Zach W

Mountain biking engineering geek

[Zach W @Endurozw]

@Cernovich Needed this - this has been happening recently and I hadn’t even pondered it.

[Zach W @Endurozw]

@thatsmouz @antibearthesis I was going to say - this math feels off. I’ll upvote.

[Zach W @Endurozw]

@danishnuclear That’s the way to do it. Just need to clear out dreams of a 7x run. Sell the rips especially if they feel irrational.

[Zach W @Endurozw]

@xtrememike71 @PepperyTwill @Thefrugalgay11 Because it’s a membership club?

[Zach W @Endurozw]

@norbertomarques @unusual_whales Have to fire project management to reduce meetings 😂

[Lord Tom Fluffytail ☭‍⃠ ࿕⃠ @GoalieTomFluff]

The politicians can eat shit. Americans are our allies

[Zach W @Endurozw]

Interesting #uranium item

[Edwin Lyman @NucSafetyUCS]

Not exactly a surprise.

https://t.co/HGPFFPJvXZ

[Caleb Hammer @sircalebhammer]

Innovation is finally coming to Canada

[Zach W @Endurozw]

@ErikSTownsend @MacroVoices Nuclear interviews I’d be fine with long form but 90% of interviews the currently length is perfect. Just enough to fill a commute.

[Zach W @Endurozw]

@UrCakeDaddy The key is to never get hopeful. If you feel hope you need to sell. If you’re just waiting for the next beating it doesn’t hurt as badly 😆

[Erik Townsend 🛢️ @ErikSTownsend]

Mining CEOs are certainly an interesting bunch.

For any uninitiated readers who don't know who Raymond is referring to, Leigh Curyer @leighcuryer is CEO of $NXE NexGen Energy, one of my biggest holdings and a terrific operating company. I love the company, just a little unclear on the marketing theory behind waving banners around announcing ~30M lbs/yr from $NXE's Rook I project in the Athabasca Basin.

Here's the part I can't square. Leigh won't sign a fixed-price contract — every pound NexGen has committed is market-related, because he's confident prices are heading much higher. Fine, so am I. But then he tours the conference circuit telling every fuel buyer on earth that a 30M lb/yr wave is coming — the one message guaranteed to keep those buyers relaxed and that market-related price deck suppressed. He's betting his shareholders' revenue on high prices while personally supplying the sedative. In software we'd have called that shipping the exploit for your own product.

Leigh started this campaign around 2016, when his claim was about the "post-2020" market. In March 2024 he changed his tune to "2027-2028", and now it's 2030 when his Rook I will supposedly deliver a massive supply increase Leigh originally billed as adding 25% to global supply (presumably crashing prices with more supply than the market can absorb, or so many fuel buyers seem to be assuming).

And here's the kicker: tally the pounds that already fell out of the 2030 supply curve since these promises were made — Niger, PLS, the Kazakh ceiling cut, Boss's withdrawn feasibility study — and Arrow at full nameplate doesn't add net supply at all. It backfills a crater. The fuel buyers are netting a 2032 promise against a 2022 supply curve that no longer exists.

Now to be clear, Leigh is actually saying the exact opposite: that U is scarce, so buy now! But CEOs are expected to have the sophistication to recognize and focus on the IMPACT of their statements, and change their messaging if impact doesn't match intent.

In software we had a name for this: the Osborne Effect. In 1983, Osborne Computer pre-announced a spectacular future machine, buyers stopped buying the current one while they waited, and the company was bankrupt within the year. Leigh's intent is the opposite — he says uranium is scarce, contract now — but markets respond to the announcement, not the intent. He's Osborne-ing the entire uranium term market. And since every NexGen pound is priced off that market, he's Osborne-ing his own future revenue along with it.

Here's the twist that makes it worse: the uranium market is forward-looking in exactly one direction. Nobody ever NEEDS to buy today — every pound purchased feeds a reactor load years out — so buyers happily discount promised future supply and defer. But the same market refuses to discount visible future demand. Leigh is feeding the only kind of forward-looking this market actually does. Bottom line (IMHO): Leigh's messaging designed to increase $NXE's share price is suppressing the commodity price that share price is leveraged to — costing the stock far more than the marketing could ever add.

How many fuel buyers have paused to consider what would happen if one of the hyperscalers simply acquired $NXE (whole company market cap just over $7bn - pocket change for the hyperscalers), then just set aside the entire reserve for their own use over the next few decades, revising $NXE's free-market supply projection for the 2030s from 30M lbs/yr to ZERO? Here's a hint: Just because fuel buyers aren't that forward looking, don't assume the hyperscalers aren't. They all see where this is headed, hence the XE and Kairos alliances.

Yeah yeah, I know about Canada's protections against foreign control of strategic national resources. But a hyperscaler could take Rook I's ENTIRE production off market contractually without buying the company, and without requiring ICA review. Or they could just buy several other mines in other jurisdictions, for the identical effect on global supply.

The silliest aspect of this is how quick the fuel buyers are to credit "paper supply" (promised based on estimates) as part of the supply/demand equation, without simultaneously adding projected but as-yet unfunded projects to the demand column. Sure, of course Rook I will deliver a big and welcome addition to supply. But even if 30M lbs/yr really comes true for $NXE, that figure will pale in comparison to demand expectations from China, AI data centers, higher U3O8 demand from HALEU ramp-up, etc. etc. If you ain't gonna count all that stuff as solid demand, you can't lie to yourselves and pretend Rook I offers assured supply!

Leigh, if you're reading I'd be happy to order you a free copy of Soros' various books covering reflexivity in financial markets. I think you might learn something?
cc: @footnotesfirst @JekyllCapital @uraniuminsider @quakes99

[IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency ⚛️ @iaeaorg]

In a crucial step to help prevent a nuclear accident, the Zaporizhzhya NPP was re-connected to the electrical grid today following successful power line repairs carried out during an IAEA-brokered localized ceasefire, Director General @rafaelmgrossi says.

The restoration of off-site power after an outage lasting almost three weeks means the ZNPP can once again access external electricity to cool its reactors and spent fuel ponds, as well as for other essential nuclear safety and security functions.

It is a much-needed development also as the ZNPP was facing a possible station blackout, with diminishing diesel fuel reserves available to operate emergency generators which have been providing backup power since its sole remaining power line - Ferosplavna-1 - was lost due to military activity north of the Dnipro River on 20 August.

Under the protection of the 7th localized ceasefire negotiated by DG Grossi during the conflict, Ukrainian technicians earlier today completed three days of repairs, paving the way for Ferosplavna-1 to be re-connected to the ZNPP.

DG Grossi thanks both the Russian Federation and Ukraine for engaging with the Agency in agreeing on the ceasefire and enabling off-site power to be restored.

The IAEA will continue its indispensable work to help ensure nuclear safety and security during the conflict, DG Grossi adds.

[Zach W @Endurozw]

@SloCan68 Your average American is 100% not represented by our news networks. I don’t even watch the news I hate how partisan it is. Most of us just drive into work and want to be left alone the rest of the time!

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

At midnight on February 6th, earlier this year, the doorbell to our apartment rang. The doorbell was followed by a pounding on the door. I answered the door and a security person in our building handed me his phone. It was my oldest daughter Eloise. She had found my 26-year-old daughter unconscious on the floor of her apartment and had called 911. The EMT team was already there, but they did not know what was wrong with Lucy or to which hospital they would take her.

I threw on some clothes and jumped in an Uber heading east toward Brooklyn. (Lucy lived alone in Williamsburg.) On the way, I learned that they were taking her to Elmhurst, a City trauma hospital in Queens. I arrived about five minutes after the ambulance to join Eloise, Lucy’s mom, and a friend, and waited to learn what was wrong.

After about 15 minutes, I asked a nurse where she was. I looked over his shoulder to his computer. Next to her name, it said “non-responsive.” I walked into the emergency room and wandered around looking for her until I found her unconscious on a gurney surrounded by several doctors and nurses.

By about 2:30am with the results from a CAT scan, Lucy’s doctors had determined that she had a massive brain hemorrhage and would need an emergency hemicraniectomy to release the pressure on her brain and remove the blood from the hemorrhage. I called our wonderful friend and family doctor Eddie Fisher and explained what was going on. He woke up Josh Bederson, Chairman of Neurosurgery at Mount Sinai, to find out more about Zach Hickman, the neurosurgeon on call that night. Dr. Bederson said Hickman was an excellent surgeon, which was comforting as we had no choice.

The surgery to save Lucy’s life began around 3:15am and finished around 5:30am. It was successful.

The following day, I joined Lucy in an ambulance while she was being transferred to Mount Sinai on Madison Avenue. Later that day, we determined from Lucy’s Oura ring that her hemorrhage had occurred around 9am, which meant that more than 19 hours had passed from the time of the hemorrhage to the completion of the surgery to release the pressure on her brain (I only wish @ouraring had an alert for this kind of a medical event. Imagine it could call a family member if the wearer doesn’t cancel the alert).

I later learned that the standard of care is not to do surgery to save a patient with a large brain bleed if more than five hours have passed since the hemorrhage. Even when the surgery is done, I was told that the likely outcome for the patient is a few months in a nursing home and death from pneumonia.

When I met Lucy’s doctors, I did my best to inspire them: “Let’s see what can be accomplished if we give her the best care possible and we invest unlimited resources to restore her to life.” And I promised that whatever we learned we would make available to everyone.

Dr. Chris Kellner, her neurosurgeon, and Dr. David Putrino, Director of Rehabilitation Innovation for the Mount Sinai Health System have led Lucy’s care team since that day. Words cannot describe the remarkable and compassionate care that she has received beginning with the EMT team and then from nurses, doctors, therapists, and the army of people who have worked to save her and return her to life. To this day, we have a daily Zoom where we discuss her progress and make adjustments to her care. While her care and oversight have been incredible, the learnings for the Mount Sinai team have also been elucidating and will assist in the care of many others.

Lucy began in a bad place. She was in a coma for several weeks and then awoke not being able to breathe on her own, unable to walk, see or speak.

Over the last six months, she has recovered her cognition – she understands everything including her circumstance – is able to walk a hundred or more steps at a time with assistance, is making progress with sounds, vowels and consonants and the beginnings of speech, but she remains unable to see.

Each day, she makes a little progress, and daily progress compounds. Every day I tell her that she just needs to make a little progress and it won’t be long before she is back.

We remain optimistic that Lucy will return to normal function. It will likely take years, but I believe it is only a matter of time, hard work, and technological progress, along with some, and perhaps a lot, of divine intervention.

Many people have been praying for Lucy and we are incredibly grateful for the prayers and remarkable support she has received. Lucy’s friends have been with her every day since the beginning, and their presence and friendship have saved her life and helped to rebuild and maintain her spirit. And on a very positive note, Lucy’s challenge has brought together our entire modern family who have all been incredibly devoted to her care and recovery.

Lucy's vision and other faculties may require some form of brain computer interface, work that is underway at Neuralink, Precision Neuroscience, Science, Synchron, Nudge, and other companies in the space.

If you are going to have a devastating brain injury, now is the best time in history for that to happen. We are living in a world when you can be confident that the blind will soon see again. We are going to do everything we can to help make that happen, including by assisting existing companies in the space.

With respect to our promise to make Lucy’s care available to others, we have made good progress. In May, a real estate colleague made me aware of a 93% vacant, brand new, 400,000 square foot Class A+ purpose-built biotech facility on West End Avenue between 65th and 66th Streets that missed the market and was available for sale. The Pershing Square Foundation acquired the building 60 days later.

We also put under contract an adjoining 130,000 square foot building at 320 West 66th Street that is currently being used by Saturday Night Live for studio space. The building has 35-foot ceilings with massive column-free spaces that can be converted into superb rehabilitation facilities. We will close on the SNL building in December.

We are also acquiring an adjoining vacant lot with additional air rights. With just the existing zoning rights, we can add a 150,000 square feet for a total of 680,000 square feet, a lab footprint larger than Rockefeller University, and that’s without including the potential for an upzoning that would allow for substantially more buildable area on the site’s 3.4 acres with spectacular views of the Hudson.

Our goal is to build the world’s greatest brain research, rehabilitation, recovery, human optimization, and longevity institute. We have named it The Ackman Oxman Institute or the AOI for lack of a better name, but also to reinforce the point that Neri and I and our family are all-in on the mission.

The AOI will be patient-centric. It will not be an academic research institute that produces lots of papers, a Nobel Prize winner or two, but little if any results for patients. We will be laser-focused on cures, treatments, devices, rehabilitation and exercise equipment, and targeted and basic research with a goal of massively accelerating the time from idea to innovation to production to helping a patient.

While the AOI will be a non-profit, it will have highly commercial instincts. The AOI will have its own venture funding and will work to develop innovations to create companies that we will seed, assist, and spinout to ensure technologies, treatments, techniques, and drugs get to patients as promptly as possible.

On one 3.4 acre campus in what is still the greatest city in the world, we will do neurosurgery, neuroscience, rehabilitation, nutrition, BCI and device development, human trials, hyperbaric oxygen treatments, and life extension programs, and we will mandate and incentivize collaboration among the teams with no silos, politics, bureaucracy, or any other constraint that is inconsistent with the mission.

Mount Sinai will be an important partner and deservedly so, but it won’t be our only hospital or medical school partner as we don’t believe any institution has a monopoly on the best ideas or the best talent. We don’t believe in exclusive relationships because that is not in the best interest of patients.

Five years ago, we considered launching a brain institute inspired by Neri’s mom who sadly died from Alzheimer’s. We couldn’t make the math work as the real estate was too expensive and we believed it would be too difficult to recruit the best talent from universities to our effort.

Since then, the real estate became available at a 70% discount, universities became a much less attractive place to work due to politics outweighing meritocracy, protests that disrupt learning, the curse of antisemitism, and a decline in funding. Fortunately, during the same time, I made sufficient personal economic progress to make the AOI possible.

The advance of AI in the last few years will also enable us to greatly accelerate our mission. AI still has a lot to learn about human intelligence and the brain, and the AOI should be at the forefront of the interplay between the brain and AI.

Today, I am making a public filing disclosing a gift from Neri and me of ~$400 million or 10,000,000 shares of Pershing Square Inc. (PS) to the AOI. It is very early days for Pershing Square so these shares are intended to anchor the long-term work of the AOI as the shares compound over time while generating what we expect will be a growing stream of quarterly dividends to fund the Institute.

We will also be announcing an additional gift of similar and potentially greater size which won’t be in the form of Pershing Square stock to provide the AOI with the short- and intermediate-term runway necessary to enable it to achieve its goal of becoming a self-sustaining institute, which reinvests all of its revenues, royalties, and the economic rewards of company formation to advance the fields of brain health and human longevity.

Neri and I have chosen to anchor the funding of the AOI to maintain vision alignment and limit the need for the organization to focus on fundraising. We expect the AOI to be the best-resourced brain, rehab, recovery, and longevity institute in the world.

We are grateful to have been able to form a board which includes Dean Kamen (our generation’s Thomas Edison), George Yancopoulus (CEO of Regeneron), James Rothman (Nobel Laureate), Bernardo Sabatini (neuroscientist), Chris Kellner (neurosurgeon), Olivia Flatto (CEO Pershing Square Foundation), Neri Oxman, and myself.

We have recently identified a CEO who we expect to announce by October along with other key hires, and are beginning searches for a Chief Scientific Officer, a Chief AI/Technology Officer, a Chief Operating Officer, a Chief Financial Officer, and other key leadership roles.

If you find what we are building compelling and want to be part of the leadership team that creates and builds the AOI from a standing start, please send an email to: [email protected] with a short note as to why you believe you can help. Please include your best three ideas for the AOI along with a summary of your background and your most important accomplishments.

We promise strict confidentiality to those expressing interest in working with us.

We have learned from Lucy that the brain can recover from even catastrophic injury. There is so much more work to be done as the mind is a terrible thing to waste.

For details from my Pershing Square SEC filing see:

https://t.co/gZKafCw6Ia

[Zach W @Endurozw]

@jeffcomeau https://t.co/p4jReMNgqR - this is what I tell everyone uranium investing is like. Moments of joy mixed in with long periods of contemplating suicide lol.

[Zach W @Endurozw]

@PraiseKek Wow

[Zach W @Endurozw]

@OBlue84 @BigBLupo It’s the fact that it could have occurred lol

[Zach W @Endurozw]

@Sleeperaccord @VladTheInflator The ‘96 hurt. Not going to lie.

[Zach W @Endurozw]

@NucSafetyUCS Interesting that maritime is up there. I feel like I just recently started seeing more news flow on that space. Definitely agree on the rest 😂