Hugo Alves, CFA

Markets, Finance & Real Estate Investments

[Marcos Agustín @marcosagusstinn]

🇪🇺🇺🇸 Trump will go down as the best EU president ever.

His ignorance catalysed European independence.

🔸 The EU aims to source 60% of defence procurement internally by 2035.

🔸 The EU is building sovereign cloud, AI and chip capacity to cut dependence on US technology.

🔸 The EU aims to complete its Single Market by 2027, compressing decades into two years.

🔸 74% of Europeans say EU membership benefits their country, the highest level ever recorded.

Collapsing trust in the US is pushing Canada and Britain towards Europe.

The next US president will be more diplomatic, but Europe’s path towards independence must remain irreversible.

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

Because Trump failed to achieve his objective in Iran using military force, he has pivoted to using economic sanctions instead. However, Operation Economic Outcast will not only fail, but the economic noose that actually tightens may end up being the one wrapped around our neck.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Alibaba's, $BABA, open-weight models have accumulated more than 3 billion global downloads in the past six months, eclipsing Meta, Alphabet and domestic peers to become the world’s No. 1 artificial-intelligence model, per Bloomberg.

[Ronaldo Caiado @ronaldocaiado]

Comigo na presidência, você vai dormir tranquilo igual ao @gilbertokassab no debate!

[Jornal O MIRANTE @O_MIRANTE]

Santarém com terceira maior fatia do investimento nacional para reparar estradas https://t.co/dAkL01523h #Santarém #Infraestruturas #Investimento #Estradas #ObrasPúblicas

[Damnang @damnang2]

For $MRVL investors

[République @republiqueBRA]

🏦 💰 José Olympio Pereira, ex-presidente do Banco J.Safra e ex-CEO do Credit Suisse, elogia as propostas e a coragem de Renan Santos e ajuda o presidenciável a abrir portas no mercado financeiro:

🗣️ “Meu filho me chamou a atenção para ele no início do ano e aí me interessei em conhecer. Achei um personagem interessante. É jovem, muito carismático, com boas ideias. Vi nele uma possibilidade de quebrar a polarização.”

[Marvell Technology @MarvellTech]

.@eetimes spoke with Marvell Associate Vice President of Product Marketing Khurram Malik about the company's memory-disaggregation strategy and what it means for hyperscale AI infrastructure.

The conversation covers all three tiers of the portfolio: the Bravera SC6 PCIe 6.0 SSD controller and its appeal to hyperscalers who want greater control over NAND behavior and supplier flexibility; the Structera CXL family for memory expansion, near-memory acceleration, and rack-scale pooling; and Photonic Fabric for optical shared memory extending across multiple racks.

A key insight from Malik: the next gains in AI performance will come not only from faster processors, but from better ways to store, pool, and move memory. Read more: https://t.co/rhmlFKgCzE

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

BREAKING: 🇨🇳 Chinese yuan just hit its strongest level against the US dollar since Feb 2023.

It is up almost 9% against the dollar since the April 2025 tariff shock.

[Bloomberg @business]

Alibaba's open-weight models have accumulated more than 3 billion global downloads in the past six months, eclipsing Meta, Alphabet and domestic peers to become the world’s No. 1 artificial-intelligence model https://t.co/d3HurwTJ0S

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

Forget about what Warsh says; pay attention to what the Fed does. The Fed's balance sheet expanded by $11.388 billion last week. If the Fed was serious about its 2% target, it would be shrinking its balance sheet. While Warsh talks about fighting inflation the Fed is creating it.

[Dan Kawa @DanKawa2]

Brasil: Tempestade Perfeita
By Dan Kawa
12Ago26

A terça-feira teve o Brasil como destaque negativo. Resultados corporativos abaixo do esperado, guidances mais cautelosos das empresas, uma inflação acima das expectativas, pesquisas eleitorais ainda mostrando a liderança de Lula e um downgrade do JPMorgan para o país. Podemos dizer que foi um dia de “tempestade perfeita” para os ativos brasileiros.

Os ativos locais estão baratos em relação aos padrões históricos e a posição técnica parece saudável. Contudo, temos pela frente um evento binário e determinante para o futuro do país, que são as eleições. Além disso, o quadro econômico parece pouco trivial. A inflação vem arrefecendo, mas permanece desconfortavelmente acima da meta. O crescimento começa a apresentar sinais mais preocupantes de desaceleração, enquanto o quadro fiscal segue em trajetória acelerada de deterioração, já partindo de patamares bastante desafiadores.

Diante desse cenário, não parece haver um trigger claro de curto prazo para uma melhora dos ativos locais. Por outro lado, valuations e posição técnica costumam produzir efeitos em horizontes mais longos, especialmente para investidores com maior capacidade de atravessar períodos de volatilidade. Muitas vezes, os triggers surgem sem que seja possível antecipá-los (quem imaginária a alta da bolsa e a queda do dólar em 2025 após o pânico de dezembro de 2024?). Assim, o horizonte de investimento de cada investidor será particularmente importante na construção de cada portfólio.

[Novo Nordisk @novonordisk]

We are entering into a new strategic partnership with Amazon Web Services (@awscloud) to accelerate drug discovery through AI.

Learn more in the press release here: https://t.co/9wwZ0Goprz

[Hugo Alves, CFA @HugoMCRAlves]

@CanarinhoFNC The trigger will be the FED QE and YCC…

[DZ @dyz_ob]

📈 Alibaba (https://t.co/92dGumF8jG $BABA) — Today's HK Trading Summary
📅 Monday 10 August 2026

The Numbers 💰
Close: HK$126.70 (+2.90 / +2.34% from prev HK$123.80)
Intraday range: HK$124.20 – HK$127.50 (2.67% swing) 📈📉
Volume: 53.63M shares | Turnover: HK$6.77B

Key signals 📡
🔸 Bid-ask ratio: +19.014 (strongly bullish — bid volume 404,700 vs ask volume 30,400)
🔸 Volume ratio: 0.50x (below average — half the typical turnover)

Catalyst summary 🔥
🔸 Alibaba-W (https://t.co/nqStOFsXIx): From "DingTalk" to "Qianwen Office"—AI-powered office solutions are reshaping productivity (Zheshang Securities, 8/10)
🔸 Hong Kong Market Midday Review: All three major indices rose, Hang Seng Index up 0.72%; tech stocks broadly advanced, Alibaba gaining over 2% (Futu News, 8/10)
🔸 CICC: Bullish on Alibaba's Cloud segment, citing accelerating revenue growth and improving profitability trends (Sina HK Stocks, 8/9)
🔸 Alibaba Group Will Announce June Quarter 2026 Results on August 20, 2026 (Dow Jones, 8/7)
🔸 Alibaba (09988) launched CosyVoice Studio, the first domestic AI-powered voice productivity platform (Zhitong Finance, 8/7)

Key Takeaways 🎯
1. Gap-up and hold above previous close
📈 — BABA opened at HK$125.40, gapping above the previous close of HK$123.80, and never traded below HK$124.20 all session. The stock closed at HK$126.70, near the intraday high of HK$127.50 — buyers were in control from open to close.

2. Overwhelming bid-side pressure
🏦 — The bid-ask ratio of +19.014 is exceptional: 404,700 bid volume against just 30,400 ask volume. This is a 13:1 bid dominance, suggesting institutional accumulation rather than retail chasing. The HK$0.10 spread and tight close near the high reinforce the demand picture.

3. Low volume tempers the bullish signal
📊 — Volume ratio of 0.50x means today's move happened on roughly half the average turnover. While 53.63M shares and HK$6.77B in turnover is substantial in absolute terms, the below-average participation suggests the move was driven by a lack of sellers rather than aggressive new buying. A breakout on 1.0x+ volume would carry more conviction.

4. Analyst consensus is unanimously bullish
🟢 — All 37 covering analysts rate BABA as buy or strong buy (89.19% strong buy, 10.81% buy, zero holds, zero sells). The average price target of HK$186.76 implies 47% upside from today's close of HK$126.70. Even the lowest target (HK$135.00) sits above current price, and the highest reaches HK$209.00.

5. Earnings in 10 days — the real test
⚖️ — Alibaba reports June quarter FY2026 results on August 20. Today's AI-driven catalysts (Qianwen Office, CosyVoice Studio) and CICC's bullish cloud note are building narrative momentum ahead of the print. The cloud segment's revenue acceleration and profitability improvement flagged by CICC will be validated or challenged on the 20th.

What to Watch 👀
🔸 Immediate support: HK$124.20 (today's low) — the stock held this level all session
🔸 Broken resistance / secondary support: HK$123.80 (previous close) — gap-up means this is now a floor to defend
🔸 52-week range: HK$88.65 – HK$185.17 — stock sits at 68% of its 52-week high, well off the lows
🔸 Earnings catalyst: August 20 results — 10 trading days away; cloud revenue growth and AI monetisation metrics will be the key prints
🔸 Volume confirmation needed: a follow-through session on 1.0x+ volume ratio would validate today's move; continued sub-0.5x volume risks a fade back toward HK$123.80

Bottom line ⚖️
A solid accumulation day — BABA gapped up, held above the previous close, and closed near the intraday high on strong bid-side pressure. But the below-average volume ratio (0.50x) means conviction is tentative. With earnings on August 20 and 37 analysts unanimously bullish at a 47% premium to current price, the setup favors upside if the cloud/AI narrative translates into numbers. Watch for volume expansion in the coming sessions to confirm.

*** This report is AI-generated. NFA. ***

[Derek Quick @derekquick1]

$NVO Novo Nordisk had a recent -16% pullback after the largest 3 month buying volume in company history after a bullish er.
The stock is now trading around its 2021 price and is down approximately 12% over the last 5 years, while $LLY is up 344%.
This is the same general price area Novo traded at before the stock rallied more than 240%.
Despite being widely viewed as the two dominant companies in the GLP-1 market, Eli Lilly is currently valued at approximately 5.5x Novo Nordisk's market capitalization.
After updating my comparison across 9 of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies, I still can't believe how many key metrics Novo Nordisk ranks #1 in.
If oral GLP-1 adoption continues accelerating globally, I believe the market may be significantly underestimating Novo's long-term earnings power.
Novo Nordisk ranks #1 out of 9 in
• #1 Highest ROIC 45.29%
• #1 Highest Pretax Margin 47.52%
• #1 Highest Net Margin 37.23%
• #1 Lowest P/E 10.45x
• #1 Lowest P/S 3.87x
• #1 Lowest P/CF 12.84x
• #1 Lowest EV/Revenue 4.50x
• #1 Lowest EV/EBIT 9.89x
• #1 Lowest EV/EBITDA 8.64x
• #1 Highest CapEx $13.51B
• #1 Upside to 52 Week High 44%
• #1 Global GLP-1 Market Share
• #1 Oral GLP-1 Launch Trajectory
• #1 Weekly Oral GLP-1 Prescription Growth
• #1 GLP-1 Prescription Scale
• #1 GLP-1 Brand Mindshare
• #1 Diabetes GLP-1 Franchise

Novo Nordisk ranks #2 behind Eli Lilly in
• #2 Highest Operating Margin 45.45% (LLY 47.30%)
• #2 Highest ROA 24.14% (LLY 24.54%)
• #2 Highest Revenue Growth 16.79% (LLY 47.44%)
• #2 Lowest PEG 0.39 (LLY 0.31)
Despite ranking #1 or #2 across nearly every metric I value most, Novo Nordisk trades at the cheapest valuation multiples among these 9 pharmaceutical companies.
5-Year Performance
NVO -12%
LLY +344%
That performance gap is remarkable.
Lilly has been one of the greatest pharmaceutical investments in history and deserves a premium.
However, today's valuation gap between these two companies is one of the widest I've seen between businesses competing in the same long-term therapeutic market.
Novo is producing industry-leading profitability while trading at valuation multiples typically associated with mature, slow-growth companies.
One of the biggest reasons I'm bullish is oral GLP-1s.
In 2024, GLP-1s demonstrated enormous demand, but injections remain a hurdle for many patients.
Millions of people who may never choose a weekly injection could be willing to take a daily pill if it helps them lose weight, improve diabetes outcomes, and reduce cardiovascular risk.
Early prescription trends for oral Wegovy have been encouraging, and competitors continue investing heavily in obesity assets, reinforcing how valuable they believe this market can become.
If oral GLP-1 adoption continues scaling globally, I believe this could become one of the largest recurring healthcare markets in history.
With today's geopolitical uncertainty, I continue to favor companies with exceptional free cash flow, elite returns on invested capital, industry-leading margins, and valuations that already reflect significant pessimism.

I've been buying shares and options over the last day, and Novo Nordisk has become one of the largest positions in my other Deep Value Fund.
If I had to hold one healthcare stock through a bear market today, Novo Nordisk would still be my pick. This post will probably get like 10 likes and like most will only get coverage when the stock is up 100% + , people will say why didn't I see this before... Same with $DK $UNH $LEU $TGT $WEN $CNC $OSCR the last year in relation to value thesis stocks I bought and did DD on. lol

[DZ @dyz_ob]

📈 Alibaba (https://t.co/92dGumF8jG $BABA) — Today's HK Trading Summary
📅 Wednesday 5 August 2026

The Numbers 💰
Close: HK$128.10 (+1.83% from prev HK$125.80)
Intraday range: HK$125.60 - HK$129.00 (2.70% swing) 📈📉
Volume: 93.38M shares | Turnover: HK$11.95B

Key signals 📡
🔸 Bid-ask ratio: -16.197 (bearish)
🔸 Volume ratio: 0.741x (below average)

Catalyst summary 🔥
🔸 Alibaba Cloud Launches OneKeyMCP Service for One-Click Access to Multiple MCP Services (8/5, Breakings)
🔸 Alibaba (https://t.co/nqStOFsXIx) launched its campus recruitment drive for Class of 2027, with AI-related roles accounting for 80% of the positions (8/5, AASTOCKS)
🔸 Alibaba Cloud: Qwen-Image-3.0 Officially Launches on Qwen AI Platform, Ranked First in China on Authoritative Benchmark (8/4, Breakings)
🔸 Alibaba Cloud's Quick BI enterprise analytics product completed an AI-native architecture upgrade (8/4, AASTOCKS)
🔸 Qwen3.8-Max launch, combined with full-stack cloud capabilities, prompted Citi and Morgan Stanley to reaffirm bullish stance on Alibaba on the same day (8/4, Gelonghui Finance)

Key Takeaways 🎯
1. Broke above previous close, held gains into the bell
📊 — Close HK$128.10 vs prev close HK$125.80 = +1.83% (a +HK$2.30 advance). Despite opening gap-up at HK$128.40 and dipping intraday to HK$125.60 (below the previous close), buyers stepped in to push back to HK$128.10. The 5-min closing auction print at HK$128.20 confirms buyer resolve into the finish, not a fade.

2. Below-average volume tempers the conviction signal
📉 — Volume ratio came in at 0.741x (below the 1.0x average) on 93.38M shares / HK$11.95B turnover. A +1.83% up-day on light volume is accumulation-lite: the trend is right but the participation isn't. Tomorrow needs >1.0x volume to validate today's breakout.

3. Bid-ask imbalance tilts bearish on the day
🐻 — Bid-ask ratio at -16.197 (negative = bearish) suggests sellers were more aggressive than buyers across the session cumulatively. This is a yellow flag against the green close — price rose but order-flow leaned sell-side. Watch for this ratio to flip positive before adding conviction.

4. AI product cadence is the engine of the thesis
🤖 — Five news items in two days, all AI-cloud related: Qwen-Image-3.0 launch (ranked #1 in China on benchmark), OneKeyMCP service, Quick BI AI-native upgrade, Qwen3.8-Max, plus campus hiring skewed 80% to AI roles. Citi and Morgan Stanley both reaffirmed bullish stances on the same day. Steady drumbeat of fundamental catalysts, not a one-off headline.

5. Analyst consensus is unanimous and the target gap is wide
🏦 — 37 analysts, 89.19% strong buy, 10.81% buy, 0% hold/sell/underperform (rating = 5/5). Average target HK$186.58 implies +45.7% upside from HK$128.10; even the lowest target (HK$135.00) sits above today's close. PE TTM 20.48x, PB 2.04x, dividend yield 0.8%. The Street sees real re-rating room here.

What to Watch 👀
🔸 Immediate support: today's low HK$125.60 — intraday dip was bought; a clean retest that holds confirms buyers in control
🔸 Previous close HK$125.80 now flips to support (broken upward and held above)
🔸 52-week range: HK$88.65 - HK$185.17 — current price sits in the lower-middle band of its annual range, leaving room before hitting the upper boundary
🔸 Watch tomorrow's volume ratio: today's 0.741x needs to climb above 1.0x to confirm the breakout; light follow-through would flag a false move
🔸 Watch the bid-ask ratio: today's -16.197 bearish tilt needs to neutralise or flip positive to confirm genuine accumulation

Bottom line ⚖️
Modest accumulation day: +1.83% close above previous close, supported by an AI-heavy catalyst drumbeat (Qwen-Image-3.0, Qwen3.8-Max, OneKeyMCP, Citi/Morgan Stanley reaffirmations) and a unanimous 37-analyst bullish consensus (avg target HK$186.58). However, below-average volume (0.741x) and a bearish bid-ask imbalance (-16.197) make this a low-conviction up-day. Next session needs follow-through volume above 1.0x and a positive bid-ask flip to upgrade today from accumulation-lite to confirmed breakout.

*** This report is AI generated. NFA. ***

[DZ @dyz_ob]

📈 **Alibaba (https://t.co/92dGumF8jG $BABA) — Today's HK Trading Summary**
📅 Tuesday 4 August 2026

The Numbers 💰
Close: HK$125.80 (+0.48% from prev HK$125.20)
Intraday range: HK$124.70 – HK$129.20 (3.59% swing) 📈📉
Volume: 125.36M shares | Turnover: HK$15.83B

Key signals 📡
🔸 Bid-ask ratio: -23.698 (bearish — ask_vol 400,900 nearly 2x bid_vol 215,800)
🔸 Volume ratio: 1.08x (above average)

Catalyst summary 🔥
🔸 Alibaba Cloud's enterprise-grade intelligent analytics product, Quick BI, has completed an AI-native architecture upgrade.
🔸 The launch of Qwen3.8-Max, combined with benefits from full-stack cloud capabilities, prompted Citi and Morgan Stanley to reaffirm their bullish stance on Alibaba on the same day.
🔸 Morgan Stanley: Alibaba (https://t.co/42dO2haZUk) remains the sector's top pick, with Alibaba Cloud revenue growth expected to accelerate.
🔸 Citi: Alibaba's (https://t.co/nqStOFsXIx) Qwen3.8-Max model demonstrates significantly improved benchmark performance.
🔸 Market Chatter: Alibaba-Backed Vast Weighs Hong Kong IPO

Key Takeaways 🎯
1. Qwen3.8-Max draws dual-bank bullish endorsement
🤖 — The Qwen3.8-Max launch triggered same-day reaffirmations from both Citi and Morgan Stanley, with Morgan Stanley naming BABA its sector top pick and flagging accelerating Alibaba Cloud revenue. With 37 analysts at a unanimous rating of 5 (89.19% strong buy, 10.81% buy, 0% hold/sell), the Street sees clear runway — average target HK$186.58 implies ~48% upside from today's HK$125.80 close.

2. Upbeat open, weaker close — sellers dominated the afternoon
📉 — Stock opened at HK$126.80, rallied to HK$129.20 (intraday high), but closed at HK$125.80 — just HK$0.60 above prev close HK$125.20. The close sits well below the session high, meaning roughly HK$3.40 of intraday gains were given back. The 5-min closing auction price of HK$125.60 was even weaker, confirming selling pressure into the bell.

3. Bearish bid-ask imbalance at the close
📊 — Bid-ask ratio of -23.698 reflects ask_vol of 400,900 against bid_vol of 215,800 — sellers were nearly 2x more aggressive than buyers at the close. Despite the marginally positive close (+0.48%), the order flow at session end leans bearish. This is a yellow flag for tomorrow's open.

4. Modestly elevated volume — catalyst interest, not capitulation
📈 — Volume ratio of 1.08x means today's 125.36M shares and HK$15.83B turnover were slightly above the stock's average pace. This level of participation is consistent with news-driven interest from the Qwen3.8-Max launch and analyst notes, not a volume spike signalling institutional repositioning. Turnover rate of 0.654% confirms moderate but not extraordinary activity.

5. Alibaba Cloud AI ecosystem deepening
🏦 — Beyond the model launch, Alibaba Cloud's Quick BI completed an AI-native architecture upgrade — another data point in the cloud-and-AI flywheel narrative. Combined with Morgan Stanley's cloud revenue acceleration thesis and the Vast IPO chatter (Alibaba-backed), the ecosystem catalysts are compounding. The question is whether revenue acceleration shows up in the next quarterly print.

What to Watch 👀
🔸 Immediate support: HK$124.70 (today's low) — a breach would signal further downside
🔸 Immediate resistance: HK$125.20 (previous close) — already reclaimed today, now acts as near-term floor; next resistance at today's high HK$129.20
🔸 52-week range: HK$88.65 – HK$185.17 (current close sits ~32% below the 52-week high)
🔸 Watch if BABA can hold above HK$125.20 into tomorrow — the bearish bid-ask close needs to be reversed by renewed buying
🔸 Upcoming: Alibaba Cloud revenue acceleration in next earnings; Qwen3.8-Max enterprise adoption metrics; Vast HK IPO timing

Bottom line ⚖️
A marginally green close (+0.48%) masks a session where sellers clearly controlled the afternoon — the stock gave back HK$3.40 from intraday highs and closed with a bearish bid-ask imbalance. The Qwen3.8-Max catalyst and unanimous analyst bullishness (37/37 buy or strong buy) provide a strong fundamental floor, but the tape says distribution, not accumulation. Tomorrow needs to reclaim HK$126.80 (today's open) to invalidate the bearish close signal.

** This report is AI generated. NFA. **

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Brazil is on the verge of surpassing the United States as the world's largest agricultural exporter, per FT

[Hugo Alves, CFA @HugoMCRAlves]

🔥🚀

[A.J. Button @AJButton2]

Alibaba's latest model Qwen 3.8 max is going open weight next week!

The company says that 3.8 Max beats Claude Fable 5 on several performance benchmarks.

Pricing starts at $2 per million input tokens and $6 per million output tokens.

Fable 5 pricing: $10/million input, $50/million output. $BABA