Ken Bauso, CFA, CFP

"If you think you understand complex adaptive systems, then you don't understand complex adaptive systems." - Richard Feynman (probably)

Not investment advice.

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

Since the Iran war began, there has been a 100 bp swing in Dec 27 SOFR implied rates - from 75 bps of cuts to 25 bps of hikes.

My guess is that we will see at least half of this unwind.

For 2 yrs, it has been a good bet to fade the rate hike calls. This regime is still intact.

[Jack Farley @JackFarley96]

The war is over so sulfur prices should be down, right?

Right?

(Up 12%)

[Ken Bauso, CFA, CFP @FibonacciCFA]

@leadlagreport JPY

[Ken Bauso, CFA, CFP @FibonacciCFA]

@DougKass 100%

[Art Berman @aeberman12]

If reporting by @ncitayim is true, the story isn't the Hormuz fees

It's that the U.S. may have accepted Iran & Oman as the future administrators of maritime services in Hormuz.

A 60-day free pass today.

A toll booth on the world's most important oil chokepoint tomorrow.

#Oil #Hormuz #Iran #EnergySecurity #Geopolitics #OPEC #Shipping #MiddleEast

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

The Iranian Mehr news agency just published the points of the agreed MoU - anyone who can read won’t take long to seeing they are exactly the same ones of last week and the very same Trump called “fake news”

Feel free to check yourself

[Art Berman @aeberman12]

My neutral assessment of the Iran MOU:

🟢 50–70% chance of a temporary "peacefire"

🟠 15–30% chance of restoring pre-war Hormuz navigation & resolving the nuclear dispute

🔴 <10% chance of Iran becoming a cooperative regional partner

Most likely outcome: another temporary arrangement that postpones the real disagreements

#Iran #Hormuz #Oil #Geopolitics #MiddleEast #EnergySecurity #Diplomacy #MOU #Brent #Realpolitik

[David Bateman @davidbateman]

It costs 20% more to make a quarter than a $100 bill. Quite a racket this monetary system

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*IRAN SAYS NO DEAL WILL BE SIGNED BY TRUMP DEADLINE: FARS

[Monolith Investments @variance_swap]

@GavMcCracken @meloathesx I think Iranians keep leading Trump to believe they are close to a deal, and then rug pulling because they know Trump is desperate and will fall for it. It’s their way of embarrassing him

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman: The memorandum of understanding is not a final agreement with Washington, but rather an understanding that raises the key points of contention and affirms the end of the war.

[Kuppy @hkuppy]

On $SPCX, are you guys using Earth years (365 days) or Martian years (687 days) for your discount rate when valuing the 3rd datacenter on Mars…?? My valuation model is off by a few significant figures and I cannot figure out why…

[Ken Bauso, CFA, CFP @FibonacciCFA]

@Nostre_damus The likelihood that we have a smooth process from pre-MOU (where we are now), to a multi-step agreeement is low, imo.

[Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter]

The 20 largest U.S. IPOs since 2006 averaged a 61.8% max drawdown in year one

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

US ENERGY EXECUTIVES WARNED THE WHITE HOUSE THAT OIL RESERVES BEING USED TO HELP CONTAIN THE IMPACT OF THE IRAN CONFLICT ON ENERGY PRICES ARE RUNNING DANGEROUSLY LOW, ACCORDING TO CNN.

[esk @_esk_kse_]

Can someone explain why they're buying spacex, a company which makes no money and has a tier 2 LLM, at 1.7 trillion, instead of buying Google, which is a top 3 lab and makes 400 billion dollars a year, at 4 trillion?
The maff aint maffing.

[Meb Faber @MebFaber]

All my US value peeps looking at their friends outside the US...

via @SchrodersUS

[Rudy Havenstein, Senior Markets Commentator. @RudyHavenstein]

Here's the purchasing power of your U.S. dollars, using the Fed's (understated) model. This chart is semi-log.

[Gold Telegraph ⚡ @GoldTelegraph_]

BREAKING NEWS

SINGAPORE BANK DBS TO OFFER TOKENIZED GOLD TO RETAIL CUSTOMERS

Starting to add up…

[Nobody Special @JG_Nuke]

The government is considering buying an equity stake in Ask Jeeves, Pets dot com, and Excite. We’re all gonna be rich.