Code & Coin

Value investor

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

I wrote an op-ed for today's WSJ:
The most popular policy response to future AI disruption is job training. Call it the Dolly Parton of social policy. Everyone likes it.
But there's one problem: There are scores of job-training programs today but few work.
https://t.co/nhDyHk0ovC

[Wesley Chambers @investwithwes1]

@ReturnsJourney Li Lu said it himself

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

3 updates on our energy work at @Arnold_Ventures.
We recently released the US Energy Data Platform that has been receiving great reviews. It takes data that is often fragmented, technically dense and difficult to interpret and makes it more accessible.
https://t.co/KN8k02Q85H
1/3

[Kenneth Roth @KenRoth]

Merely "pacing" A.I. development isn't enough. We need nonnegotiable safety standards that are met regardless of the speed of new A.I. systems. Would we accept slower development of airplanes as a substitute for mandatory safety standards for all aircraft? https://t.co/oruiceViXx

[JAMES WEBB @jameswebb_nasa]

O aluno: “professor, mas pra que preciso estudar Física mesmo? Vai servir de alguma coisa na minha vida?

A vaca: 👇

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Let's all take a moment to understand how self-serving it is for OpenAI, Anthropic and other execs of big hyperscalers to talk of slowing things down.
1. LLMs are not AI and won't be AGI. There is nothing AI to slow down.
2. Competition is coming up fast, slowing benefits incumbents.
3. IPOs need hype & puffery; "we are so awesome it could become dangerous" is hype & puffery
4. Cover for real uncontrollable slowing growth as IPOs look to be pushed out

[Code & Coin @Finmake_over]

If you optimize AGI to make humanitiy the best what the whole world could be, it would 100% destroy us!and then i would start again, because this is a best optimisation model

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

"In both math and reading, 15-year-olds today are testing at levels of 14-year-olds a decade ago."
via @TheEconomist

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

re: private equity × youth sports

PE is a good thing. It's made business more competitive and efficient, enriching the economy and Americans. That said, profit-maximization isn't the right objective in every sector. Think health care delivery. Higher-ed. And youth sports.

Youth sports clubs, tournament organizers, and local venues used to be mission driven. Most were founded and run by enterprising parents who wanted what was best for their kids, the club, and the broader ecosystem.
Sustainability via breakeven or a slight profit was the goal.

Over time, the successful of these stumbled into market power and brand value. They started to have pricing power. They didn't need to raise prices for sustainability and many didn't, even though they could.

Private equity saw an opportunity to acquire assets that were still largely being run for community benefit. As a result, the clubs, tournaments, and venues switched from being mission-driven to profit-maximizing.

The transfer of ownership from a parent to a fund changes the optimization function. Maximizing profits meant squeezing more money out of fewer participants, often counter to the original goals of the founder. Not everything in American life should be optimized around profits.

The downside is that fewer kids participate, especially those from lower-income or single-parent families. For those who remain, the escalating cost and time commitment creates a worse experience for many.

But once your kid is on the competitive treadmill, it’s hard to get off. Private equity understands that dynamic. It’s why they invested.

[Aria Radnia 🇮🇷 @ariaradnia]

Whoever made this video is a comedic genius

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

The last can private equity will kick down the road

"Private equity (PE) firms have acquired large life insurers and loaded their balance sheets with private credit assets that are opaque and difficult for regulators to value...when a life insurer becomes insolvent, state-based guaranty funds protect insurance policyholders by "assessing" surviving insurers to cover the shortfall. In most states, such outlays are fully creditable against state premium taxes over time..PE-owned life insurers reflect a structural transformation in which an insurer supports a broader asset-management business that is designed to extract value upfront and impose losses on others. PE firms exploit this regulatory regime by pairing life insurers with private credit to capture value from both sides" #privateequity #privatecredit #insurance
https://t.co/MSwkuVeYBN

[Code & Coin @Finmake_over]

@johnarnold I guess never.

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

When are individuals going to learn to stop buying the hot new IPO at a big premium on the first day of trading.

[Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ @burrytracker]

Breaking: Stripe and Advent International made a joint takeover bid for PayPal

Meanwhile, Burry is not impressed by the bid and said "Nope, I am not selling PayPal"

Michael Burry estimates PayPal's intrinsic value at between $75 and $115 per share

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

Babies hit the edge of a glass cliff and freeze.

No training needed. The terror of the drop is wired in. Depth perception isn’t learned... it’s installed at launch.

Nature doesn’t negotiate with gravity.

Writer: Oliver

[Sonali Basak @sonalibasak]

This is a must read.

via @EricBalchunas

[DEGEN NEWS @DegenerateNews]

NEW: TRUMP SAYS “COUPLE OF GUYS WHO WENT SHORT, THOSE POOR BASTARDS, I MEAN, THEY ARE IN BIG TROUBLE, THEY'RE BEING WIPED OUT”

“I NEVER LIKED SHORT GUYS”

[Sahil Bloom @SahilBloom]

WARNING: Longer post (but worth reading or bookmarking for later).

Your life has seasons.

Each one is unique. Characterized by its own distinct desires, struggles, opportunities, and identity.

But one reflection I've had recently is just how easy it is to completely disassociate with the present season.

To give all your time and energy toward a longing for some nostalgic memory of a prior season or an anticipation for some beautiful state of a future season.

You look back at the past and all you see is sunshine. Because it all worked out. You forget (or glaze over) the struggle you endured. You're here today. You made it. You're alive. You're doing fine.

You look forward at the future and dream on what could be. You'll have so much more. More freedom. More purpose. More health. More deep connection. More everything.

The past is beautiful and the future feels limitless. So, logically, you slowly start to treat everything about the present as the bridge. A dash connecting your past and your future. A gap to be crossed as quickly as possible.

Everything you do today is in anticipation of some eventual end state.

I'm doing this now, so that I can have that later.

Unfortunately, the danger of that dissociation with the present is significant. You may spend your entire life living for a future that has a decidedly mirage-like property. You inch closer, but when it's right in front of you, it disappears and reappears on the horizon.

You may spend your entire life skipping through the present, deferring your presence, your joy, and your very humanity to a future that never comes.

In a classic French fable, a young boy is gifted with a magic ball of golden thread. He's told that if he simply pulls on the thread, time will leap forward. The catch, of course, is that once it's pulled, it can never be put back.

The young boy takes advantage of the newfound powers. Each time he's faced with a boring day at school, a frustrating set of chores, or a scolding from his parents, he pulls the thread, skipping through to the good parts.

As an adult, he continues, leaping through mundane struggles in his marriage, the friction of having a newborn, and the boredom at work. He finds himself pulling on the thread more and more, avoiding even the most minor inconveniences of his life.

But when he wakes up one day and sees an old man looking back at him in the mirror, he's filled with regret. He realizes in that moment that as he chose to skip through the boredom, struggles, and friction, so too did he miss the real texture of being alive.

How often do we all do the same? How easily do we default into this disassociation? Disconnecting from the present in anticipation of some future.

A mentor recently asked me this:

"Where are you going and why are you in such a rush?"

It hit me hard.

And to be honest, I haven't stopped replaying those words since he said them.

Why are you in such a rush?

The world wants you to rush into everything. Rushed decisions. Rushed conversations. Rushed relationships. Rushed timelines.

In doing so, you slowly relinquish your agency. You give up your claim on your own life. Surrender authorship to a pen that was never even yours.

In a world that wants you to rush, the ultimate act of rebellion is presence.

Be in the season you're in. Don't romanticize the past, don't fantasize the future. Be here. Be now. Be in this. All of its texture, depth, and struggle. All of its joy, tension, and pain. Sit with the uncertainty. Become friends with it. Fall in love with it.

Because every single thing you do today is something your younger self dreamed of and something your older self will wish they could go back and do.

The good old days are happening, right now.

And the next time you find yourself skipping through the present, remember these words:

Where are you going and why are you in such a rush?

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

Comedians always end up being the ones telling the uncomfortable truth:

🎯"AI is going to end up making mediocre people dumber"

🎯"AI can be the fuel, but fuel is useless if you cannot kindle the fire [..] learning the fundamentals still matter"

Well said @ronnychieng 👏

[Code & Coin @Finmake_over]

OpenAI is literally the biggest cash incinerator.