Cottonwood Capital

Montana investment advisor. Follow at your own risk, not investment advice.

[Cottonwood Capital @GoldSentiment]

@nntaleb JOLTS hiring data: thank you for your service, you are no longer needed.

[Cottonwood Capital @GoldSentiment]

Could stocks be setting up for a multi-year bull run?

Historically, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment has been a great contrarian indicator at extreme readings.

I'm sure it's broken now though and the crowd has wised up.

1980 - Wrong
1991 - Wrong
2000 - Wrong
2009 - Wrong
2019 - Wrong
2026 - Finally got it right?

[Cottonwood Capital @GoldSentiment]

New highs is a seriously bullish endorsement, higher prices are likely.

[Dan Marchese @DChartLife]

Equal Weight Software just closed the day at its highest level ever.

[Cottonwood Capital @GoldSentiment]

The fact that Bright Horizons was a growth company is unfortunate.

The silver lining to any AI job losses will be more stay-at-home parents for the kiddos.

[Brent Beshore @BrentBeshore]

Skin in the game

[Cottonwood Capital @GoldSentiment]

Magazine covers can prove to be prescient contrarian indicators.

[J.C. Parets @JC_ParetsX]

👀

[Fireside Alpha @firesidealpha]

Jim Chanos explains why this AI boom carries more financial risk than almost any boom in history

“So, my friend Paul Kedrosky, I don’t know if you heard him recently, he had a wonderful point."

"I teach the history of financial-market fraud, but as part of it, we teach financial cycles because the fraud cycle follows the financial cycle, usually with a lag."

"And Paul made a wonderful point. I think he made it on your podcast, that major booms are either credit-related, government-related, technology-related, or real-estate-related."

"He said this is the first one in a long, long time, if not ever. I forget. I think railroads might have been the other one where all four boxes are checked."

"It’s government policy. It’s certainly technology. It’s certainly credit-driven now. And it’s real-estate-related with the buildout of data centers."

"And so you’ve got four giant drivers for this cycle that all need to be harnessed and going in the right direction, and that increases the financial risk that we’ve been talking about.”

[Cottonwood Capital @GoldSentiment]

"The AI industry is a snake eating its own tail: the very products that it’s pushing on users rely on fresh cultural content even as they destroy the economic incentives to create it..."
https://t.co/XgM5XMkDfM

[Cottonwood Capital @GoldSentiment]

@Fidelity @devsysape @Fidelity There's a site glitch preventing existing clients from opening a new joint brokerage account if they navigated from joint to then to open an individual account, and then back to joint.

[Cottonwood Capital @GoldSentiment]

Funny how @wsj only has a 2023 article to support a claim that X is "bleeding users and advertisers".
https://t.co/bEq9f2c7Ia

[Cottonwood Capital @GoldSentiment]

@Geiger_Capital From a few months ago:

https://t.co/XdPTfu9lN0

[Cottonwood Capital @GoldSentiment]

Sentiment matters.

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

"I don’t see how rates can go down…"

Top.

[Larry Thompson, CMT CPA @HostileCharts]

How would you rate this diet:

50% Carbs
30% Rice
20% Bread

[Cottonwood Capital @GoldSentiment]

@resourcebull Please post all sell decisions asap. Thank you in advance.

[Cottonwood Capital @GoldSentiment]

The fact that betting lines are efficient and noise dominate all sports ensures this will be a disaster if not checked.

https://t.co/mcTyiDishV

[Cottonwood Capital @GoldSentiment]

Cottonwood’s 2026 mid year commentary is now available.

https://t.co/Z14s4fn3Qu

[Cottonwood Capital @GoldSentiment]

@hkuppy Hey Kuppy, I’m working my way through the book list you had on your blog (For Good and Evil is turning out to be a page-turner).

Any books from the last few years that you’ve found particularly valuable that weren’t on that list?
Thanks!

[Callum Thomas @Callum_Thomas]

Gold allocations at the highs
Bitcoin allocations at the lows

p.s. sometimes the crowd is right, but also; the more minds are made up, the more minds there are to change given the right reason...

[Cottonwood Capital @GoldSentiment]

Not flat, actually. BTC down 30%.

If you care about bitcoin then watch the dollar.

[Cottonwood Capital @GoldSentiment]

How can you be bullish on BTC if USD is stable or looking to move higher?

Next few months for bitcoin are probably flat, at best.

[Cottonwood Capital @GoldSentiment]

Crypto might be a banger in 2027.

I don't have a dog in the crypto fight whatsoever and largely agree with Buffett on the topic.

However, the asset class is gaining institutional acceptance and can certainly have another leg higher. Even if prices don't rise, the asset class isn't going anywhere for a while.

https://t.co/u3PqLLYKfq