FredD

[FredD @FredD40959949]

@sdmoores @benchmarkmin Not a lot. Consider market size; vehicles alone, (important to include trucks - most forecasts forget), ~7-10 TWh/year ongoing. Utility storage will require ~700-1,000 TWh to store 10 hours of wind/solar generation overnight to electrify heat, industry. Just getting started.

[FredD @FredD40959949]

@jimfarley98 Love it! Please bring it to the US!!

[FredD @FredD40959949]

@kylascan @maiamindel Actions in past week, while essential to stabilize banking system, essentially increase money supply again, thereby prolonging inflation. Another fact: history shows that inflation is very corrosive to economies and societies. Lower inflation is essential for healthy economy.

[FredD @FredD40959949]

@kylascan @maiamindel Yes. Fact: Money supply growth = inflation. Works every time, in every country - The data shows a tight correlation. Money supply contraction = reduced inflation. Unfortunately, banking system loses stability when money supply contracts. Fed is walking a tightrope now.

[FredD @FredD40959949]

@kylascan Pow Pow!

[FredD @FredD40959949]

@jamesdouma Good stuff. Elon had referred to "walking the 9s" in safety rate of improvement. Implying exponential improvement rate and implying orders of magnitude better safety than status quo. Today, yes, safer than human alone (human still must supervise). Improvement linear so far.

[FredD @FredD40959949]

@hmeisler Like cup-and-handle, but different

[FredD @FredD40959949]

@paulkrugman Banking sector aside, how extensive is the damage to all the successful medium-sized businesses who have now lost all of their working capital? SVB had a huge number of businesses who relied on their services; do these firms go out of business now?

[jimmah @jamesdouma]

At today’s prices $30 billion would get you 20 GW of solar and 10,000 Tesla megapack 2 XL.

This would basically guarantee you baseload characteristics that are not inferior to the 2.2 GW nameplate nuke while also replacing a large number of peaking plants and average daily power generation that would be double that of the nuke. Additionally you could distribute this generation and storage to provide support to the grid increasing reliability and reducing transmission costs. Replacing some of the solar with wind would improve reliability further by decorrelating power generation. And of course operating costs would be tiny compared to the nuke since renewables have no fuel cost, very little maintenance, no disposal issues, and don’t require insurance from the federal government.

So renewables are basically at cost parity for worst case baseload requirements and vastly superior in every other respect. And renewables with storage continue to decline in cost very rapidly. It’s not much of a contest right now and in another five or 10 years it’ll be a complete no-brainer on all counts.

[FredD @FredD40959949]

@carlquintanilla @TheTranscript_ Carl (and Dave and Jim): how many folks are "inflation adjusting" their comparisons, whether it's VISA global spending vs 3 yr ago, CEOs talking revenues y/y, etc? A couple years compounded 8-10% inflation warrants adjustments....

[FredD @FredD40959949]

@LizAnnSonders Reversion to the long-term trend?

[FredD @FredD40959949]

@AukeHoekstra Furthermore, an EV's emissions aren't static. Assuming an EV is in service for 20 years, and electric generation profile shifts from coal/nGas to more wind, solar over next 20 years, it cleans up over lifetime. New gasoline or diesel vehicle remains static over next 20 yrs.

[FredD @FredD40959949]

@jamesdouma @ICannot_Enough @abledoc Yes. SpaceX and Tesla have extremely compelling and distinct competitive advantages on many fronts, thus allowing them to grow profitably. Doing a phone that simply achieved parity customer satisfaction with existing products - extremely difficult; might lose big $$.

[FredD @FredD40959949]

@kylascan I'd love to talk more about energy. Energy transition underway big time; biggest disruption in a century, since transition from wood/horse to fossil. This time just as big and as fast. People like to think driven by policy. Raw economics are driving. Grab yr popcorn.

[FredD @FredD40959949]

@rubin_allergy In what sense? Please elaborate... thx

[FredD @FredD40959949]

@phibetakitten indeed, Chonkers Chanos and so many others...

[FredD @FredD40959949]

@elonmusk @WSJ @WSJopinion @AllysiaFinley @kylascan Wow. Seems like the WSJ could learn a thing or two from Kyla and Moo, who have detailed the situation very clearly.

[FredD @FredD40959949]

@kylascan @PeterMallouk appears to be old 1997 millionaire next door profile. being a "millionaire" in 1997 was a lot rarer and more significant than today, IMHO. Math says folks who max out 401K contributions and/or resist home-equity refi for past 2,3,4 decades would have a high chance.

[FredD @FredD40959949]

@kylascan Brilliant! thank you! ❤️

[FredD @FredD40959949]

@ramez Maybe because electric cooking has a horrible reputation due to slow response time of electric resistance cook tops. Induction has cooking response time similar to gas - problem solved for all-electric homes.