Jay

just figuring stuff out. politics and news

[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

Unemployment isn’t falling because of improved job finding. Job finding remains weak. I calculate that the job finding rate fell to 24.2 percent, the lowest level since February.

[Jay @GodlessLib_CB]

@bdquinn The fiscal issues were always fake tho. Yeah sure it was a top polled issue, but it’s because of its linkage to immigration. (In their mind).

[Burnham: Son of the Century @corncobanalysis]

Colorado seems to be following the trend of just picking the most electable candidates for the non-safe seats

[Ed Bradford @Fullcarry]

Maybe labor market isn't as strong as most think. CB's labor market gauge continues its downtrend and is at a new cycle low

[Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @ReichlinMelnick]

It was struck down 6-3 decision, although only 5-4 on the Constitutional question. Four justices would have rewritten the Constitution's plain text and ignored centuries of precedent on the scope of birthright citizenship. Thankfully, they were the minority.

[Jay @GodlessLib_CB]

@bdquinn They’re skeptical of govt programs because they think money goes to “illegals”. It’s all linked back to their hatred of immigration and immigrants.

[Grace Cathedral Park @gracecthdralprk]

CIVIL SERVICE REFORM (1883-2026)

“GONE, BUT NOT FORGOTTEN”

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

In the newsletter, I wrote about one worrying, plausible path.

One in which the AI buildout continues to be seen as a quasi- nuclear arms race against China, and policymakers feel compelled to impose austerity on the non-AI economy to free up real resources for the buildout.

[Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @ReichlinMelnick]

This is basically nonsense. Immigrants cannot simply "apply for permanent residence." That is not how anything works. You have to have either close family ties to U.S. citizens or other permanent residents or fall within a very narrow category of employment-based visas.

[Jay @GodlessLib_CB]

@Noahpinion And I’m salty at that entire period except during the end of Clinton that we had full employment and didn’t care at all to combat it during the 2010’s and then it was taken for granted later. It is what it is.

[David J. Bier @David_J_Bier]

They were not airlifted. They went voluntarily because Americans wanted them there

[Jay @GodlessLib_CB]

@dcg1114 Don’t think it’s just vibes, Ossoff has a stronger positioning than Buttigieg because he’s competed in the South and has credibility as a result. Either way if Kamala runs idk what we are debating, she’ll probably win the delegate math.

[Paul E Williams @PEWilliams_]

@petersterne Well, no, because the caucus has 24 members and you need 26 votes to pass a budget. And you also need the mayor to sign it and it’s not clear the mayor would sign that budget. This just seems like a waste of time that does nothing but empower Menin. Total strategic flub.

[Minervas Muse @minervas_muse]

Look, the Haitians in Springfield working at factories are hard working, drug free, churchgoing. But the problem is that nativists get really, really mad when you say that, because that means they're "better" than white, native born, fent junkies.

The white part is key, btw.

[Jerusalem @JerusalemDemsas]

Elon Musk bragged about feeding USAID into the "wood chipper" but now he pretends that whatever happens as a result isn't his fault.

If DOGE had saved the federal government billions of dollars, you can be sure he would be taking credit for that.

But somehow he's not responsible for the consequences of eliminating these programs?

Today at @TheArgumentMag we published a thorough explanation for why we should hold @elonmusk responsible for the deaths of *at best* 700,000 people.

https://t.co/7CWoyQCiDk

[Jay @GodlessLib_CB]

@mattyglesias Well those things are also in conflict. There was a border crisis because there was a backlog and surge in labor demand after the pandemic restrictions were lifted, and inflation likely would have been worse without expansion of labor force.

[@aahan_prometheus @AahanPrometheus]

The Prometheus CPI Nowcast went below 2%

[@aahan_prometheus @AahanPrometheus]

This is not an economy imminently entering recession btw

[Jay @GodlessLib_CB]

@MakeUSAVAT @ettingermentum Yes. It’s what it’s always been about. My fundamental misunderstanding of the electorate was that I thought this issue was just a strongly held view of a significant portion of R’s and right leaning I’s rather than the electorate writ large when the border salience rises.

[Jay @GodlessLib_CB]

@ettingermentum IMO it was mostly about immigration and Cantor being a squish on it. It was evident in ‘14 from talk radio. Neglect of district was for sure a big issue though.

https://t.co/zGxmmCFmCp