Taiwan has the right to choose its own future — but China is determined to coerce the island before it can. @eyckfreymann explains.
🎧 Full episode with guest host @MarkCMontgomery on Foreign Podicy: https://t.co/3tjDlNgXnR
My argument in this piece is simple: Beijing is pressing foreign leaders to describe Taiwan in China’s language, while also keeping Taiwan’s own leaders from being heard on the world stage. The result is a dangerous distortion: Taiwan’s desire to preserve its democratic way of life is treated as a provocation, while China’s military and diplomatic coercion is treated as normal. But peace cannot be built on a narrative that blames the threatened for the threat.
Xi Jinping’s Taiwan trap, by Eyck Freymann (@eyckfreymann)
Xi’s main vector of coercion right now is political, not military.
The West has long envisaged a Taiwan crisis as a 2027 amphibious invasion. This risk remains real, as China acquires new military capabilities.
But an invasion would be challenging and fraught with danger, especially given the turmoil in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) leadership. Xi would rather take Taiwan for free, if he can get it.
Read more below ⬇️
https://t.co/brQm8BHI2h
Just finished reading @eyckfreymann's excellent book, Defending Taiwan. Only two sittings required for this informative, clear, and straightforward book on a tough problem. Much to mull over and this tees up all of the issues. You should read it.
https://t.co/6lDF9AJips
My latest in Lawfare:
The United States and its allies need a new toolkit to respond consistently and proportionately to China’s gray-zone coercion, deterring further escalation by signaling resolve and restraint.
Here are five specific ideas.
1. Develop a joint legal framework for responding to a quarantine. This should include pre-agreed positions on when China’s actions cross the threshold from “customs enforcement” to “coercion” under the TRA, under international law, and under each ally’s domestic legal authorities.
2. The United States, Taiwan, and regional allies need coordinated rules of engagement for gray-zone encounters.
3. Build a coordinated strategy to contest China's revisionism on UN Resolution 2758.
4. Design contingency plans for protective legal countermeasures if China starts targeting individuals or companies with lawfare. These must be flexible.
5. All of this planning needs to happen through a standing institutional mechanism.
Read the whole thing here:
https://t.co/6PvDnEXI7h
NEW ODD LOTS:
Taiwan is the world's most perilous chokepoint
@tracyalloway and I talk to @eyckfreymann, author of the new book 'Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, about the high stakes and high risk if China moves on Taiwan https://t.co/5S6G1XXqU1
In the phone call today between Rubio and Wang Yi, Wang explicitly linked US policy toward Taiwan with potential US-China cooperation.
“The Taiwan question concerns China’s core interests and is the biggest risk point in China-U.S. relations. The U.S. side should honor its commitments, make the right choice, open up new space for China-U.S. cooperation, and make due efforts for world peace.”
In Taiwan, the United States “needs to modernize the way it communicates its ambiguous position, warning China that gray-zone coercion in one domain may trigger proportionate U.S. responses in others,” argues @eyckfreymann.
https://t.co/hKKJPWgni8
Beijing’s use of legal instruments as tools of coercion is the leading edge of China’s pressure campaign against Taiwan. @eyckfreymann explains what China’s lawfare campaign has entailed thus far and why the U.S. and its allies need to coordinate a plan for how to respond.
My latest in Foreign Affairs:
"The United States must deter a crisis over Taiwan, not just a war. It must demonstrate to China it is prepared to handle the political and economic shock that would accompany a severe crisis, that it could cushion the immediate blow to its economy and those of its allies, and that, if necessary, it could trigger a phased but inexorable partial decoupling from China.
"The United States must start building these plans with allies today. Otherwise, if a crisis comes, it may rush to the brink, panic, and back down—sacrificing Taiwan while shredding the credibility of its alliances across the globe."
https://t.co/5Hr6eErWij
Now Live: "You’re Not Deterring a Country… You’re Deterring a Man" – Eyck Freymann, Author of "Defending Taiwan" 🎙️
Today on #COBT we had the pleasure of hosting Eyck Freymann, Hoover Fellow at Stanford University and author of Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, published April 15 (linked here: https://t.co/4tUWjHEpU1). His research focuses on strategies to preserve peace and protect U.S. interests and values in an era of systemic competition with China. He holds four degrees in history and China Studies form Oxford, Cambridge, and Harvard. In "Defending Taiwan," Eyck outlines an integrated strategy to deter war with China and preserve an honorable peace. We appreciated the opportunity to explore the book’s key themes and hear Eyck’s perspective on a highly intricate geopolitical environment.
@eyckfreymann@Stanford@HooverInst@SuperSpiked@ArjunNMurti
"Taiwan is inseparable from all of these other things that Beijing is trying to do to revise the regional and global order to be more favorable to China."
On the latest Pekingology episode, @HooverInst’s @EyckFreymann joins @Henrietta_Ivy to analyze Beijing’s real goals in the Taiwan Strait and how the island fits into the Party’s domestic and international ambitions.
Listen here: https://t.co/drhLAcoi61
🎧 NEW PODCAST EPISODE 🎧
@eyckfreymann joins @ColinKahl on #WorldClassPodcast to share his plan for how America's military, economy, technological leadership, and diplomacy can be used to prevent a conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan. https://t.co/UIDBP2p8Nu
The US must have "respect and empathy for people on Taiwan."
Stanford Hoover Institution fellow @eyckfreymann discusses the evolving dynamics of Taiwan-US relations in an interview with TaiwanPlus.
“If deciding to have the war [to defend Taiwan] would mean economic mutually assured destruction, maybe we’re actually deterring ourselves.”
@PaddyStephens5 interviews @eyckfreymann on defending Taiwan.
Read more: https://t.co/tazl9qYpav
NEW: "I think Taiwan’s fate is more likely to be decided through a crisis than a war. So our strategy should be to deter the crisis, not just deter the war, and also prepare for both." @eyckfreymann@HooverInst on Taiwan and US-China relations: https://t.co/y6o2mXkPNX
Hoover's @eyckfreymann, author of the upcoming "Defending Taiwan," says US inability to reopen the Strait of Hormuz may send mixed signals to Beijing on how Washington would handle a Chinese blockade of Taiwan.
More via @tdylon_jones@politico: https://t.co/t2s2igiu7E
Most Taiwan analyses focuses on invasion or blockade scenarios. But the quarantine - which is arguably more likely and far less studied - needs greater attention.
Below, a link to my conversation on a PRC quarantine of Taiwan with @DW's Richard Walker.
I am honored that Andrew Nathan reviewed my book for @chinabksreview! "Contested Taiwan" is featured in great company with fellow Taiwan books by @JMichaelCole1 and @eyckfreymann!
https://t.co/oELrr27HxV