Winter Stoner

A man with schizophrenia who thinks he worked as an intern at the @citadel and then got a job at @wintermute_t
(it's true)

[Winter Stoner @HFTMutant]

I'll tell you what, we're going to grow like hell from here!

[Georgie Boy 👽 The Alien Boy @fockgeorgieboy]

The worst of our industry

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

So Meta, Google, Anthropic, SpaceX, and OpenAI will raise around $350B-$400B from the public markets in the next 9-12 months
At this rate, Amazon & Microsoft will join the party too
We might even see $550B-$600B raised from the public markets

[NEET @NEETOCRACY]

“Mint billions of coins out of thin air. It’s a privacy coin so they’ll never know”

[Ansem @blknoiz06]

buying $ZEC at $615 is like buying $BTC at $615

[Naval @naval]

Co-founder is marriage without the sex.

[Kyle @zeroxkyle]

In the past 24h
> Anthropic warns to slow AI down because of recursive improvement
> Opus 4.8 finds critical vulnerability in blockchain w a market cap of $8B
> Exchanges lower the barrier of entry for retail - only 2k to invest in SpaceX IPO;
> Pumpfun launches bounties - pay anyone to do anything. Top bounty is $50k to sky dive into the world cup

Yea culture is getting out of hand, AI is going to enable disastrous consequences, social boundaries are degrading, K shaped economy is going to accelerate, you are going to be poor, own nothing, and have to participate in the hunger games for the elite class

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*DALIO SAYS AI BUBBLE WILL BURST EVENTUALLY

[Matthew Prince 🌥 @eastdakota]

Welp, that happened faster than I predicted. Thought it would be end of 2027, then early 2027, but agentic traffic growing so fast that bots have now passed human traffic online for the first time in the Internet's history. https://t.co/2zX5bHdhsa

[Kyle @zeroxkyle]

MSTR Summary (As I understand it)

The market basically has an extremely large overhang of a potential BTC seller. Now MSTR has been a big reason why rallies at highs have always continued on longer than it should - it is an essential indicator to track for the health of the bull market - early stage bull = MSTR buys usually was sustained continuous bullish momentum ; late stage bull = MSTR buys would hold price up, before a nuke after the announcement that Saylor has been buying

Now this is potentially unravelling, essentially because the day of reckoning has come - after all, when someone buys, one must ask - how does he get the capital to buy? Saylor has historically funded it through equity financing / convertible notes / term loans / and more recently, preferred equity product financing - and I'll try to explain it simply as how I understand it.

Now for most of the time, equity financing was actually a very sustainable ponzi. Equity had no guarantee of returns. That is a good thing. Of course, this all came at the expense of MSTR shareholders, but the idea that I believe Saylor had, was that "we are selling the stock, to buy something that has more convexity than the stock (BTC), so that, in 10 years, we will end up with a lot more money, and so the stock will be a lot higher" - i.e you're trading short term PA for long term CAGR

This of course assumes a lot of things - 1) that BTC will be higher in 10 years, 2) that BTC has some sort of CAGR, and 3) that stock price will reflect this, and 4) that people will buy the story, and 5) that the market will like it, will reward it (and it has, for the past 4 years)

Now, all's well. This is where we get to the trouble - Saylor launched a bunch of new products recently - STRC / STRD / etc. I'm not an expert in these products, so feel free to correct me where I'm wrong, but these are preferred shares that pay yield. They say: Hey, give me cash. I'll give you yield. This yield varies in order to keep the product at par value ; i.e If today it goes to 90, the yield increases to get people to "buy" it so as to "peg" it there;

I'm not going to go through each product - they all work slightly differently. The rest are fixed yield instead of variable; All you have to understand is at this point, MSTR now began giving out money (i.e having yield)

This is a bad thing and where the story is now. Having obligations means having to spend cash to pay yield, which means, in a company that hinges on an assumption of the 15% CAGR of a magical internet asset with no real cashflows ( other than software biz) - where is the money coming from?

The way I see it, you basically have an extremely huge cloud looming on the horizon. You don't know when the hurricane will start, but you see it. This is enough to prevent BTC from reaching new highs in the first place - it is possible to kick the can down the road, to "look away from the hurricane", but the hurricane is there all the same, just waiting for its reckoning.

He holds $53 BILLION in Bitcoin (Based on Price of 63k), yet only has enough cash for 6 months of dividend coverage (numbers are from https://t.co/Dn0HtZunrC). And back in February they claimed a $2.25 Billion reserve - this reserve has been drawn hard (now it's 900M)

Saylor has 3 ways out. And again - this is just my analysis - I could be missing something:
1. Stop the yield. He can theoretically (since these are all preferreds, correct me if I'm wrong) just stop payments.
2. Somehow finance more $ to pay dividends, either by selling more MSTR, or raising debt.
3. Sell BTC to pay his bills

Now, obviously, the second-order effects of all of these are incredibly bad no matter how you see it.

For 1) if he does that, faith in MSTR would collapse, stock prices would probably go down, STRC goes to Mordor, and maybe he doesn't have to sell BTC, but there are still obligations to pay, so it doesn't fully solve the issue. The thing is - stop paying STRC can be done, but it's like putting a bandaid when your arm gets cut off.

Because what happens here is that (and this is where I'm relying on Claude, who read the offering doc) - he stops the cash from going out, but the obligation still exists - i.e He can stop the payment, but he can't cancel the debt. It's like your landlord coming to you for this month's rent, and you defer it to next month - but you now have to pay two months' worth of rent next month, not just a month's rent

STRC is cumulative - so stopping = you don't pay cash now, but the amount you skipped gets added to a tab and grows. And because STRC is a "Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock" with perpetual being the key word here, there is no maturity date, it doesn't end, and the only true way to stop it is by buying it back with cash. Else, the dividend just keeps compounding at the back.

Buying back is an option, and according to Claude, the cash redemption price is $101 per share - so $8 Bn if he wanted the whole STRC stack gone. But that's where we come back to the above - he doesn't have the cash!

For 2) It's like rolling your credit card bill. This months bill comes in - you take a new credit card, use it to pay your old one, and for the next month, you're chilling, and you extend the runway. Now if BTC magically goes up to 200k, then you are safe, you can pay your obligations, selling some BTC won't matter.

For 3) This is the worst case scenario. I mean, this is just a doom loop. On 1st June, MSTR already filed a sale of 32 BTC (2.5m), the first strategic / material sale in history. The other sale was in 2022, and that was a tax-loss sale which they bought back immediately. BTC instantly went down by 6-7% on the day, and it's down 12% since then. If they sell more, BTC is just going to go down faster than they would get $ back from selling, and they're basically left holding the bag.

My analysis:
For now, the markets will probably stay at a standstill until this is resolved. Everyone is watching to see what Saylor will do. Again, he owns roughly 4% of all BTC. And what happens if BTC keeps going down? That would be a doom loop playing out. And putting yourself into the mindset of a buyer - why would I buy BTC here, when I know there is a potential seller coming here tomorrow?

I'm reminded of an old joke in the office that our head of trading used to say, that originated on wall street:

A trader thinks that the prices of eggs are going to increase, and so he contacts his broker and asks him to buy 1,000,000 egg futures at $1.70

Sure enough, a week later, the price of egg futures is $2.50, and the trader, happy to ride his winners, places an order for 3,000,000 more egg futures

Next month, at $4.30 a piece, he pats himself on the back and restructures his liquid investments to buy another 10,000,000 egg futures

At the end of the quarter, egg futures are trading at $7, and the trader finally calls up his broker and tells him to sell them all

The broker replies: “To who? You’re the egg man!”

PSA: This is a personal opinion piece written in my individual capacity, not on behalf of or attributable to my employer. It is not investment research, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or asset.

It does not constitute financial advice and should not be relied upon for any investment decision; readers should do their own research and consult their own advisors. All views are my own as of the date of writing and may change without notice. Factual claims are drawn from public sources and may contain errors or become outdated.

I hold no position, long or short, in BTC, MSTR, or any related security, and have no economic interest in the price of any asset discussed. I receive no compensation from any party in connection with this piece.

[Winter Stoner @HFTMutant]

Братанчик, это все понятно, хорошее расследование.

Просто если задуматься, а что плохого он делает если брать крипто мир? То есть чувак, контролирует токен > распампил его (ты мог кстати залететь на этот рост, как и тот чувак, которого вчера хитнули на 4,2 единицы. Изначально же он делал все правильно и лонгал, не суть).

Так вот, ну тут же все собираются чтобы поиграть в эту понциномику. Ты покупаешь токен, в надежде что где-то там наверху будет контрагент с другой стороны, чтобы впихнуть ему свою сумку. Разве не так? Этот Вова, и его там команда - делает точно также, только они играют с ВХ и АИМ'ом, я согласен что это отвратительно по отношению к ретейлу и людям кто зайдет на хаях - но, ты подписываешь негласное правила регистрируя себе аккаунт на бирже или создавая кошелек. Что ты не будешь плакать в казино, ведь ты бы был счастлив если бы разбогател.

Вся суть крипты это буквально: раздобыть/создать токены > втюхать их другим и привлечь внимание, все, это так сейчас выглядит нынешний рынок.

Тот же CZ и его картель буквально убил рынок 10/10, так что же ты ему то не предъявляешь каждый пост? А выбрал вот таргетировано бить по Володьке?

Это просто мои мысли, типо реально, как будто этот Вова и его брат убили там пол планеты и мол его надо линчевать и еще доксить семью его, ну такое себе как будто поведение.

[durial @durial]

let me give a proper explanation on how this shit works because seeing a lot of fake news

when you see these insane candles happening on random tokens like LAB, RAVE, Momentum etc it’s because of a group of people do what is called “active market making”

almost all of these “active market makers” are based in China/Asia. many claim to be able to achieve results like RAVE and LAB but few can actually properly deliver

typically these AMMs will either approach projects prior to launch or after launch (if certain conditions can be met). but scammy projects also look to approach them

the deal is usually that the AMM will put up the capital needed to push the token to the insane highs you see, and in return for the project letting the AMM “crime” their token they split whatever the profits are once the crime is complete

so how does the crime work and how do the people involve profit?

the first thing you’ll notice is that all these tokens have perp listings (usually binance perps) but very few spot listings

this is intentional. the first major requirement for this crime to happen is absolute control of the spot supply of the token

by that I mean the team/insiders need to control basically the entirety of the float. RaveDAO for instance, insiders were estimated to control over 98% of the spot supply

this is vital because spot supply that isn’t controlled by insiders can be sold into the spot price being driven up by perps. to help prevent this is another reason why tokens with basically no spot listings or liquidity are chosen. if there is a lot of spot supply ready to be dumped on the AMM then it could bankrupt them, meaning the crime has failed

as it is their capital at risk, AMMs are even asking projects to put them on all the multisigs for the token supply, to ensure that nothing can be dumped while the crime is happening

so once supply is completely controlled then what?

these AMMs don’t just commit the crime from one or two binance accounts. the accounts would likely be frozen instantly. instead they have 1000s of KYC’d accounts which operate in unison to drive the perp price up

because no one has supply to sell, there isn’t any other way to drive the price back down except to short

but this is where they get you

the AMM can squeeze any short placed, as every shorter will have their breaking point. either their own tolerance or a liquidation point. every short that gets liquidated or stopped out is profit for the AMM

add onto the fire that because of huge dislocations between underlying and perp price, you get some insane funding rates. as I write this LAB is -1% an hour shorts pays longs (over 8000% a year). this makes it even harder for shorts to hold their position, plus the AMM is making bank on their long positions funding

BriskCapital is right when he says they wouldn’t have let him win with this size of a short position, especially publicly. his mistake was trying to short it in the first place, which is exactly what the AMMs want you to do. where do you think the 7 figs he lost went to?

then whenever they decide the crime is complete they pull the rug and you see the collapse candle to zero. because they are the only entity holding the bid up, they have complete control over when and how the price collapses (meaning they can also likely join in on the short)

my advice is to not touch these tokens. if you want to feel something just buy a small amount for fun. definitely do not buy anything sizeable, do not make any trades on leverage and DO NOT SHORT

you are trying to compete against an entity that has complete control over where price goes

[🧗‍♂️ Matt Holt @mholt6]

Wait why are HDD prices also 2x? Surely AI isn't resorting to spinning disks?

Bought a 20 TB Seagate a few months ago for $287, now it's over $600.

[Z @ZeeContrarian1]

The greatest tragedy of Bitcoin is the opportunity cost.

A generation of pro-tech, pro-future investors spent the past year holding Bitcoin for dear life, following it blindly even as every thesis except scarcity collapsed before their eyes.

The irony is that these were exactly the people who should have made the most money from the AI boom. They understood technology. They understood exponential change. They were looking in the right direction, but at the wrong asset.

While they stayed glued to Bitcoin, companies like $MU, $SNDK, $NBIS, and other AI infrastructure winners they understood better than most delivered life-changing returns.

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

Why is crypto not going up while everything is?

Because a large majority of you cunts spent the last cycle promoting garbage negative sum meme coins to newcomers
Now those people hate crypto and your meme coin is worth zero regardless while some scamming cunt drives a new lambo

[Winter Stoner @HFTMutant]

Поверь, есть еще 500+ команд с таким же родом деятельности которые навайбкодили себе софт под маркет-мейкинг и могут спокойно накачивать и сбрасывать, а вина будет на Грачеве или Гаевом, потому что они публичные персоны.

Ты даже сам в своей статье доксишь вот этого Влада или как он там, осознавая что ранее он был теневой персоной. Так и маркет-мейкеры они такие же, да даже он сам может это памповать со своим софтом навайбкоженым, это же не HFT, а просто pump&dump.

[Kyle @zeroxkyle]

This is frankly genius. The consequences are also immeasurable

1. Every crypto exchange is now a stock exchange platform. This means more competition vs HOOD / IBKR / etc. I'm ngl, alot of HOOD's pitch was "good UI for retail" but I don't think it can stand a chance against Binance for anything ex-US

2. Just wondering how exchanges can do this - isn't there a ton of regulation (?) Think maybe this can set precedent for a lot of different things - i.e the wave of financialization is upon us, everything is now gambling / an exchange / financialized

3. I do think crypto exchanges have an edge over traditional Moomoo / Tiger Trade / WeBull etc. and think it's going to be interesting to watch Web2 vs Web3 go head to head

4. This is IMO bad for Hyperliquid. It may not be 24/7 like tradexyz, but basically Binance is not going to relent and it will be a head to head fight. Doesn't mean it's bad for HYPE the token (it's not), but it is bad for Hyperliquid the exchange (more competition)

5. Lastly, I think this massively changes the crypto playing field. Now, there is no reason for crypto to be treated as a " separate asset class" - people are going to weigh stocks vs crypto coins, and use similar frameworks to measure them. This basically forces the investable playing field of crypto-assets to be extremely fundamental driven, akin to stocks

L1s are probably excluded, as they will likely be treated like "Blockchains" and ARE a realm of their own. Same with the high-mindshare memecoins (DOGE, SHIB, etc.)

But for 99% of other stuff, like say, gaming coins, defi coins, etc. they will be treated like a stock. How much money is this business making? What's their moat? etc.

This self-selects for the strongest coins and businesses to succeed. Very bullish the culling of all the dead-weight of crypto from the past 5 years

[Winter Stoner @HFTMutant]

@citrini @zephyr_z9 Good Joob ;*

[Rex @R89Capital]

You make it in crypto by having zero risk management at the right time

This is also why it has a 99.9% failure rate