Frud Bezhan فرود بيژن

Senior regional editor in the Central Newsroom at @RFERL | Leading coverage of Middle East, South Asia, and Central Asia | Email: [email protected]

[Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz]

Why is #Iran escalating in support of Hezbollah?

I wrote two days ago:

"The internal case being made to both supporters and critics of the Islamic Republic is that Iran paid an enormous price during the war – the Supreme Leader was killed, cities were struck, the economy was damaged – and emerged as a dominant regional power. That claim loses its political coherence the moment Hezbollah is systematically degraded under a ceasefire that Iran accepted and that its most important regional ally did not endorse."
https://t.co/UDyXWub5kF

[Alex Vatanka @AlexVatanka]

In the last 12 hours, Iranian media have begun amplifying Israeli claims that Azerbaijani territory was used in military operations against Iran

Watching closely for reactions from senior Iranian officials. During the war, there were reports that President Pezeshkian opposed strikes on Azerbaijan (if he in fact had such power, a big, huge if)

This all may amount to little. But relations between Iran and Azerbaijan touch some of Tehran's deepest security anxieties, making this a story worth watching

https://t.co/qHaEqxrtXV

[Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz]

"Israel secretly deployed elite military and intelligence units to #Azerbaijan during the war with #Iran as part of a network of covert sites across the Middle East to facilitate operations against Iran."
https://t.co/C1EgVfexBm

[Laura Rozen @lrozen]

Ode to long books

https://t.co/dZtityxTXN

[Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz]

In my latest on Iran Analytica I explain why #Iran increasingly sees the ceasefire as a trap, how it is trying to maintain its leverage vis-à-vis Trump, and what that means for the prospects of a deal
https://t.co/hk05iKsSkN

[Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty @RFERL]

Hidden in a smuggled KGB archive is an espionage mystery few have ever heard of.

Frederick Flott was a former CIA officer, a US diplomat, and Robert F. Kennedy's interpreter on a Soviet road trip.

But newly examined KGB archive files suggest Flott may have secretly passed classified information to Moscow during the Cold War. His family insists there's another explanation.

Was he a KGB spy or a double agent?

By @Mike_Eckel

[Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz]

Told @bbcpersian that there could be two explanations for why Donald Trump has reportedly not endorsed the text of the MOU with #Iran and has instead requested amendments:

On the one hand, issues such as the release of Iran’s frozen funds and the deferral of a decision on the fate of Iran’s highly enriched uranium could make him appear to be accepting a deal weaker than the “Obama deal.”As a result, he may be seeking additional concessions that would allow him to present the agreement as a victory and justify the costs of the war.

On the other hand, he may be attempting to buy time in order to alter realities on the ground in two key arenas: Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz. The expansion of Israeli operations in Lebanon, on the one hand, and recent exchanges of fire between the U.S. and Iran, on the other, may suggest that Trump is seeking to weaken two of Iran’s most important sources of leverage in order to strengthen his position at the negotiating table.

At the same time, Tehran also appears to be benefiting from the time provided by the ceasefire to rebuild its military capabilities and prepare for a possible resumption of hostilities. However, on the U.S. side, it is difficult to expect a significant increase in military capacity beyond what Washington has already deployed in the region.

At the moment, both sides still seem to prefer a diplomatic solution over a return to conflict. The main risk lies in the possibility of miscalculation. Any U.S. effort to open a southern route in the Strait of Hormuz, or a continued expansion of Israeli military operations in Lebanon, could eventually provoke a direct or indirect response from Tehran, potentially causing the situation to spiral out of control.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

One of the reasons oil prices didn't spike to $200 is because temporary supply buffers played a big role in plugging the shortfall in the global oil market. Those supply buffers are depleting fast. @econ_harris and I lay out a timeline in this blog post...
https://t.co/Uiu2ryYJGC

[Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz]

Eleven children have been killed or injured on average every 24 hours in #Lebanon ‌over the last week, the U.N.'s children's agency said on Friday, as Israel has expanded strikes across the country despite a ceasefire
https://t.co/LkgFRvhzwn

[Frud Bezhan فرود بيژن @FrudBezhan]

In Sign Of Deepening Ties, Russia And Afghan Taliban Sign Military Deal. https://t.co/MgNMPPOav2

[Financial Times @FT]

How China is dismantling Uyghur society

FT analysis suggests that the Chinese state’s campaign of oppression against Uyghurs and their culture and identity has entered a new phase.

Read the full visual investigation here: https://t.co/dEmxEoxxk9

[Arash Massoudi @ArashMassoudi]

Iran International is the most-watched Persian news channel in the world.

It's lost £410mn in five years, just had £650mn of debt quietly erased — and won't say who funds it. We found some answers.

w/ @cynthiao @DanielThomasLDN @EuanHealy

https://t.co/4qGc8ANqSy

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

Trump's Endgame With Iran

If President Trump is genuinely interested in ending the crisis, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and engaging Iran in serious negotiations over limits on its nuclear program, then even an imperfect agreement could achieve those objectives.

But if Trump believes he can extract significantly more concessions from Tehran through continued pressure, sanctions, military threats, and economic coercion, then prolonging the confrontation carries substantial risks. The events unfolding in the Gulf in recent days demonstrate how quickly escalation can take on a life of its own, potentially dragging both sides into a broader conflict neither originally intended.

The dilemma cannot be postponed indefinitely. More time is unlikely to fundamentally alter Iran's negotiating position. From Tehran's perspective, it has already reached the outer limits of what it is prepared to concede. Iranian leaders believe they have weathered the pressure campaign and now hold a stronger hand than Washington assumes. As a result, they are unlikely to surrender to additional demands simply because negotiations are prolonged.

Trump now faces a choice similar to that of a gambler in a casino. He can walk away with a deal that may be imperfect and politically unsatisfying but preserves his strategic assets. Or he can double down in search of a better outcome, accepting the possibility that future losses could be far greater than those already incurred.

What appears to trouble Trump most is the absence of a clear victory narrative. Yet the search for a more decisive image of success may itself increase the risks to both his presidency and American interests. There are many examples of leaders who continued escalating not because their position improved, but because they could not accept an ambiguous outcome.

The question now is whether Trump prioritizes a manageable settlement or continues searching for a victory that may prove increasingly elusive.

Decision time.

#iran

[Ali Hashem علي هاشم @Alihashem]

Our neighborhood in Tyre. Israeli warplanes destroyed several buildings, turning the beautiful streets where we grew up into a landscape of rubble, dust, and memories buried beneath the ruins.

[Christiane Amanpour @amanpour]

“Peace has to come, and will only come, when people are regarded with equality, when the core causes of these conflicts are addressed,” says longtime peace negotiator Oliver McTernan, who has just returned from the Middle East. “You can’t have peace without justice.”

[William Dalrymple @DalrympleWill]

"The chaotic, unique, beautiful Lebanon I knew has been reduced to rubble. When will it end?"
https://t.co/SGh77Ir0EE

[Raz Zimmt @RZimmt]

As both parties move into the final stretch toward formulating the MOU between Iran and the United States, they are becoming increasingly engaged in a battle over the narrative. Both sides have apparently been forced to make certain compromises and show some flexibility in their positions (not necessarily to the same extent), and both are therefore expected to face criticism from their respective political bases.

The publication on Iranian television of details from the draft MOU naturally focuses on issues that are seemingly more favorable from Iran’s perspective, such as lifting the naval blockade, the withdrawal of US forces, and the joint management of the Strait of Hormuz with Oman, while giving less attention to issues on which, according to several reports, certain compromises were made, including nuclear-related commitments (some of which may remain general and verbal) and the economic benefits Iran is expected to receive.
It may be assumed that the United States will likewise seek to emphasize the aspects that are more favorable from its own perspective.

The key question at this stage is whether the need to defend the emerging agreement before domestic audiences in both countries will affect only the way the agreement is presented, or whether it could lead both leaderships to harden their positions once again out of concern over possible criticism.

[Ali Vaez @AliVaez]

Told @thehill: The reason either side has walked away is that the alternative to a deal ranges from unpalatable to outright ugly. But if the talks break down, a return to hostilities will be inevitable - its costs and risks notwithstanding.
https://t.co/rjJ5UFRswO

[Ali Vaez @AliVaez]

The Hard Truth My Party Needs to Face https://t.co/xC2mr5slor

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Government re-activating internet, plus senior military commanders appearing together and in public for the first time in months.

Two data points suggesting regime is getting more confident the war is close to ending.