a single satellite
Exosat is filling that need by designing satellites with zero ITAR/EAR-controlled content, enabling us to leverage manufacturers anywhere in the world to produce our satellites at under a tenth of the cost and launch them from other nations to bypass capacity bottlenecks and access equatorial orbits
We launch our first in-house satellite next April, have hundreds of millions of dollars in Letters of Intent with early partners across six nations, and have a ITU spectrum filing for 11,000 satellites to build the largest space-based cellular network outside of the United States and China
If you can raise $500k, you can use that $500k to do productive things that could let you raise $5M, and if you raise $5M, you can do things that convince people to give you $50M, and if you raise $50M, maybe you can sell your thing someday to a smuck for $1B
The ultimate grift
Rocket Lab is raising the price of Neutron to $70 million per launch, up from $55 million; a sure sign of excessive demand from satellite operators right now.
Vance goes to the Oracle of Delphi to ask about the midterm elections in six months.
The Oracle says the party who wins will be the one making Mussolini edits, and the one that loses will be making genderbent Harry Potter fanfiction. He smiles. Victory is surely at hand.
The Ming Dynasty spent around the same % of their annual budget on pensioners, concubines and eunuchs as the United States does on Social Security and defense
Insane!
Ming Dynasty budget as of ~1582. Completely insane that they were spending almost a third of the budget on useless non-working stipendiaries compared to under 1% on the combined salaries of the entire bureaucracy. Do not do this.
Have heard that defense tech has one of the worst ratios of $ invested versus real revenue (excluding SBIRs) of any field and much of it is unacquirable by primes or PE
$ and talent would be better allocated by existing neoprimes with existing DoW pipelines imo
Defense tech startups are flush with investor cash and short on production contracts. That gap is the problem. Here are the numbers:
The top 100 defense startups tracked by the Silicon Valley Defense Group have raised more than $118 billion. In 2025, all 100 combined won $4.3 billion in government awards.
Government auditors found the Defense Innovation Unit made 450 prototype awards from 2016 to 2023. Only 62, about 14%, turned into production deals. That's roughly half of the prototypes that actually finished.
A prototype proves the gear works. Only a production contract pays the bills year after year, and investor patience can run out before the Pentagon gets around to buying.
The author's advice to startups: start shopping for a buyer while you still have at least six months of cash.
@risknc They don't need to launch external payloads beyond USG to raise money in general, and you'd think there would be more rumours of companies buying Starship capacity if they were doing external sales
Has anyone outside of Voyager/Starlab successfully bought launch capacity from Starship?
Upmass and falling upcost for SpaceX is not upmass or falling launch prices for you
For the last ~5 years, the first slide in virtually every space startup's pitch was about "falling launch costs" and/or "Starship launch mass"
Neither of those premises has come to pass, and I don't think many startups or VCs have realized that's not where the world is headed