Geoff

Dad, Water Infrastructure, Finance, Surf, Macroeconomics, Gardening and Grub, Volcanoes

[Geoff @GeoffTalks]

@BowTiedPassport Nailed it. The fraud and bureaucracy are insane. Try the banks and all of their stuff. OMG. I think that’s why they are working towards digital ID

[Geoff @GeoffTalks]

@lorena_becerra Me encantaría tener un perro así, pero lamentablemente mi gobierno ha hecho casi imposible obtener una visa. ¡Algún día, cuando regrese a México!

[Geoff @GeoffTalks]

@zerohedge @Swingtrader Any thoughts on Crowdstrike? That must be hitting your bands

[Geoff @GeoffTalks]

@jonbrooks That’s what I was thinking. It’s like our Japan moment with 20 years of stagnation

[Geoff @GeoffTalks]

@MauiBoyMacro Bingo!!!

[Geoff @GeoffTalks]

@JakeNomada Literally one of the beach towns on mainland Mexico that I am glad to pass right by. Beaches are blah, kinda ugly, and it is in the transition zone from sub tropical so it is pretty ugly most of the year. Add in the security issues and it’s a hard pass…

[Geoff @GeoffTalks]

@MauiBoyMacro @thoughtfulmoney @adamtaggart @fleckcap What is causing 401k inflows to become stagnant?

[Geoff @GeoffTalks]

@MauiBoyMacro @hussmanjp Thanks for sharing Brah. I feel like I’ve just ducked dived 5 massive waves in a clean up set. I’ve been a bit bearish but nothing wealth destroying, but damn I want to!!!

[Bryan Johnson @bryan_johnson]

This is it.
Everything learned spending millions on longevity.

From: Your Immortal Unc and Auntie.
To: Our Immortal nieces and nephews.

0. Sleep is the world's most powerful drug.
1. Be in your bed for 8 hours
2. Same bedtime every night, any time before midnight
3. Don’t eat right before bed
4. Calm foods for dinner
5. No screens 1 hour before bed
6. Avoid added sugar (be aware it’s in everything)
7. Avoid all things in an American convenience store
8. Avoid fried foods
9. Shoes off at the door
10. Eat whole foods, particularly veggies fruits nuts legumes berries
11. Walk a little after meals or air squats
12. Get your heart rate high routinely
13. Lift heavy things
14. Stretch daily
15. Water pik, floss, brush, tongue scrape, morning and night
16. Make an effort to drink water
17. Get sunlight when you wake up (UV is low)
18. Protect skin in midday sun
19. Stand up straight
20. See at least one friend once a week
21. Avoid plastic where you can (in all things)
22. Circulate air in rooms
23. When stressed, breathe, learn to calm your body
24. Go to the dentist
25. Avoid sitting for long times
26. Protect your hearing, the world is too loud
27. Alcohol is bad for you
28. Finish coffee before noon
29. Avoid bright lights after sunset
30. If obese, look into a GLP
31. Sleep in a cold room
32. Texting while driving is dangerous
33. Turn off all notifications
34. Limit social media use
35. Don’t smoke anything
36. If you struggle to sleep, read a physical book before bed
37. 1 hour before bed have a calm wind down routine: bath, read, light walk, listen to music
38. The body is a clock and loves routine. Have a daily morning and evening schedule.
39. Avoid long distance travel where you can
40. Baby steps first: incorporate new things slowly
41. Do less… most things don’t work.

Bonus points if you get your blood checked.

Start here, it will change your life.

[Geoff @GeoffTalks]

@MarioNawfal See those all the time flying into Honolulu

[Aakash Gupta @aakashgupta]

The reason Costco spots recessions before economists is buried in who shops there.

The median Costco household earns above $125K. The US median is around $80K. The typical member is college-educated, owns a home, and has stock-based comp or 401(k) exposure that moves with the market. When THIS household trades beef for canned tuna, the upper-middle class is admitting their balance sheet just changed. These are the families whose discretionary spending IS the economy.

That signal is invisible to economists for structural reasons. BLS releases CPI on a 2-week lag. Jobs data hits the third Friday of the next month. PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, runs monthly. NBER does not formally declare a recession until 6 to 21 months after it started. The 2008 recession was officially dated in December 2008. It began in December 2007. The committee was a full year behind the actual economy.

A Costco category buyer sees the protein mix shift in POS data within 48 hours.

The protein hierarchy itself is a precise instrument. Beef costs the most per gram, has the shortest shelf life, and demands the most planning. Chicken is half the price, longer shelf life, more flexible. Canned tuna is one-tenth the cost, indefinite shelf life, zero prep. When a household walks down that ladder, they are pricing in a future income shock that has not yet shown up on a pay stub. The ribeye-to-tuna shift is a hedge against bad news the official data will confirm six months later.

Walmart sees the bottom 40% trade down first. Costco sees the next 40% trade down second. By the time Whole Foods sees it, NBER is two quarters away from making the recession official.

Costco hits the signal first because their members are the most exposed to wealth effects in the entire economy. Stock-based comp. Home equity sentiment. Executive bonus uncertainty. When the comp letter feels shaky, the chicken goes in the cart instead of the ribeye.

Galanti spent 40 years as CFO running the highest-resolution recession sensor in America. The Fed runs models. Costco runs registers.

[Geoff @GeoffTalks]

@jimmydean197 I live nearby. They are on small lots. Only 2 have sold. They are nearly double the average price of existing homes in the area.

[Geoff @GeoffTalks]

@leadlagreport No excuse. Been at this longer than you but Shaka brah!

[Geoff @GeoffTalks]

@carsales_guy @rwizz

[Geoff @GeoffTalks]

@carsales_guy @rwizz

[Geoff @GeoffTalks]

@carsales_guy @rwizz Marine Mammal Protection Act. Their primary food source population has moved higher and so has their population…that combined with drones allows us to see them more frequently.