HalkingTeds

[HalkingTeds @HalkingT]

@RealBPhil @TPPF Permian oil co’s are electrifying ops cause electric grids are cheaper than diesel and gas gen. Even ignoring emissions, the oil co’s are building micro grids and generation cause utilities are so behind in servicing load & would electrify every pump and compressor if possible

[HalkingTeds @HalkingT]

@trevor_rose_ US energy names may be undervalued but the industry composition and free cash yield of arbitrary equity indices of two completely different economies is a horrible argument why

[HalkingTeds @HalkingT]

@TSCGllc It seems the market is breaking down and the signal is unclear how much structural oil and refining supply needs to replace Hormuz exposed capacity or (worse) how much demand destruction is needed to bridge there? At least either huge infra projects or electrification is needed

[HalkingTeds @HalkingT]

@TSCGllc If China storage & EM demand elast higher & western demand elast lower than expected, should the range be wider? Seems like a huge storage cushion, decent oil substitutes and massive indefinite supply questions over 40% of world supply makes it a 2-3 year widowmaker trade? (1/2)

[HalkingTeds @HalkingT]

@GreyHairOpsGuy The ole turn the war off and restart it

[HalkingTeds @HalkingT]

@valuedontlie Co shouldn’t exist as a public entity so it’s unclear what the strategy is. Combo of hedges and capex means cash flow negative in short term, G&A of $20mm is 4x too high for this size. No growth potential with CA risk and heavy P&A liability means only upside is $100 oil forever

[HalkingTeds @HalkingT]

@MikeFellman The 1.5 million is based on a Reddit post multiplying total deaths by Muslim population percentage and is inflated by 10x-20x. Not opinion on the broader point, but this figure doesn’t pass the sniff test given the forces involved

[HalkingTeds @HalkingT]

@EnergyCredit1 W&T buying a bunch of $120 call options this quarter brought tears to my eyes

[HalkingTeds @HalkingT]

@ScottIrwinUI Bless this

[HalkingTeds @HalkingT]

@rickjeff78 @SQUABABA That makes no sense. Refineries consume crude oil. Refining margins are at peak cycle and are running peak utilization. Oil exports could only affect that by exports outbidding US refiners which won’t happen. US doesn’t even have enough export capacity to “run out” of NAM oil

[HalkingTeds @HalkingT]

@redbuckman Cause of greater associated gas?

[HalkingTeds @HalkingT]

@ShaleTier7 They are the opposite of Tourmaline and it’s not gonna matter cause they can grow production into a better market

[HalkingTeds @HalkingT]

@CajunCowboy15 @NewsFinOil If you think Brent less shipping costs is a fraction of true value then you can do a lot more than complain about it on here. If you’re willing to put your money where your mouth is and you’re right you’ll be too rich to care

[HalkingTeds @HalkingT]

@StreetBomber @WAR527 Not with these crack spreads and likelihood they last this time. This is as if oil rips and you have to post collateral on your hedged production. They’ll see a huge working capital outflow and push as much into expenses to keep GAAP income low but US refiners are minting

[HalkingTeds @HalkingT]

@bauhiniacapital What’s the timeline? LNG is bottleneck for gas and that ramp is foreordained given projects take 4 years from FID to commissioning. US adding 2/3 bcf/d per year for next 3 years at most. Crude is all based on drilling econs but could add 500-1MMBbl/d in 12 months with more rigs

[HalkingTeds @HalkingT]

@junkbondinvest In all fairness when properly marked it’s a much smaller % of the portfolio

[HalkingTeds @HalkingT]

@marginofdanger @tradingrust @ragingbullcap @ClarkSquareCap They won’t have to take it private with SBC at these levels

[HalkingTeds @HalkingT]

@EnergyCynic It’s actually frustrating imo that a big co is the only one seemingly doing the obvious thing and responding to seasonal price trends and volatility in tape while growing volumes long term rather than smoothing earnings and gas

[HalkingTeds @HalkingT]

@MLPguy Maybe like telecom fiber capacity needs are overstated with efficiencies? Even data center build out can’t soak up the cash the tech co’s can churn. Seems gas is only ST option and somewhere in the US will allow them.

Midstream mgmt teams will fumble it regardless like always