First Class Duck

an opinionated and jaded traveler

[First Class Duck @FirstClassDuck]

@chait76 @antoniogm Honestly, just work hard, save your money, support your friends and family, be a friendly and compassionate person, and avoid being bitter. Just avoid chasing women for sex, and you’ll live a happy and healthy life. Just keep some platonic friends for brownies. :-)

[First Class Duck @FirstClassDuck]

I'm going to need proof on the ownership of a highly profitable architecture firm. The cursory searches so far seem to indicate a small company in the Bronx, so again, it's not screaming rich girl to me.

As somebody who lost his dad in his twenties, I'm hesitant to assume that the money tree stays alive after the parent passes on. :-/

*She took private flying lessons and vacationed on private islands with multimillionaires in her 'bartending' (lol!) days*

It's weird, but I'm more willing to assume that (white) significant others paid for those things.

[First Class Duck @FirstClassDuck]

@nobodyknows2322 @AOC *spoiled little rich girl*

Maybe it's me, but I can't see her as the spoiled little rich girl. AOC in a world where her parents had more life insurance, or her dad lives is probably a different person on a different path, but I can't call her a rich girl.

[First Class Duck @FirstClassDuck]

@AZinCLE People long for the small township government of New Jersey but with the liberties of the unaccountable private sector running the show.

[mariana Z @mariana057]

Due to the high cost of energy, the light at the end of the tunnel has been switched off.

[Philipp Sandmann @philsandmann]

The AfD Party in Germany is the most anti-German party that exists. They are not patriots, they are traitors.

[Nomadic Warriors for Pritzker⚔️ @Nomads4Pritzker]

So, I've worked in the beef industry. I have a fairly detailed knowledge of beef markets, the supply chain, parasites and parasiticides, etc. Suffice it to say, this is a nightmare scenario, but one we've known was coming since at least 2022.

New World Screwworm was eradicated from North and Central America in the mid-90's. The US gov't (APHIS) funded a program of screwworm drops, where they bred sterile males so that extant populations couldn't reproduce and move northwards. But in 2022 NWS jumped the Darien gap and started moving northwards once again. It's most likely that they came undetected on livestock brought alongside migrants fleeing political instability in South and Central America. Elon Musk/DOGE, of course, cut several monitoring programs that would have detected this exact scenario. The screwworm drops are still funded, but the monitoring programs are what have been cut - a stupid move if there ever was one.

A serious Central/South America policy would have worked hand-in-hand with CA/SA governments to help contain this, but we've never had a serious policy towards South America, not during the Biden years, and especially not under Trump. The USDA broke ground on a sterile screwworm facility in Texas... last month. I worry it's too little, too late.

Screwworm is so dangerous because, unlike other fly larvae, they lay eggs and feed on living flesh. So something like a small scratch (or even bug bite) can quickly becomes infested, and the larvae will burrow into the flesh, growing the wound and attracting more screwworm. They don't only parasitize cattle, but will also feed on wildlife, domestic pets, even humans. Since they have detected screwworms in domesticated cattle right now, it's likely that there is a wild reservoir as well. We can quarantine herds and pets, but we can't quarantine deer and armadillos. They will move, and so will the NWS.

Under normal circumstances, cattle are moved around - a lot. Calves will be sent to stockers through their adolescence, then shipped to feedlots for finishing. A lot of calving operations (like 70%) are small, and small-time producers don't always catch parasite infestations. Cattle moved in-state don't require a certificate of veterinary inspection, so it's easy for an infested animal to be moved without being noticed. Animals crossing state lines do need a CVI, but Texas has such an enormous cattle population (something like 13 million head) that as goes Texas, so goes the nation.

Fortunately, we have a lot of drugs that treat NWS. The FDA has issued several emergency use authorizations in the last year or so. But every input raises the price of beef, and treatment only makes a difference if producers catch an infestation early. If an infestation spreads unnoticed on a large feedlot, it can hit hard, both in terms of cattle that have to be killed, and treatments that then have to be deployed. Producers will spend days at a time running cattle through the chute, inspecting them and applying parasiticides. It costs a lot of money, which is then passed on to the consumer.

What does that mean for you? Beef is a commodity, and just because there's no NWS up here in Illinois doesn't mean that prices won't skyrocket - and they will skyrocket. US herd size is already at record lows, and this will result in culls. Consumer prices also run 18-24 months behind, which means that shocks to the supply chain now are still going to be felt by consumers in 2028.

It's hard to say if our government will be able to muster an effective response - though I don't trust our current administration, which can't even throw a 250th anniversary party, to be able to deal with an ecological issue of this magnitude. It doesn't help that our current USDA secretary is a lawyer and think-tank creature. I don't much trust the state government of Texas either. The industry has also taken the workforce of large animal veterinarians for granted - a monopoly/market power issue that I just can't get in to here.

For me, it comes back to our federal government having an incoherent policy on Central and South America. We knew what was coming, we know what's going to happen, but we cut the program meant to prevent this scenario. Instead of taking those countries seriously as partners, the government has been stupid and domineering.

Here's the kicker: this is what the industry voted for. They might scream, they might get bailed out, but all that means is that you, the consumer, are going to be paying more for beef, plus whatever bailout gets shoveled their way. Until the industry accepts that they are part of a larger system; that they cannot eternally privatize the gains and publicize the losses of beef production; that they need to consider sustainability and stewardship in the management of their operations, this is only going to keep happening. Eventually, they may find that there is very little goodwill for them among the public, and people will decide that a Brazilian ribeye tastes just as good as one from Texas.

[First Class Duck @FirstClassDuck]

@agraybee They would argue that the private sector should solve the problem, the worm wouldn't have come if it wasn't for illegal immigration, and deportations solve everything.

[First Class Duck @FirstClassDuck]

@jayhup @MCCCANM It’s a discount to the passengers in some cases, but on the labor side, it’s definitely not…

I get the strange feeling that you’d need regional wages and potentially at Canadian rates for a real LCC to work in the US…

[First Class Duck @FirstClassDuck]

@jayhup @MCCCANM My joke about Spirit being Discount Delta instead of American RyanAir might have had some truth to it...

[First Class Duck @FirstClassDuck]

For sampling purposes, my older brother is in his 50s and went to Catholic schools in the 1970s and 1980s were nuns were commonplace as teachers.

By my time in the 1990s, lay teachers dominated, but (older) nuns were still principals. Now, lay teachers *and* principals dominate with many schools run off the books from their parishes.

[First Class Duck @FirstClassDuck]

@jayhup @MCCCANM FWIW, which situation paid more, regional jet flying or Spirit and Frontier?

[First Class Duck @FirstClassDuck]

@TOWGnr @MCCCANM FWIW, none of the Euro LCCs use regional jets.

It's basically point to point flying with A320s/B737s with lower costs from lower priced labour and airports willing to throw money at them, and fees like crazy.

[First Class Duck @FirstClassDuck]

@MCCCANM I would have figured that the waiting list would have made slightly used planes more valuable…

[Leah Libresco Sargeant @LeahLibresco]

This is a huge, devastating loss

[First Class Duck @FirstClassDuck]

@avrilbradley23 Maybe it’s me, but it’s the best looking state highway shield in the country.

Everything else CalTrans does is meh…

[First Class Duck @FirstClassDuck]

@oneearopened @motivatedjoy I suspect the local African American and Caribbean population isn’t going to have warm fuzzy feelings about Jews… :-/

[First Class Duck @FirstClassDuck]

@nobodyknows2322 The dream is fueled by carbon consumption! It’s morally wrong, and won’t be corrected until we live like Europeans…all in the Northeast and maybe the Midwest and Pacific Northwest.

[First Class Duck @FirstClassDuck]

@constans As my BFF notes, they're spread out in the subway system. It's not uncommon to have a dozen or so people, especially in the colder months on the train at night sleeping until they're told to leave by an employee or NYPD at a terminal.

[First Class Duck @FirstClassDuck]

@motivatedjoy Somewhere internally, they justify it as "we can harass Jews into doing something about Israel", but in reality, it has become "we can harass Jews" because it's now socially acceptable.