Test

HFT/MM, statarb quant.

[Test @Entschul1999]

@ChrSzegedy Do you expect alien neuralese math that's incomprehensible to the best humans and well beyond the capabilities needed to solve Millenium problems, within the next 5-20 years?

[aether @bluewdrift]

I don't know who needs to hear this but someone recently told me "no amount of waiting will make you more brave, and no amount of worrying will make it more safe."
And honestly I think about this everyday.

[Ayzaa @Ayzacoder]

If you have a Gmail account, you need to read this.

Google's AI now scans your emails and attachments, bank statements, tax files, medical letters, all of it. It turned on by default, and there's a class-action lawsuit over how.

Here are 5 moves to shut it off, the switch is hidden in two places:

[aether @bluewdrift]

You should study what makes you defensive. The topic you avoid, the joke that irritates you, the question that feels insulting, the feedback you instantly reject. Defensiveness is usually the guard dog sitting in front of a weakness you have not trained yourself to face.

[Test @Entschul1999]

@SHL0MS You'll get adversely selected by terminally ill people

[Max Spero @max_spero_]

In my view we have a few different tiers of verifiability
1) programatically verifiable (near-free)
- games, coding, math, cybersecurity, chip design
2) real-world verifiable (cost-or time bounded)
- sciences: biology, chemistry, physics
-physical world: material science, energy, aerospace, robotics, agriculture, pharma
-forecasting: trading, weather
3) verifiable with human preference
- writing, design, comedy, charisma, persuasion

I expect most low-hanging fruit in (1) to be solved very quickly. Not sure how much longer before more solved math conjectures are simply uninteresting. I’m least certain about chip design being in this category, perhaps we hit a ceiling and require physics or materials breakthroughs to continue progress.

My guess is we will quickly run into the limits of how well we can simulate each domain in (2). The time-bounded nature of real world verification may be the reason we don’t hit fast takeoff. Sim2real remains an elusive problem to solve when real-world data is limited. Part of the reason I don’t expect to live multiple hundreds of years is simply that I expect pharmaceutical progress to be time-bounded by the physical world.

I expect the items in (3) to never really get solved to a superhuman degree, as success relies on an ever-shifting plane of cultural preference. People adapted to “good” AI writing and became annoyed at new stylistic tics that, in a vacuum, are not necessarily bad.

[Directionally Correct @directioncorrec]

It's very likely that citadel buying SA ended the cross market memory correlation trade.

I first detected Korean/Japanese being a leading indicator for next day SNDK price action in June after the correlation was negative all year.

The effect exacerbated in July. The signal throughout July had a 70% accuracy.

The root cause of this is now clear. Leopold got way too levered starting in June.

After hours had low liquidity so he couldn't dump and so there was a pricing edge in $SNDK equity movement.

Biggest lesson for me though is when you have found such an interesting regime shift to be aggressive and size up on it earlier.

But also as someone with no quant background and only codex I was able to find this signal and this makes me unbelievably bullish on AI x Trading and Hyperliquid.

The market is only going to become more inefficient from here as we get massive leverage, AI psychosis and transformative tech arriving.

Stay curious

[Test @Entschul1999]

@TheZvi He likely did not outperform on a risk adjusted basis which is all that matters to investors.

[Test @Entschul1999]

@sama > canonical

[Adam Grant @AdamMGrant]

Dealing with difficult people may be hazardous to your health.

Data: Each additional "hassler" in your network predicts 1.5% faster biological aging—and worse health a year later. Non-spouse family hasslers are the most problematic.

Some ties aren't worth the toll they take.

[Test @Entschul1999]

@posta_octavian @Dragonfly8110 It requires very targeted surveillance. Not mass surveillance.

[Naval @naval]

Don’t sell anything you wouldn’t want your children to buy.

[Sahil Bloom @SahilBloom]

The fastest way to improve your life is to sign up for a physical side quest. It could be a race, competition, event. Really anything. Maybe a marathon, Hyrox, long hike, or a weekend rafting trip. Something that scares you just a little bit. Just enough to spark action. Your day becomes more structured with the training for the side quest. You sleep deeper because you're tired from the training. You eat cleaner because your body wants the healthy fuel. You look better from the movement. You feel better from the momentum. Everything falls into alignment around the one small decision to sign up for that event. So, what's your side quest going to be?

[Brett Harrison @BrettHarrison]

HFT Market-Making Systems

I spent the first 13 years of my career designing algorithmic trading systems for large HFTs in options, futures, and ETFs (intl/US equities, commodities, fixed income, volatility). Here’s a summary of each component, note the role AI/ML actually plays.

Market data. A market-making system requires realtime orderbook deltas and trades, not just for the symbol that’s being quoted but also for every related instrument used in computing the theoretical fair value of the instrument. Every exchange has a different protocol specification and format, from JSON over websocket (slowest) to FIX (common) to fixed-width binary (fastest). The lowest latency systems will ingest market data on a different thread or process to avoid interfering with the core trading logic of the system.

Fair Value. Successful market making depends on a precise understanding of the theoretic fair value of an instrument, which is the indifference point between buying and selling the instrument modulo fees and other costs. The complexity spans from a several-parameter model based on one or two instruments to highly multivariate calculations across a basket of different symbols. This component is usually the firm’s most guarded intellectual property.

Order placement. Accurately predicting the price of an instrument is only half of the core logic of a trading system; deciding where and how to place orders is equally determinative of P&L. Maintaining balanced two-sided quotes, optimizing for queue position, minimizing traffic to comply with order rate limits, canceling to avoid adverse selection, and order sizing are all intricately determined by the strategy designer.

Exchange connectivity. Similar to the market data component, all trading systems must send orders and cancels using each exchange’s unique messaging protocol. JSON, FIX, and binary formats are all used, with the last most common among traditional exchanges where latency and throughput are optimized. The connectivity layer can be embedded within the order placement process or segregated as its own gateway process.

Offline training. Training is not part of realtime transformation of ticks to trades, but it is one of most important differentiators between trading firms. All parameters that define fair value calculation and order placement are set via offline compute tasks that are often guided by machine learning. A significant amount of the GPUs that large HFTs buy or rent are directed to model discovery and parameter optimization.

A handful of HFTs already use specialized GPUs for the linear algebra behind valuation, but the practice remains rare, confined to strategies where predictive power matters more than shaving the last nanoseconds off latency. As purpose-built inference silicon such as Google’s TPU and OpenAI’s Jalapeño becomes widely available, more HFTs will fold online ML and inference into their systems’ trading loops.

[🍂 @Lovandfear]

Please stop attacking the past versions of you.

They were doing their best at the time and they got you here. It's amazing how much progress you've made and how much you've grown but please don't think your past self lacked worth in any way.

[QC @QiaochuYuan]

i use "hell realm" loosely to refer to a state in which

- you are suffering enormously
- the suffering is sticky or persistent, refuses to dissipate, regenerates, feels correct, justified, necessary

much social media discourse is "viral hell realms" - content created from inside a hell realm implicitly or explicitly trying to pull its audience inside the same hell realm. to briefly gesture at examples one could speak of a misogynist hell realm, a misandrist hell realm, various political hell realms, a climate change hell realm, a trauma hell realm, a neurotic parenting hell realm, a singularity hell realm. imo it would not be wrong to call viral hell realms demons

emotional flavors associated with hell realms are more or less the obvious stereotypes: paranoia, hatred, rage, grievance, resentment, jealousy, envy, self-pity, despair, etc. you can apply a cartoon character test: if a cartoon character was suddenly filled with this, would it be an indication that they were possessed or corrupted by an evil spirit? would they suddenly sprout fangs, have black smoke curling off of them, etc

(it would be easy to misunderstand this as being about "negative" emotions. we have to carefully distinguish fear from paranoia, anger from hatred, sadness from grievance and self-pity, and so on)

antidotes to hell realms are the sappiest shit imaginable: gratitude. love. the brahmaviharas: metta (loving-kindness), karuna (compassion), mudita (empathetic joy), upekkha (equanimity). patience. forgiveness. mercy. grace. the light of heaven. the care bear stare. friendship. laughter. joy. beauty. mourning. prayer. you can again apply a cartoon character test: if a cartoon character was suddenly filled with this, would it be an indication that they were blessed by an angel? would they suddenly be filled with light, sprout angel wings, etc

choosing the antidotes to a hell realm from inside the hell realm is not easy (if it were easy they wouldn't be hell realms). the hell realm will try to convince you that the antidotes are poison: cringe, lame, uncool, unserious, naive, embarrassing, unsophisticated, frivolous, kitsch, banal, childish, girly, gay, woo, fake, selfish, morally corrupt, a betrayal. alternatively the hell realm might try to convince you that *you* are poison: you don't deserve this, it isn't for you, it's for other better people, you are a creature of darkness, loser, barely even human. i don't know that i have a better response to this than to say that you have to find a part of yourself that believes in straightforward, uncomplicated goodness, ordinary human goodness, and you have to crawl towards whatever goodness seems even remotely reachable to you from where you are even if you only have a single pinky available (so to speak) to inch yourself forward with, even if you can only manage to inch yourself forward once a day or once a week or once a month. finding a single thing to be grateful for, even if it's just that you aren't literally dead or suffering even worse than you currently are, is much better than nothing. finding a single person you're willing to pray for is much better than nothing. turning away from hell and towards the light is a habit you can build, no matter how slowly

more reading:

- the great divorce, lewis
- opening the heart of compassion, lowenthal and short

[Shouqiao Wang @Qiaoqiao2001]

Each prompt:
• restates the problem precisely,
• specifies what a complete proof or disproof must establish,
• lists weaker results that do not count,
• identifies problem-specific traps and edge cases,
• requires independent adversarial agents to challenge every candidate argument.

[Sahil Bloom @SahilBloom]

Underrated life advice: A good life is built by simply doing uncomfortable things sooner. The delayed conversation gets harder. The ignored problem gets bigger. The small repair gets more expensive. Peace is never found through avoidance. It’s found through direct early action.

[aether @bluewdrift]

Adopting a "do it right now" mentality has done wonders for my organization & discipline. Something on the floor? Grab it right now. Thinking about cooking later?Cook right now. Laundry finished? Put them up right now. Home from a trip?Unpack right then. It's the small things.

[Test @Entschul1999]

@str8tHustler @TristenGann @kjw_chiu Although there is a legitimate philosophical discussion to be had about implicit vs. explicit criteria and semantics.

[Test @Entschul1999]

@str8tHustler @TristenGann @kjw_chiu That's no more or less correct than Opus's solution, because efficiency wasn't part of the criteria.