HB Research

Quantitative market research / Data-driven Analysis.
Historical stats support a thesis - they don’t replace one.
Not investment advice. DYOR.

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

@CyclesFan pretty big one, and we are up even more now: https://t.co/Sxar9Q6rL7

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

$MSFT is on track for the biggest one-day gain since the GFC.

(not closed)

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

$MSFT is on track for the biggest one-day gain since the GFC.

(not closed)

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

Another version, without the 50D rising:

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

Tech is down hard, but the broad market still looks healthy.

With Nasdaq 8–12% below ATH, while the S&P is only 2–3% below and its 50D is rising, the sell-off has historically been tech-specific.

Nasdaq was higher every time 2M and 3M later:
+8.6% and +9.9% on average (n=17).

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

@bobmenr This drop is basically the only one of its magnitude. I could lower the threshold to a 13–15% monthly drop, but I don’t think that would be very constructive.
i've those stats from yesterday: https://t.co/vzCh8iq0Kk

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

Crazy momentum selling just won’t stop.

The PTF (a US tech-momentum ETF) has dropped more than 9% in just two days, for the second time since this correction began.

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

KOSPI is now in its fifth-deepest drawdown on record

Roughly two-thirds of the decline has been driven by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix alone.

[Mark Ungewitter @mark_ungewitter]

Extreme volume has signaled both capitulation near local bottoms and recognition following important tops. Risk management, anyone?

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

@mark_ungewitter exactly!

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

Highest volume since 2019

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

SMH, the semiconductor ETF, just traded 3.44× its prior 20-day average volume - an unusually large spike.

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

@fxevolution Here full history with 20D avg
https://t.co/PDr8V61f0Q

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

SMH, the semiconductor ETF, just traded 3.44× its prior 20-day average volume - an unusually large spike.

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

@RyanDetrick here with more history https://t.co/PDr8V61f0Q

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

SMH, the semiconductor ETF, just traded 3.44× its prior 20-day average volume - an unusually large spike.

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

@Rubengd Thank you so much, love to hear that you enjoy my content, means a lot!
Thanks for the constant support on the post's. 🙏

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

Crazy momentum selling just won’t stop.

The PTF (a US tech-momentum ETF) has dropped more than 9% in just two days, for the second time since this correction began.

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

@smdcapital check pm rq

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

@smdcapital Could present a good buying opportunity, though many of the weak historical returns came during the dot-com bust and the GFC.

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

The RSP/SPY 4D ratio ROC has again crossed above +2.2%, showing that the equal-weighted broader market is still intact and outperforming cap-weighted SPY.

Historically, the Nasdaq 100 has performed exceptionally well after these events.

(Small sample, SPX returns in comments)

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

@ChrisGuthrie @smdcapital Yeah someone already pointed that out, I rushed the stats and realized it too late. Not his mistake.

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

11.7% median return is for 3 months, not 12.
Across all Nasdaq days, the equivalent random-sample median is just +4.7%; the joint result occurs with p=0.0002.
A regime-matched placebo test using 10,718 random samples shows a +9.1% median 3M return, versus +12.5% after this setup; the joint median and win-rate result has a p-value of 0.026. After reducing the 20 signals to 14 independent episodes.

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

Nasdaq is only ~8.6% below its all-time high, yet NAMO has crossed below −40.

After 7–12% pullbacks from ATH, while Nasdaq stays at least 3% above its 200D, it was higher every time three months later, +11.7% median (n=20).

(7-10% version in comments)