Gabriel Colominas

Fund Manager @ ジャパンディープバリューファンド | Long-Term Investor | Unlocking Value

[Gabriel Colominas @GabrielCoBi]

"If investing is entertaining, if you're having fun, you're probably not making any money. Good investing is boring."

— George Soros

[Gabriel Colominas @GabrielCoBi]

Los bancos americanos con tal de cobrar les da igual pasar vergüenza después.

[Exec Sum @exec_sum]

Jamie Dimon will personally pitch JPMorgan's high-net-worth clients on SpaceX's IPO

Dimon will host a 'live interactive discussion' today, simulcast from JPM's HQ, for over 2,500 clients across 90 locations and 26 states

He will be joined by JPM's asset and wealth management CEO Mary Callahan Erdoes and SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell and CFO Bret Johnsen

Bank of America is also hosting a similar client event for over 5,00 clients with co-president Jim De Mar

[Gabriel Colominas @GabrielCoBi]

@boromas @antonello Se lo come de golpe, la fuga de un lado a otro seria salvaje.

[Gabriel Colominas @GabrielCoBi]

Si la ultima ronda privada la has colocado a casi $1T, a cuanto pretendes hacer la IPO?

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Anthropic has picked Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to lead its upcoming IPO, per Bloomberg.

Anthropic was valued at $965 billion in its latest funding round, officially surpassing OpenAI’s valuation for the first time.

[Gabriel Colominas @GabrielCoBi]

This is so interesting.

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

Just finished listening to Sarah Friar, OpenAI CFO, on the Liquidity Summit. Worth giving a listen

My thoughts…

I legitimately cannot believe what it’s like to be on the finance teams at Anthropic and OpenAI right now

You are essentially trying to put a price on this arbitrary thing called tokens, and forecasting out future demand for the fastest growing technology in history

There is no precedent for this. You can’t just look at some historical comps to triangulate this the token input and output costs. It has never existed before.

Then you are responsible for going and presenting this model in front of VCs who are trying to gobble you up with cash.

The valuation resets are happening so fast you don’t even how to spend this cash so that it earns a good ROIC for these investors

Partners like NVIDIA, Google and everyone in between is lining up with offers for joint ventures and deals that are heavily structured

Lenders are sending you term sheets to finance your GPUs, and provide other creative solutions to your problems every single month, if not week

Having to evaluate through it and picking the right ones is a huge burden. Wrong partnerships have killed entire businesses before

You need to think about cost of chips, energy, labor, power generation, all while these things are moving around at paces unlike anything else

Cannot imagine how equally stressful and gratifying it is

If you are currently in this seat or know someone in it, would love to hear your thoughts

[Gabriel Colominas @GabrielCoBi]

Levantar $80bn y que sea una dilución del 1.7% de tu Equity.

[WSJ Tech @WSJTech]

Google parent Alphabet on Monday announced a plan to issue $80 billion in equity to finance enormous capital expenditures tied to the artificial intelligence race https://t.co/jACo6ztKNK

[Gabriel Colominas @GabrielCoBi]

@damiangamo Muy bien explicado, gracias

[Gabriel Colominas @GabrielCoBi]

The Estée Lauder Companies & Puig
End Discussions Regardinga
Potential Business Combination https://t.co/NSTHDIPPRc

[Gabriel Colominas @GabrielCoBi]

@vergesmarcos No piden más porqué es indecente.

[Gabriel Colominas @GabrielCoBi]

Tienen prisa.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Anthropic has confidentially filed an S-1 with the SEC for its proposed IPO.

[Gabriel Colominas @GabrielCoBi]

@MrtnzAlvrz Tampoco ha habido tiempo para ver si los depreciation schedules están bien hechos, pero no parece tan importante ahora mismo.

[Gabriel Colominas @GabrielCoBi]

Si todo es veraz, es carne de 'big short'.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨Michael Burry just said Elon Musk and Nvidia's deal is built on fake numbers.

Burry published a detailed breakdown calling the entire structure "Fugazi", his word for fake.

He is alleging that billions of dollars in Nvidia chips are being hidden off balance sheets, and that American retirees are unknowingly funding the whole thing.

Nvidia, the world's largest AI chip company sold $5.4 billion worth of its most advanced GPUs, the GB200, to a company called Valor.

Valor is not a real operating business. It is a special purpose vehicle, a shell company created specifically to hold these chips and nothing else. Nvidia also invested $1.9 billion of its own money directly into Valor on top of the sale.

Those 100,000+ chips are now physically inside xAI's data center. xAI is Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company, the one that builds Grok. xAI is using every single one of those chips right now to run its AI models.

But here is what Burry is flagging.

Neither Nvidia nor xAI owns those chips on paper. Valor, the shell company holds legal title. That means $5.4 billion in GPU assets do not show up on Nvidia's balance sheet as inventory.

They do not show up on xAI's balance sheet as assets. They are legally invisible to both companies.

Nvidia gets to book the $5.4 billion as a completed sale and record it as revenue. xAI gets full use of the chips without owning them. And the risk disappears into a shell company in the middle.

Now here is where American retirees enter the picture.

Valor needed $3.5 billion in debt to fund this structure. Apollo provided it. Apollo is one of the largest asset managers on earth with $1.03 trillion under management and $834 billion specifically in private credit.

Apollo raised the $3.5 billion, packaged it into debt securities, and sold those securities to Athene.

Athene is Apollo's own insurance company. It sells fixed and indexed annuities, retirement savings products, to ordinary Americans.

When a retiree buys an Athene annuity, they believe their money is sitting in safe, stable investments. That money is now inside a structure funding Elon Musk's AI data center.

The numbers inside Athene are most alarming.

Athene holds $74.2 billion in reserves. It has moved $217 billion in assets into a captive insurer based in Bermuda, meaning those assets sit outside normal US insurance regulation and oversight.

Of the entire portfolio, 34.7%, equal to $103 billion, is classified as Level 3 assets.

Level 3 is an accounting classification that means there is no observable market price for these assets. No outside party can independently verify what they are actually worth.

The leverage sitting on top of those unpriced assets is 16 times.

Burry's says:
Every step of this structure is technically legal and publicly disclosed. But the entire thing was deliberately engineered across 8 to 12 steps to move credit risk off balance sheets and away from any market pricing.

- Nvidia books the revenue.
- Apollo collects the fees.
- xAI gets the computing power.
- And retirees sitting at the bottom of a 16x leveraged Bermuda insurance structure, holding $103 billion in assets with no market price carry the risk without knowing it exists.

[Gabriel Colominas @GabrielCoBi]

Pronto serán 8 magníficos y dos impostores.

[Noah @antibearthesis]

The Magnificent 7 has an imposter.

[Gabriel Colominas @GabrielCoBi]

Una herramienta para organizar los guardados por temas y poder buscar en ellos, para cuando?

[Gabriel Colominas @GabrielCoBi]

Yes, I'm buying passive for the diversification and the strict rules of the indexes.

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO:

Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5.

This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations.

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates S&P 500 funds must absorb 19% of SpaceX's float within 6 months.

Russell 1000 and Nasdaq 100 funds will absorb 24%.

The rules built to protect passive investors:

1. S&P 500 has required 12 months of trading and 4 quarters of GAAP profitability since 2002. Both waived.

2. Nasdaq cut its inclusion window from 90 trading days to 15.

3. FTSE Russell cut its to 5.

All three benchmarks are now structured to buy SpaceX at IPO pricing.

[Gabriel Colominas @GabrielCoBi]

66% profit Margin?? C'mon...

[@levelsio @levelsio]

It's not just luxury hotels that are a scam, it's almost everything that's luxury that's a scam

Gf bought Rimowa suitcases, expensive and supposed to be better quality than regular ones, but of course they're much worse

They keep breaking, like all of them, cracks in the handles, cracks in the sides, it's just cheap plastic shit but it costs $1000 or more

Rimowa was bought by LVMH in 2016 which has an average profit margin of 66% and whose strategy is to increase prices by ~5x, decrease costs by ~5x and then create artificial scarcity (limited availability per shop) because people want what they can't get (not me though but many)

LVMH is kinda like the luxury version of private equity, it makes everything more expensive and worse and hard to get!

[Gabriel Colominas @GabrielCoBi]

@aleixsalvans No ho veig així, crec que és més un tema de bombolla/aprofitar per aixecar tots els diners que puguin per ser el "last man standing".

A nivell de marges/Capex encara no tinc clar que el retorn sobre el capital invertit pugui arribar a ser positiu si no pujen molt els preus.

[Gabriel Colominas @GabrielCoBi]

$65bn en una ronda. Más de lo levantado en todas las rondas de startups en España.

[Anthropic @AnthropicAI]

We've raised $65 billion in Series H funding at a $965 billion post-money valuation, led by @AltimeterCap, Dragoneer, @Greenoaks, and @sequoia.

This investment will help us advance our research and expand our capacity to meet growing demand for Claude.

[Gabriel Colominas @GabrielCoBi]

@CarlosMoralesG_ Con estilo más mainstream pero poco conocidas las Hydroponic, la última colaboración con Snoopy me encanta. https://t.co/Uwt6rcN3Dg

[Gabriel Colominas @GabrielCoBi]

@TheJerzWay Everything you share is very interesting and realistic, people don't understand that the only way of paying less taxes is moving to a country where effectively you pay less taxes.

Apart from using the country tax code to find small tax exemptions/advantages.