A 🧵 about my journey as an investor 💸.
I'll share how it all started in high school and how it was always present in my life despite long periods of not being in the market.
@charlierward@tbpn@danshipper There is a counterpoint that it can also make it harder for new entrants to break into a space thereby giving compounding advantages to incumbents who would have enough time to acquire *struggling to break through* upstarts and buy their way out of trouble
@park_jun_woo@tbpn@danshipper Very good point. Also we are starting to see a premium on trust, which doesn’t bode well for the average vibe coded slaas
Having said that, the counter argument is that the decay will be relatively limited and the upstarts will cover new ground with new companies
And we will discover that competition will be resource intensive even in agentic engineering accelerated shops - not because of tokens but because of the new explorations unlocked by AI
@tbpn@danshipper It’s not just about people vibe coding apps, it’s mainly about lowering the barrier to entry in *any* category of *long checklist of features* software
Legacy SaaS companies are vulnerable to more nimble upstarts who architect their products with agentic eng from the ground up
@buccocapital the key is to constantly replenish and let go - there's a lot of narcissistic supply to tap into in that 70k range and you need constant fresh blood
In many cases, there comes a time when old narcissistic supply tastes less succulent and can be replaced by fresh sadistic supply
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@buccocapital he's been fairly spot on regarding the activities typically associated with software engineering
Anthropic hiring engineers to build the machine that builds the machines only means they intend to accelerate, at the rate talent and culture will allow it
🚨 BREAKING: Emmanuel Macron just flatly rejected Trump’s Greenland fantasy.
The French president made it clear: Greenland is not for sale and will not be taken.
A direct rebuke of Trump’s threats and a reminder that allies aren’t colonies.
That’s what leadership looks like.
@qcapital2020 Meta is unlikely to ever develop the product and organizational muscle to serve customers
They treat creators and advertisers pretty poorly and yet the wildly successful business works because they own 3B users
@adam__xyz Most IPOs end up trading below their offer price for an extended period of time - it’s really not that uncommon - it’ll take some time for institutions to do their due diligence and build conviction
In the meantime, the role of design tools is under attack from LLMs and code gen
@LukeGromen@greg_ip would CNY appreciation immediately catapult China into #1 slot in global gdp?
it seems like they’re being cautious about taking any such spotlight
Harvey just raised $150M after raising $300M four months ago after raising $300M four months prior to that. Company raised over $700M this year. Company was at $75M revenue run rate in April. Even at $150M run rate, that's 53.3x sales for a company eating cash in software.
Harvey is also looking to expand into tax accounting, which I view as a curious choice if the legal product is going that well and the TAM is supposedly that large. Doesn't strike me that the core competencies would have that much overlap and now the business is competing with more focused rivals on multiple fronts.
I could be eating crow when it's all said and done, but I'm holding to my view this business will be more of a cautionary tale than banner success, especially for later investors.
@credistick My preference in such an early round would be to give myself the most room to build momentum *and* give myself some type of acquihire floor in case of early exit
But I’d steer clear of rounds setting the bar too high unless market derisked. I find 40pre -> 80pre big jump pre pmf
@MatthewBerman very normal stuff in SF to live with people who end up doing crazy shit, similar in NY too
Dwarkesh also said that very recently, before the pod took off he was just a kid in a small bedroom with no money