The Buffett Indicator (Total US Market Value/GDP) is a ballpark measure of how expensive stocks are at any one point in history…
It’s now sitting at ~220%
Surpassing the Dot Com bubble.
“If the ratio approaches 200%, as it did in 1999, you are playing with fire.” - W. Buffett
I get a lot of messages asking for career advice.
This is my attempt to synthesize my responses into a series of short, valuable lessons.
22 pieces of career advice I wish I knew at 22...
The single most important rule: Be valuable.
Create value, receive value. If you want to make a lot of money, create value for everyone you come into contact with. Money earned is a direct byproduct of value created. Identify problems, create solutions, scale those solutions. If you aren't valuable, nothing else on this list matters. If you are valuable, the rest of the list is like gasoline on your already roaring fire.
Durable things take a long time to build. Flimsy things happen fast.
There are no shortcuts to building something real. The faster it comes, the faster it can fall apart. Remember that.
Be the person who can figure it out.
Early on, you'll be given a lot of tasks you have no idea how to complete. There's nothing more valuable than someone who can just figure it out. Do some work, ask key questions, get it done. People will fight over you.
There are no style points in life.
You don't get more points for making it look good. You win by getting to the truth. The layup counts just as much as the 360-degree windmill dunk—and it probably saves energy so that you can be on the court for the full game.
People want to do business with people they like.
So, being likable and nice to be around is a durable competitive advantage.
The best opportunities look like tiny cracks, not open doors.
Opportunities rarely feel obvious in the moment. Capitalizing on them requires one part awareness (to spot the tiny crack) and ten parts courage (to dive through it).
Inputs are great, but you're paid for your outputs.
Inputs and outputs may be dislocated in the short-term, but they should be connected in the long-term. If not, you probably need to adjust your inputs.
If you want extraordinary outputs, you need to be willing to contribute extraordinary inputs.
Life is filled with challenging, painful tradeoffs and sacrifices. There's no cheat code or hack to get around it. You need to be willing to endure seasons of unbalance to unlock a life of balance on the other side.
The ability to take feedback is a long-term competitive advantage.
Everyone says they want feedback, but most just mean they want positive feedback. If you can seek out constructive feedback and embrace it, you will always outmatch the person who runs from it.
Seek out rooms where you don't feel like you belong.
That feeling of uncertainty, fear, and discomfort is usually a sign of growth.
Always focus on doing.
You'll come across a lot of great talkers—people who seem to have built their careers on the back of sounding smart, using fancy words, and the like. While it may work out for a few, it's a bad risk-adjusted strategy. It's not talking about the thing, it's not brainstorming about the thing, it's not asking about the thing, it's not thinking about the thing. The only way to reliably get ahead is by doing the thing.
Potential is nothing without execution.
When you're young, everyone cares about your potential. You get accustomed to focusing on it. But as you get older, no one cares about your potential—just your delivery against it.
Everything matters.
Every single thing. You don't get to pick and choose when to show up, because the world will ignore your best and judge you for your worst. Top performers show up with energy and enthusiasm for the little things just as much as they do for the big things.
Learn to sell.
Sell yourself, your story, your product, your vision, your ideas. Don't be afraid of being told no. Use it to refine the message until you get to a yes.
Build a reputation for reliability.
My grandfather once told me: "You’ll achieve much more by being consistently reliable than by being occasionally extraordinary." I will never forget that. You can get pretty damn far by just being someone that people can count on to show up and do the work. Being reliable is entirely free but surprisingly rare.
If you want to accomplish anything significant, you have to work hard.
Nothing bad has ever come from working hard on things you care about. It may not lead to the outcome you expect, but it will lead to an outcome you deserve.
Don't follow your passion, follow your energy.
Passion can lie, but energy never does. When you have energy for something, you're prone to giving your deep attention to learn more about it. You open up to the world. You ask great questions and observe. Chasing your energy is how you unlock the gold in life.
Be selective in the games you choose to play.
There's an old African proverb that says, "The Lizard had the tree in mind when challenging the Dog to a fight." The most successful people I've met are hyper self-aware. They identify their unique edge, then play games that favor it (and avoid those that expose their weaknesses). Know your game and play it well.
Closed mouths don't get fed.
If you want something—and you’ve done the work to earn it—go ask for it. The old adage to sit back and wait for good things to happen is terrible advice. A little push goes a long way.
Do the "old fashioned" things well.
Look people in the eye, do what you say you'll do, be early, practice good posture, have a confident handshake, listen more than you speak. These things are all free and will never go out of style.
Side hustles are usually just distractions.
Having 5-10 income streams may sound nice, but it's quite rare that an income stream is truly passive. If it requires your mental energy (or creates headaches), it may just be a distraction pulling you away from the main thing that matters.
Your employer (probably) doesn't care about you.
Everyone's your best friend until it's time to make hard decisions. One of my dearest friends just got laid off after 15 years at a firm. The guy who gave him the news had hired him originally and been a groomsman at his wedding. Suddenly, he wouldn't reply to texts or pick up the phone. There's no loyalty. The sooner you accept that, the better off you'll be.
Your career is a long game. These 22 pieces of advice will help you play it well.
And always remember: Advice is great, but it's nothing without action.
I hope you take a few items from this list and act on them in the days and weeks ahead. Apply the ones that resonate, ignore the ones that don't.
Onward and upward...
It's been real, big-cap tech $XLK
Price action is telling us to run for the hills, while the narrative is these stocks are the only game in town
The summer selloff looks like initiation of a new downtrend
And it's happening where the ratio peaked during the dot-com bubble
This is hilarious.
- $1.74M worth of $GME next week calls were loaded at 11:42am on Friday.
- RoaringKitty tweets 18 minutes later.
- The calls were closed nearly immediately after the tweet went up.
How to profit nearly $600K in minutes.
The longest yield curve inversion in history has ended w/ the 10-yr Treasury yield (3.77%) now 1 bps above the 2-Yr yield (3.76%). Historically, the flip back to positive after a long inversion has occurred near the start of recessions.
Chart of the Day: https://t.co/kyQ66e2WAn
Time it takes these companies to generate $1 million in revenue:
Amazon: 46 seconds
Apple: 1 min, 5 sec
Alphabet: 1 min, 30 sec
Samsung: 2 min, 25 sec
Microsoft: 3 min
Meta: 4 min
Tesla: 6 min
Nvidia: 7 min
IBM: 8 min
Uber: 14 min
Salesforce: 15 min
Adobe: 26 min
Airbnb: 1 hr
1/ Navigating Negative Gamma: 🧵
Dealers remain excessively short-gamma with around $1.7 billion to hedge per index point. This level puts us back near the max amount of negative Gamma we've seen this year and close to record levels since 2018.
Okay let's talk about $SPY again 👇
- Enjoyed the massive rally on Friday as we got in front of it last week
- Seasonality gets better from this week onwards
- Resistance region around 432-435 (4 billion in darkpool there)
- Want deltas to continue going negative
Give a ♥️& 🔁
I've been doing this for a long time. But I got to admit this surprised me. I've never really made this comparison as Russell just isn't something I trade in Macro. Too small. But Jeez TIL $AAPL or $MSFT is bigger than all 2000 Russell stocks combined $RTY $IWM
$SPX - Monthly Chart:
As posted on July 31st, turbulence was expected for August and September, comparable to what happened on September and October 2020. A pullback to the 5 or 10MA on the Monthly may come.
Price behaved as expected, this is not Elliot Wave, this is reasonable technical analysis.
The updated chart presents:
1) 🎯Pullback in August to 5MA and on September to 10MA, the move in Sep-Oct 2020 came from similarities in extreme overbought conditions on August 2020 that were seen again on July 2023.
2) ⚠️Bearish Stochastic crossover, I mentioned during this week that technicals have suffered too much damage, this is one of many reasons. Charts do not repeat exact moves, anyway it's worth noting that in 2020 a bearish crossover also happened but it was untangled on November.
3) ✅Bullish MACD crossover is the main argument of the most optimists, it is correct that is a good signal and on 2020 the potential invalidation was discounted with November's rally.
4) ⚠️20MA is still trending down, different from 2020.
ℹ️2020 provides a recent example that is useful for educational purposes, 2023 is not expected to be the same.
ℹ️10MA on the monthly is a key line to maintain, today at 4217. Based on the daily and weekly charts posted yesterday, a green continuation is expected for $SPX, and it has to stay above that moving average to expect a revisit to 4607, which is the resistance point mentioned since March 2023🎯.
$SPX $SPY $QQQ $ES_F $NQ_F $CL_F $AAPL $TSLA $VIX $NVDA #TradingEducation #TradingCommunity $VTI $VOO #stockmarketcrash #SP500 #Stocks #Investing #Trading #bullmarket #bearmarket #Money #TradingPsychology
$ARKK still following the dot com bust scenario.
If we continue to follow the blueprint, we could be sliding all the way into Q1 2024.
New lows would be seen right towards new year.
$JHEQX JPM Collar rolled over. The new Q4 positions are:
Short Puts -> 3420
Long Puts -> 4055
Short Calls -> 4515
*Note the larger volume spikes were from the adjustment.