Eric

when you want nothing, you have everything | speculator | tweets are not financial advice

[Eric @Guanksy]

@zhusu wasn’t wrong on the GBTC trade, but markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

[Hold The Mayo @snowlikejonn]

Staring down the actual Declaration of Independence before stepping into the octagon as an underdog to beat the piss out of an undefeated fighter in front of the world is an extraordinary level of legendary

[SportsCenter @SportsCenter]

Ilia Topuria was helped out of the Octagon by his brother and left on a cart.

#UFCFreedom250

[Eric @Guanksy]

@KobeissiLetter Bullish selling

[Hunter Biden @HunterBiden]

@gmoneyNFT Hyperliquid

[Eric @Guanksy]

@dampedspring Hyperliquid

[Eric @Guanksy]

@Barchart @PythiaR This is bullish selling

[JT @jiratickets]

throwback to when intel crashed 25% in a single day to an 11 year low and the CEO was literally posting prayers on the TL

now they’re trading at half a trillion and posting hype edits

mandate of heaven

[Eric @Guanksy]

@WatcherGuru Test dump

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Ferrari stock, $RACE, falls over -7% after revealing the design of its first electric vehicle.

[Tokyo Deep Value @TokyoDeepValue]

There are hundreds of Japanese stocks trading at 1 to 2x cash flow, with land carried on the books at 1965 acquisition cost, run by 75-year-old presidents who have hoarded cash for 30 years and are now, finally, being forced to do something about it by activists, the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and a generational handoff that is sending shares from founding fathers to daughters who do not want to run forklift-spring factories in Gifu Prefecture. You build a basket of 30 to 50 names, sized small, hold for a decade, and let the math do the work. The only thing standing between you and the trade is a brokerage account, a translation tool, and the willingness to do the unglamorous work that almost no other American investor will bother to do.

[BOSS @thebeautyofsaas]

it is an unwritten rule of life that after every prolonged period of hardship and uncertainty, there is going to be a period when you are going to achieve quantum leaps across multiple areas of your life. the only requirement is that you do not give up on yourself

[Eric @Guanksy]

@DavidSacks All of this hinges on the revenue generation of ~$25-30bn/year. If there’s an overbuild or demand flattens, you’re going to see huge compressions here

[Mr. 小川 | 🐬TermMax @xiaochuan8688]

TSMC 亚利桑那厂已经悄悄失败——400 亿美元烧完，良率不到日本厂的一半

主流叙事是"美国半导体回流成功了"。但真实数据完全相反——TSMC 亚利桑那 3 年投了 400 亿美元，2026 Q1 良率仅 52%，对比日本熊本厂 95%、台湾本土 98%，差距大到不能称作工厂。

问题 1：人才训练根本没完成。 TSMC 从台湾调了 1500 名工程师轮班支援，但当地招聘的 6000 名本地员工平均培训周期需要 4-6 年——美国大学根本没有"半导体产线工程师"这个专业方向。

问题 2：供应链没跟上。 高纯度光刻胶、特种气体、超净化学品——80% 在日本、20% 在台湾。亚利桑那厂每片晶圆的综合成本，是台南厂的 1.6 倍。

问题 3：客户开始用脚投票。 苹果、AMD 原本承诺把高端订单转到亚利桑那，2026 Q2 实际只下了 15% 的计划订单——其余全部还在台湾生产。"政治正确"敌不过经济账。

TSMC 内部怎么说？ 张忠谋早在 2023 年就警告："亚利桑那是个浪费。"现任 CEO 魏哲家最近第一次承认"美国厂进展不如预期"——这是台积电高管 30 年来最直白的自我否定。

半导体回流不是美国想做就能做的，这是 50 年产业积累的结果，不是 4000 亿补贴能买到的。

[Global Bagholding Opportunities IV L.P. @justbrosef]

Semis.

[AP Research @AlphaPicks]

Pretty brutal factor unwind today, with AI power, momentum, speculative growth, and memory all leading to the downside.

[Meb Faber @MebFaber]

Imagine telling someone in 1953 — as Korea lay in ruins after the war — that one day its stock market would be bigger than the UK's.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

SAM BANKMAN FRIED PICKED EVERY WINNER OF THE 2020s AND HIS LAWYERS SOLD THEM ALL AT THE BOTTOM.

If the FTX estate hadn't panic-sold its assets during bankruptcy, SBF would be sitting on a $114 billion empire today. Instead, he is watching the greatest trades of the decade from a prison cell.

The data is almost impossible to believe:

- Anthropic: $82.3 billion (165x) SBF bought an 8% stake for $500M. The estate sold it for $1.3B in 2024. Today, that stake would be worth over $80B.

- SpaceX:$15 billion (75x) A massive stake liquidated early to pay creditors.

- Solana: $5.1 billion (27x) SBF was an early backer at $8. The estate offloaded a massive chunk at $64.

- Robinhood: $4.9 billion (8x)

- Genesis Digital: $3.5 billion (3x)

The Latest "Missed" Fortune: CURSOR

In 2022, Alameda Research wrote a tiny $200,000 check for a 5% stake in the AI startup Cursor. In April 2023, the bankruptcy estate sold that entire stake back for exactly what they paid: $200,000.

Yesterday, SpaceX announced a deal to buy Cursor for $60 billion.

That "worthless" 5% stake would be worth $3 billion today. That is a 15,000x return that vanished because the lawyers wanted a quick exit.

SBF was a genius at picking generational winners and a criminal at managing their money.

The lawyers recovered $18 billion for users. If they had just held, they would be sitting on $114 billion and the most valuable venture portfolio in history.

[mispriced @mispricedrisk]

$MAPS for 57m of market cap, you get: 57m of net cash, 65m NCAV, 71m TBV, and an operating business that generated 40m in EBITDA last year

G&D style net-net at an earnings inflection point re: rescheduling

NFA

[Eric @Guanksy]

@alvarogomezolea Thank you for selling the bottom

[Pope Leo XIV @Pontifex]

When simulation becomes the norm, it weakens the human capacity for discernment. As a result, our social bonds close in upon themselves, forming self-referential circuits that no longer expose us to reality. We thus come to live within bubbles, impermeable to one another. Feeling threatened by anyone who is different, we grow unaccustomed to encounter and dialogue. In this way, polarization, conflict, fear and violence spread. What is at stake is not merely the risk of error, but a transformation in our very relationship with truth.