Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat

Right 65% of the time and incredibly proud of it. Hand size: 9”3/4 FTP:

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

I apologize to the FinTwit accounts that this is mostly a Canadian politics/econ account with the ever occasional wise telco/media point thrown in. But Shannon’s limit doesn’t hold!

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

@EScrimshaw Sir his base is boomer women

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

@robgillezeau @dipbrat70 One of my first bosses told me “once you see the media cover a topic you have deep expertise in you’ll never see the media in the same way again”

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

@robgillezeau @dipbrat70 Sir when the CBC seems dismissive and biased in your area of expertise what should this make you conclude when they’re covering something not in your area of expertise?

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

@MattZeitlin Levine is wrong about this. Index inclusion before lock-up ends is egregious. Let alone changing the rules to accomplish that.

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

@MattZeitlin Indices are designed to own all the stocks at fair market prices. If you add it to the index before the lock-up is done you never get the fair market price.

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

@michigeese Montreal is bad. The rest of the country is marginally worse than the US. They’ve been tiktok brained

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

@taobanker A tip to tech analysts, EBITDA vs gross PP&E growth is the proper way to measure the returns to incremental capex in capital intensive businesses.

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

@taobanker On consensus META is expected to grow EBITDA by $159B ‘25-30. It is expected to grow gross PP&E by $712B for a gross pre-tax return of 22%.

For ‘24-27 EBITDA is up $75B, gross PP&E up $354B, gross pre-tax return of 21%.

Not great not terrible, assumes all growth to capex tho.

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

@Blueelectron4 @calvinfroedge The index inclusion shenanigans has created far more torque. A TON of LOs want to buy it to not be underweight and a ton of HFs are begging for allocations based on thinking retail/index/LO demand is through a he roof. If those assumptions change it’s circular down

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

@thoheck @calvinfroedge This prevents tomorrow from just turning into a semis to software rotation. If those two hold at 9:30 it’ll be an ugly day.

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

@colossus_cap Sir how high do oil prices have to be from here to AVERAGE $153 in 2026?

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

With the two overarching points being sometimes regular people know it in their bones, and revisions aren’t always positive. In Young Jeezy’s case revisions meant the US was in fact in a recession at the time.

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

I have a fun story. Growing up I loved Young Jeezy’s album “the recession”. It turns out it was released Sept 2nd 2008. 13 days before Lehman filed for bankruptcy. At the time there were not two consecutive quarters (pre revisions!) of GDP growth.

[Paul Vieira @paulvieira]

Follow along: Tory leader Poilievre is correct, total business investment fell 0.7% nonannualized in 1Q, due to steep drops in construction, and both residential and nonresidential structures (1/3)

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

So Young Jeezy predicted the Great Recession before the economists! But it gets better, there’s a post on a stock blog arguing, pre-Lehman, that its release shows recession fears have to have peaked if rappers are releasing albums with said title, and time to buy stocks.

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

@blueprintsmb22 Shorting a name that has a mid-cycle multiple on peak earnings rinse repeat sounds like club med. 🤷‍♂️

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

@blueprintsmb22 This results in PMs in their 30s spending their time drilling their broccoli haired analysts about whether the Edgewater commentary is already priced in and what this means for the priced-inness of the coming yipit release.

Exhausting, even if it doesn’t sound like it.

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

https://t.co/cb3xEZNogC

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

🚨🚨🚨Trump on Truth Social: I had a very productive call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, and there will be no Troops going to Beirut, and any Troops that are on their way, have already been turned back. Likewise, through highly placed Representatives, I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that all shooting will stop — That Israel will not attack them, and they will not attack Israel

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

If one has experience reading between the lines, Trump was willing to pay Iran $100B to end this thing but backed off after extending Israeli and Iran Hawk blowback.

The problem for those 3 is that every day the strait is closed increase Iranian leverage.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran warns the US-Iran agreement "will be completely cancelled" due to ongoing US obstruction on clauses including the release of Iran's $100 billion of frozen assets, with the US now trying to link them to nuclear concessions which Iran rejects, per Tasnim.

The White House is now backing away from yesterday's "largely negotiated" claim, conceding the deal "could still fall apart," per senior US officials.

Trump himself walked back urgency on Truth Social from yesterdays "deal coming shortly" to now stating "time is on our side" and saying the blockade "will remain in full force," which Iran also says needs to be lifted in order sign any agreement.

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

This has of course grown more complicated given it looks like doing that will require banning Israel from receiving spare parts.

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

@atelicinvest @RenMacLLC The best case for the other side is that anyone who can move the paper market is subject to VaR limits. So Trump’s cracked the code that if you want to prevent institutional money from pricing in the future you send volatility to the moon.

[Reformist Canadian Landed Aristocrat @GmwuLocal]

@bless_bottle @MikePMoffatt @TorontoDDG @tylermeredith Imagine you have a toddler who’s growing but way below peers and how they used to be growing. Is it reassuring and non-terrible that they are in fact growing?

Modern economies grow. It is the foundational aspect of modernity.